Last Predictions of the Year

[Mister Tee]

Apparently Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor is being pushed hard in the best actress category for Ava DuVernay’s Origin in the last couple of days.

I’m feeling Andrea Riseborough vibes.

I actually saw the coming attraction yesterday and wondered why there hasn't been any mainstream effort to support the film. It looked quite interesting, and as I recall it was decently received at Toronto. The way they're releasing it, it feels more like a 2024 film (which might have been a better strategy, given the high level of competition this year).

[mlrg]

Apparently Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor is being pushed hard in the best actress category for Ava DuVernay’s Origin in the last couple of days.

I’m feeling Andrea Riseborough vibes.

[Reza]

More on The Color Purple. Over the last two days, Taraji P. Henson came out complaining that Oprah only gave them rental cars to drive themselves to set (not drivers) and Danielle Brooks complained that they didn't have dressing room or food for rehearsals.

Are those valid complaints? In a $100m movie, sure! But what is going on? How are these complaints happening during what should be the most fawning period of the film's release -- during Oscar voting! Are interviewers literally asking them "What was the shittiest part of making The Color Purple?" Are they running away from it?

Someone should show them pictures of Gaza, Ukraine or anywhere in Africa. That’s something to complaint about…

Absolutely!!

[mlrg]

More on The Color Purple. Over the last two days, Taraji P. Henson came out complaining that Oprah only gave them rental cars to drive themselves to set (not drivers) and Danielle Brooks complained that they didn't have dressing room or food for rehearsals.

Are those valid complaints? In a $100m movie, sure! But what is going on? How are these complaints happening during what should be the most fawning period of the film's release -- during Oscar voting! Are interviewers literally asking them "What was the shittiest part of making The Color Purple?" Are they running away from it?

Someone should show them pictures of Gaza, Ukraine or anywhere in Africa. That’s something to complaint about…

[Mister Tee]

My wife loved a story about a couple fighting in a restaurant, where the wife finally said, "It isn't the egg roll, Harry; it's the last five years." Like the rest of you, I doubt these all-too-public expressions of annoyance are really about these minor issues (though, come down to it, expecting actors in a $100 million dollar movie to brown-bag it would be absurd). I think they're about the now-undeniable fact that a movie they'd been imagining all year would be a major triumph/career-enhancer is instead turning into basically a belly-flop.

It's not a mega-disaster -- not Cats -- but it's at this moment the biggest disappointment of the holiday releases. Take a look at this weekend's grosses. Though the post-holiday weekend almost always sees movies fall off a cliff, most films, in fact, have held up reasonably well -- The Iron Claw and The Boys in the Boat are looking to end up with reasonable totals, and the piffle that's Anyone but You is turning into a major word-of-mouth hit. Even Aquaman is not quite the catastrophe expected, falling only 41% from New Years weekend. But the Color Purple? Down 59% -- far and away the worst showing of the weekend. It may not even make $75 million domestic...and, remember: it began with an $18 million opening day. This is a Batman and Robin-level decline.

So, I'd guess that's what Taraji and Danielle are subtextually complaining about, when they make their comments about drivers and food. And it couldn't be worse timing for the film's already-shaky Oscar campaign.

[Big Magilla]

Taraji has been non-stop complaining since the film opened.

As for the catering issue, they were fed during production but not during rehearsals where there was no crew present. That's probably more a dig at the director than the producers.

Danielle is seated at a table at the Globes with Leo, Marty, Bobby, Oprah, and Fantasia. I'm sure they will be all smiles no matter what happens.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
Everything I’ve read indicates that it’s standard to feed your cast and crew on a set, even for lower budget projects. The caterer is often listed in the credits. More important is Sabin’s point: this is perhaps a sign of disgruntlement from a cast that were perhaps promised more than what has been delivered.

That is exactly my thinking. Everyone involved knows this ain't gonna do what they wanted it to which honestly tends to be the case with most Oprah theatrical film productions. I'm just surprised that they're expressing it this openly so soon after the film was released.

[danfrank]

Everything I’ve read indicates that it’s standard to feed your cast and crew on a set, even for lower budget projects. The caterer is often listed in the credits. More important is Sabin’s point: this is perhaps a sign of disgruntlement from a cast that were perhaps promised more than what has been delivered.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Taraji is always complaining about something. If she didn't want to drive herself, she could have had one of the numerous members of her entourage drive her.

Danielle's complaint about a lack of dressing rooms is a valid one if it's true. Not sure what her issue is about food. Is it that there was no food available or that she had to pay for it herself? If the former, it's a valid complaint, if the latter, she could have done what working people the world over do if they can't afford to buy lunch, make their own at home and bring it to the job.

I mean, the issue is that they weren't treated in a manner they thought they deserved. Putting aside their validity...

I'm just surprised they're complaining now. At this point in time. Two weeks after the film as released, in its awards/positivity zeitgeist, when everyone is usually lockstep on message.

[Big Magilla]

Taraji is always complaining about something. If she didn't want to drive herself, she could have had one of the numerous members of her entourage drive her.

Danielle's complaint about a lack of dressing rooms is a valid one if it's true. Not sure what her issue is about food. Is it that there was no food available or that she had to pay for it herself? If the former, it's a valid complaint, if the latter, she could have done what working people the world over do if they can't afford to buy lunch, make their own at home and bring it to the job.

[Sabin]

More on The Color Purple. Over the last two days, Taraji P. Henson came out complaining that Oprah only gave them rental cars to drive themselves to set (not drivers) and Danielle Brooks complained that they didn't have dressing room or food for rehearsals.

Are those valid complaints? In a $100m movie, sure! But what is going on? How are these complaints happening during what should be the most fawning period of the film's release -- during Oscar voting! Are interviewers literally asking them "What was the shittiest part of making The Color Purple?" Are they running away from it?

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Its holiday-enhanced weekend was at first over-reported, ended up at 11.7, which is down a third from that one opening DAY. It's fallen out of the top five, below movies like The Boys in the Boat. Barring a counter-gravity hold this weekend, it should drop by at least 50%, and, from there, it's hard to see it getting much above 80. The numbers okri was hoping to see appear out of the question.

For all that, it could do well at SAG, who've been kind in the past both to musicals and to films with predominantly black casts. And I'm not sure that means much to its Oscar chances...sometimes, a movie that's existed primarily as blogger's dream has held on against all odds (The Green Mile, War Horse), but it's not generally the way to bet.

Ouch. I didn't see that it fell below The Boys in the Boat. Not a good sign.

[Mister Tee]

Okri wrote
d) I'm also curious about The Color Purple. I left the film pretty "meh" - I'm glad I saw it, but won't think much about it after the season is over. But I expected it to be doing better than it is at the box office, if I'm being honest. I thought it would end it's run in similar territory to what other musical adaptations made pre-pandemic (120-150 million) [I'm thinking things like Mamma Mia, Les Miserables, Into the Woods]. Is that still reasonable? Because I think that's what it needs to make a dent in this race.

I'm usually bad at projecting the box offie but it's just about cleared $50m in a week. Unless it takes a big fall (and it does have to contend with the Mean Girls musical), I I think $100m is in the cards. I think the lowest it goes is... $85m?

I've been severely under the weather since Christmas, haven't had the energy to weigh in anything requiring thought, but I'll toss in here that I'd bet on closer to 85 than 100. The gross is $48 million after 9 days, but about 40% of that came in the big opening day -- which counts, of course, but appears to have been Oprah-inflated, and the film has been dropping like a boulder since.

Its holiday-enhanced weekend was at first over-reported, ended up at 11.7, which is down a third from that one opening DAY. It's fallen out of the top five, below movies like The Boys in the Boat. Barring a counter-gravity hold this weekend, it should drop by at least 50%, and, from there, it's hard to see it getting much above 80. The numbers okri was hoping to see appear out of the question.

For all that, it could do well at SAG, who've been kind in the past both to musicals and to films with predominantly black casts. And I'm not sure that means much to its Oscar chances...sometimes, a movie that's existed primarily as blogger's dream has held on against all odds (The Green Mile, War Horse), but it's not generally the way to bet.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Some musings instead of predictions

a) I'm really gonna need BAFTA to go over the top forAll of Us Strangers for me to continue predicting it outside of screenplay - though the Barbie news has me worried even there. Maybe throw the supporting categories out of kilter and nominate Foy, Bell AND Mescal or something.

Andrew Haigh's films haven't gone over big with BAFTA in the past. Charlotte Rampling wasn't even nominated for Best Actress by them (they opted instead for Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van). I'm going to check it out this weekend but I bet All of Us Strangers will probably do okay with them (3-4 noms). And who knows? Maybe that will be enough.

Okri wrote
b) One thing I wondered post-Birdman was if Emma Stone's commitment to comedy would hinder her Oscar success. Obviously not, but I find it really interesting that all her previous nominations (and this year, should it happen) have been for comic performances, which isn't something we often see from AMPAS.

It's fascinating. Both Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence have been Capital M Millennials, comedy has generally been their bag, and it's worked reasonably well with Academy voters. They've gotten more nominations than anyone else in their age cohort. I think it has quite a bit to do with finding the right artistic partnerships. I'm also surprised at how adept Emma Stone is at playing women from other eras in history. She's always struck me as a very contemporary figure.

Okri wrote
c) I'm quite curious about how Poor Things does overall. It seems to have a reasonable high basement (Picture, director, actress, adapted screenplay, costumes at bare minimum, I'd assert) with a fair number of other achievable slots (supporting actor x2, production design, score, film editing, make-up). In 2019, we saw four films get 10+ nominations for the first time. I wonder if we'll see something similar, with Barbie, Poor Things and Oppenheimer dominating (and maybe Killers of the Flower Moon too). Mister Tee mentioned this at the beginning of the season, if I recall, but it's interesting watching it come to fruition.

I mentioned it in the past as well. I thought if Maestro went over big then this year might break the overall record. I suppose that's possible. The only sense that we've gotten that Maestro isn't in the mix is Twitter scuttlebutt

Okri wrote
d) I'm also curious about The Color Purple. I left the film pretty "meh" - I'm glad I saw it, but won't think much about it after the season is over. But I expected it to be doing better than it is at the box office, if I'm being honest. I thought it would end it's run in similar territory to what other musical adaptations made pre-pandemic (120-150 million) [I'm thinking things like Mamma Mia, Les Miserables, Into the Woods]. Is that still reasonable? Because I think that's what it needs to make a dent in this race.

I'm usually bad at projecting the box offie but it's just about cleared $50m in a week. Unless it takes a big fall (and it does have to contend with the Mean Girls musical), I I think $100m is in the cards. I think the lowest it goes is... $85m?

As for how it does overall, ask me after SAG and PGA announce their nominees.

Okri wrote
e) Is there any category that has exemplified the schism between mainstream filmmaking and AMPAS/Oscars more than Best Director? From mainstream filmmaking, the reduction in Hollywood making serious adult-oriented films means that instead of directors slowing accumulating credits and gradually introducing themselves to AMPAS we have directors making the leap to best picture and director nominations/wins from pure box office results. For example, Ron Howard had several Oscar nominated films before making a best picture nominee and eventually winning. However, because of the shift in filmmaking, you’ve got directors like Adam McKay and Todd Phillips leaping from box office filmmaking (for lack of a better word) to Oscar nominated films (I will note that Phillips got an Oscar nomination for Borat, but come on, you didn’t know that either)….

Meanwhile, the diversity and internationalization push in AMPAS means that foreign directors seem to be breaking through faster than before. The directing branch has been reasonably kind to foreign filmmakers of course but directors nominated seemed to be heavyweights – Bergman, Fellini, Kurosawa etc. Then, maybe not quite at that level, but recognized by AMPAS in the foreign category before – Almodovar, Haneke, Vinterberg. At the same time, foreign language directors are also “internationalizing” and switching between English and non-English films fairly comfortably in a way I don’t think happened before. Think of a year like 2018. Directors from the blockbuster tradition (McKay, Cuaron), internationalization (Lanthimos, Cuaron, Pawlikowski) and the “old fashioned” accrual way (Lee, Cuaron, Lanthimos) get nominated. It’s not exact, as the overlap suggests, but I think it’s interesting nonetheless. Or a year like 2010 - three of the foreign language nominees were helmed by directors that went on to get best directing nominations (Innaritu, Villeneuve, Lanthimos). I just find it really interesting to ponder

You left off Ruben Ostlund.

The internationalization of the director's branch has been a very heartening thing to behold.

[Okri]

Some musings instead of predictions

a) I'm really gonna need BAFTA to go over the top forAll of Us Strangers for me to continue predicting it outside of screenplay - though the Barbie news has me worried even there. Maybe throw the supporting categories out of kilter and nominate Foy, Bell AND Mescal or something.

b) One thing I wondered post-Birdman was if Emma Stone's commitment to comedy would hinder her Oscar success. Obviously not, but I find it really interesting that all her previous nominations (and this year, should it happen) have been for comic performances, which isn't something we often see from AMPAS.

c) I'm quite curious about how Poor Things does overall. It seems to have a reasonable high basement (Picture, director, actress, adapted screenplay, costumes at bare minimum, I'd assert) with a fair number of other achievable slots (supporting actor x2, production design, score, film editing, make-up). In 2019, we saw four films get 10+ nominations for the first time. I wonder if we'll see something similar, with Barbie, Poor Things and Oppenheimer dominating (and maybe Killers of the Flower Moon too). Mister Tee mentioned this at the beginning of the season, if I recall, but it's interesting watching it come to fruition.

d) I'm also curious about The Color Purple. I left the film pretty "meh" - I'm glad I saw it, but won't think much about it after the season is over. But I expected it to be doing better than it is at the box office, if I'm being honest. I thought it would end it's run in similar territory to what other musical adaptations made pre-pandemic (120-150 million) [I'm thinking things like Mamma Mia, Les Miserables, Into the Woods]. Is that still reasonable? Because I think that's what it needs to make a dent in this race.

e) Is there any category that has exemplified the schism between mainstream filmmaking and AMPAS/Oscars more than Best Director? From mainstream filmmaking, the reduction in Hollywood making serious adult-oriented films means that instead of directors slowing accumulating credits and gradually introducing themselves to AMPAS we have directors making the leap to best picture and director nominations/wins from pure box office results. For example, Ron Howard had several Oscar nominated films before making a best picture nominee and eventually winning. However, because of the shift in filmmaking, you’ve got directors like Adam McKay and Todd Phillips leaping from box office filmmaking (for lack of a better word) to Oscar nominated films (I will note that Phillips got an Oscar nomination for Borat, but come on, you didn’t know that either)….

Meanwhile, the diversity and internationalization push in AMPAS means that foreign directors seem to be breaking through faster than before. The directing branch has been reasonably kind to foreign filmmakers of course but directors nominated seemed to be heavyweights – Bergman, Fellini, Kurosawa etc. Then, maybe not quite at that level, but recognized by AMPAS in the foreign category before – Almodovar, Haneke, Vinterberg. At the same time, foreign language directors are also “internationalizing” and switching between English and non-English films fairly comfortably in a way I don’t think happened before. Think of a year like 2018. Directors from the blockbuster tradition (McKay, Cuaron), internationalization (Lanthimos, Cuaron, Pawlikowski) and the “old fashioned” accrual way (Lee, Cuaron, Lanthimos) get nominated. It’s not exact, as the overlap suggests, but I think it’s interesting nonetheless. Or a year like 2010 - three of the foreign language nominees were helmed by directors that went on to get best directing nominations (Innaritu, Villeneuve, Lanthimos). I just find it really interesting to ponder