I think losing for "Til it Happens to You" pretty much broke Warren. I actually don't dislike her nominations prior to that and straight up like a handful of them. But yeah, the desire of the musicians/composers to just throw nominations at her like candy is parody at this point.
If the category was a little less samey I could see Naatu Naatu losing. But I think Lift Me Up, Hold My Hand and Applause share the same DNA and would be surprised if "This is a Life" could do it.
Categories One-by-One: Song
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Mister Tee
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Categories One-by-One: Song
Still a bunch of categories undiscussed, so, to get back on track:
The Nominees:
Applause (Tell it Like a Woman)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This Is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
I just forced myself to listen to Applause on YouTube, and it's a perfect match: obscure film yields utterly generic nominated song. I realize Warren has long since become a Lucci-like standing joke in this category, but I find the whole thing rather sad -- her first couple of nominations (Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now and Because You Loved Me) were, if not great, certainly credible best song contenders. This endless string of mediocre nominations has, to my mind, diminished her rather than elevating her, and I can't believe her friends in the branch don't understand that.
This is a Life is far more interesting, musically, but I have to admit, I didn't even remember hearing it when I saw the movie (and I'm a stay-through-all-credits guy). Let's stipulate: if this song wins next Sunday, Everything Everywhere is headed for a Slumdog type landslide.
Lately I'm hearing a lot of people suggesting the two pop divas with the blockbuster-derived songs ought to be considered the top contenders, and there's a case to be made. I opined a few years ago -- after the "surprising" Writing's on the Wall upset over Till It Happens to You -- that we shouldn't overlook the correlation between grosses and winning this category. $800 million and $400 million (almost inconceivable numbers) certainly provide exposure; people have heard these two songs. Given the binary choice, I'd definitely opt for Rihanna this time out -- I think, melodically, Lift Me Up is considerably more memorable than Hold My Hand, plus, of course, Gaga already has her Oscar. And Rihanna is Very Hot right now, after her Super Bowl appearance. If one of these two wins, I'd guess it would be she.
But, of course, there's also Naatu Naatu to deal with -- the song that triumphed at the Globes and Broadcasters, and became the overwhelming favorite...until recently, when people have seemed to get cold feet. My grosses = song Oscar theory could make one a little queasy on this choice -- given those gigantic numbers for Top Gun and Wakanda. But, in this brave new streaming world, I'm not sure RRR's run on Netflix hasn't stomped all over those numbers -- word was, it had some of the highest watch totals they've ever managed. There's also the fact that RRR was limited to this one nomination, where Maverick and Wakanda both got into more categories, including glamour ones. These are all decent arguments. But I'd posit that RRR is pretty wildly popular despite its sole nod. I wonder if the analogy might be Once -- another film that was beloved by a lot of people, found itself limited to a single Oscar nomination -- song (even losing an original screenplay slot to Lars and the Real Girl) -- but won that category to wild enthusiasm.
Anyway, that's my take on it: Naatu Naatu my bet, with Lift Me Up the possible upset.
The Nominees:
Applause (Tell it Like a Woman)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This Is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
I just forced myself to listen to Applause on YouTube, and it's a perfect match: obscure film yields utterly generic nominated song. I realize Warren has long since become a Lucci-like standing joke in this category, but I find the whole thing rather sad -- her first couple of nominations (Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now and Because You Loved Me) were, if not great, certainly credible best song contenders. This endless string of mediocre nominations has, to my mind, diminished her rather than elevating her, and I can't believe her friends in the branch don't understand that.
This is a Life is far more interesting, musically, but I have to admit, I didn't even remember hearing it when I saw the movie (and I'm a stay-through-all-credits guy). Let's stipulate: if this song wins next Sunday, Everything Everywhere is headed for a Slumdog type landslide.
Lately I'm hearing a lot of people suggesting the two pop divas with the blockbuster-derived songs ought to be considered the top contenders, and there's a case to be made. I opined a few years ago -- after the "surprising" Writing's on the Wall upset over Till It Happens to You -- that we shouldn't overlook the correlation between grosses and winning this category. $800 million and $400 million (almost inconceivable numbers) certainly provide exposure; people have heard these two songs. Given the binary choice, I'd definitely opt for Rihanna this time out -- I think, melodically, Lift Me Up is considerably more memorable than Hold My Hand, plus, of course, Gaga already has her Oscar. And Rihanna is Very Hot right now, after her Super Bowl appearance. If one of these two wins, I'd guess it would be she.
But, of course, there's also Naatu Naatu to deal with -- the song that triumphed at the Globes and Broadcasters, and became the overwhelming favorite...until recently, when people have seemed to get cold feet. My grosses = song Oscar theory could make one a little queasy on this choice -- given those gigantic numbers for Top Gun and Wakanda. But, in this brave new streaming world, I'm not sure RRR's run on Netflix hasn't stomped all over those numbers -- word was, it had some of the highest watch totals they've ever managed. There's also the fact that RRR was limited to this one nomination, where Maverick and Wakanda both got into more categories, including glamour ones. These are all decent arguments. But I'd posit that RRR is pretty wildly popular despite its sole nod. I wonder if the analogy might be Once -- another film that was beloved by a lot of people, found itself limited to a single Oscar nomination -- song (even losing an original screenplay slot to Lars and the Real Girl) -- but won that category to wild enthusiasm.
Anyway, that's my take on it: Naatu Naatu my bet, with Lift Me Up the possible upset.