Alphabet City

[Reza]

Park’s remarkable work would be a wild-hair hope.

Mister Tee, are you serious? What "remarkable work"? She was sullen faced througout even when discussing the episode about her mother. She sleep walked through this very long film. Ditto Hidetoshi Nishijima. Anyway that's what I saw. Like I said before I wish I could have seen or understood this film through your eyes.

I liked the actress who played the driver far better than you, but she's not the actress I'm citing. Park is the mute actress who plays Sonia in Uncle Vanya.

Yes, you are absolutely correct she was very good.

[Mister Tee]

Park’s remarkable work would be a wild-hair hope.

Mister Tee, are you serious? What "remarkable work"? She was sullen faced througout even when discussing the episode about her mother. She sleep walked through this very long film. Ditto Hidetoshi Nishijima. Anyway that's what I saw. Like I said before I wish I could have seen or understood this film through your eyes.

I liked the actress who played the driver far better than you, but she's not the actress I'm citing. Park is the mute actress who plays Sonia in Uncle Vanya.

[Reza]

Park’s remarkable work would be a wild-hair hope.

Mister Tee, are you serious? What "remarkable work"? She was sullen faced througout even when discussing the episode about her mother. She sleep walked through this very long film. Ditto Hidetoshi Nishijima. Anyway that's what I saw. Like I said before I wish I could have seen or understood this film through your eyes.

[Mister Tee]

I don’t remember exactly when or why I stopped posting alphabetical guides for following the Oscar nominations -– those early clues the alphabetical sequence can give as to which candidates still have a chance and which are facing doom. Maybe it was the year Seth McFarlane surprised us by announcing things in random order. (Wouldn’t you love to bring that tradition back Tuesday? Best actress alone would be torture.) In any case, I find many of this year’s nominations particularly intriguing, so I’ve decided to revive the tradition, and offer a road-map through the above-the-line categories.

The published guide says we’ll be getting the two supporting and screenplay categories during the pre-8:30 EST segment, so let’s start with those.

For supporting actress, I presume most are working from the five-most-likely template that appeared initially at the Globes. Caitriona Balfe will be first to run the gauntlet –- unless there’s a candidate I’m not thinking of, she’ll be in or out right at the top. Next come two of our interloper-hopefuls –- Cate Blanchett (for either movie, but probably Nightmare Alley) and Jessie Buckley. If one of those two is included, the template will have been shattered, and we’ll start thinking in terms of who’s missing. If, though, Ariana Debose is the second name read, we’ll still be on track. Next will come the spot for Ann Dowd –- who’s nailed just enough mentions this season to remain a possibility. If she shows up, again the template notion is gone. But if, instead, Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis follow, we’ll be fully on track. Unfortunately for Ruth Negga, she’ll still not be safe at that point, as two not-impossibles, Kathryn Hunter and Rita Moreno, precede her in the alphabet. If neither shows up, Negga should be along to finish out the slate. Freakish scenario, though: if, somehow, Negga is not the final name – through omission, or if, even with her, only four candidates have emerged -- my out-there stab for sleeper choice would be Yoo-rim Park of Drive My Car. If there’s one big way AMPAS differs from all the precursors who’ve set us up, it’s openness to foreign-language contenders; Park’s remarkable work would be a wild-hair hope.

Supporting actor operates way differently, as only two candidates seem close to locked in, and they come rather far down in the alphabet; a number of holding-hope candidates will be assessed before them. Ben Affleck has the good (?) fortune to know his fate immediately, and Bradley Cooper ought to be next to know. The two Belfast guys follow shortly after, Jamie Dornan first, Ciaran Hinds later, with faintly-alive Mike Faist showing up in between. Things will be moving quite quickly at this point, but, if we were allowed to stop and think, this would be a moment we might take stock. If three slots have already been filled at that juncture, the game is likely over -- Troy Kotsur would almost surely follow, and our one 100%-guaranteed candidate, Kodi Smit-McPhee, would round out the pack. But if one/two/none of those early candidates turn up, there are several hopefuls still in line for their shot -- Jared Leto (who Nate Rogers calls a lock, but just as many are omitting), Jesse Plemons (who finally got a glimmer of hope from BAFTA, but has always seemed a solid possibility), and J.K. Simmons (former winner, matched to a potential best actress nominee). Smit-McPhee should round out the list, but, if by any miracle he’s only 4th…I’ll toss out Jeffrey Wright’s name, because I think he hasn’t got enough attention this season.

The screenplay nominees are, as we know, delivered by title. On the adapted side, CODA would appear to be certain to lead off. The Drive My Car-or-not question will be answered immediately after, and the Dune-or-not query next. If both are answered in the affirmative, the rest of the recitation will simply tell us which one other film will join Power of the Dog on the list. I’d expect it would be The Lost Daughter, which should follow instantly. If only one or neither of the questionable entries makes the cut (or if Lost Daughter is unexpectedly omitted), we’ll listen for Nightmare Alley or Passing prior to Power of the Dog, or any combination of tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth or West Side Story after.

Original screenplay has more moving parts -- though it’s always possible the WGA list, with Belfast trading places with one unlucky nominee, could be all the action. Being the Ricardos gets its verdict quickest; if Belfast is the first name read out, Sorkin has crapped out. dws’ prediction has me putting C’mon C’mon next, though I haven’t really been much considering it –- till remembering Mills has done a surprise show-up in the past, with 20th Century Women. The some-think-it’s-locked/some-think-it’s-iffy Don’t Look Up will be judged next. If, by this point, three nominees have already been locked in, it’s very likely King Richard and Licorice Pizza are the remaining titles. But, if not, there are potential candidates from previously nominated writers -- The French Dispatch and A Hero. And there’s a slim chance King Richard doesn’t survive; not much chance of Licorice Pizza missing. If Licorice Pizza isn’t the fifth screenplay cited, we have a group of indies and foreigns -– Mass, Parallel Mothers, Pig and The Worst Person in the World lined up to take their shot.

As I said, these (plus a few minor categories) will be given in that 8:18-8:25 or so stretch. We’ll have a few minutes of commercials and GMA news, during which we can ponder where this first batch of nominees will lead us, then we’ll hold onto our hats as, after journeying through most of the techs, we finally get to the top categories.

Director, like screenplay, is done by film title –- meaning Kenneth Branagh’s hopes will be either fulfilled or dashed in the opening moment. Drive My Car’s Hamaguchi should be on the line next. If these two both make it, the lane will be narrower for our remaining hopefuls; even moreso if Villeneuve follows for Dune. The succeeding elimination derby begins immediately, as Anderson’s Licorice Pizza would be next in the queue. If all four of these have turned up, your category is finished, as no one doubts Campion is guaranteed a spot. If only three have been cited (or two –- if we hit 2012 territory), long-shots may start to have hope -- The Lost Daughter’s Gyllenhaal, Parallel Mothers’ Almodovar -– or, after Campion, The Tragedy of Macbeth’s Coen. Or, we could revert to the least revolutionary of all, and Spielberg is rewarded for West Side Story. Being alphabetically last means Spielberg has to sit helplessly through the process –- but he could be rewarded as the last man standing.

Barring a startling snub, best actor is the simplest of categories, with four men seeming certain to take spots. That open slot, though, has a long list of people vying for it -- some dull, some exciting -- and discovering just where in the alphabet that mystery name will turn up is the only game. The ho-hum/ repeat-SAG choice, Javier Bardem, will be first to know his fate. If he’s cited, the game’s over early. Same –- though in a more intriguing way –- with Nicolas Cage, next in line. If Benedict Cumberbatch is instead the first name spoke, the contest continues -– though it could be settled soon after, as first DiCaprio (on fire post-BAFTA), then Peter Dinklage (the hottest prospect in long-ago December) pass through. I’d say it’s 90% certain we know the fifth man by this point. But, if not…we’ll take a brief break to announce Andrew Garfield, then consider a three-man team of Cooper Hoffman (my sleeper pick of a few weeks ago); Hidetoshi Nishijima (dws’ prediction, and one I also take very seriously), and, why not go for it, Simon Rex –- with the others sucking up most first place votes, a wild card with enthusiasm might just carry the day. We assume Will Smith and Denzel Washington will follow whichever three have been chosen –- though I will say that if, somehow, the group pre-Smith has grown to 4, it’s Denzel, not Will, who’ll get the surprise snub.

Then it’s on to best actress, Big Casino of this year’s announcements. I honestly hate to see nominations day arrive; it’s been so much fun doing endless permutations, picking which five will survive this first round. Jessica Chastain, like Affleck and Branagh, has the dubious pleasure of seeing her fate decided at the opening gun. If she’s cited, space gets tighter for the remaining contenders. If she isn’t, the rest can feel their hopes rise. Olivia Colman has seemed more certain to nail a spot, but, having missed at what seems her home BAFTA court, I don’t think she can put it in the bank. As with Chastain, her presence closes off space, but her absence would create breathing room. Many of the Oscar pundits are claiming to hear big buzz for Penelope Cruz; given how wrong they’ve been about so many things this season, this may be just more echo chamber talk –- but maybe not; as many (including those in okri’s article) have noted, the biggest change in AMPAS of late has been its international expansion, and these nominations may be more open to this highly praised performance than US-based guilds.

If all three of these initial candidates turn up, some in the blogging community will declare it over –- they’re convinced Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks. You know my already-expressed opinion: no locks in a year this crazy; definitely stick around for the rest of the list. And a real question could arise at this point in the alphabet: is there universal agreement whether Lady Gaga is filed under L or G? The Globes put her after Kidman (as Eric decreed), but SAG has her above Hudson and BAFTA prior to Haim. Imagine if AMPAS opts for the Eric/Globe style, and she’s bypassed for Haim? I could imagine heart attacks across the Internet -- which could then turn to sighs of relief when she shows up late in the list. Or I could imagine her left off for real.

Anyway, there’s no point in playing the “if there are two/three nominees by now” game here -- you’ll all have to figure that out for yourselves. The fact is that Alana Haim, Jennifer Hudson, Emilia Jones, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart and Rachel Zegler all have some reason (however faint) to consider themselves alive in this race, and all dwell at this end of the alphabet, so we’ll either see them full of hope -- because the top of the list has crapped out -- or bereft, because there just aren’t enough spots for them. No one is certain, no one can be dismissed. Either way, it'll all go by in a few moments, and we’ll begin the later job of picking a winner from the five finalists.

After that, best picture will be anti-climactic. We’re pretty sure of 7 or so of the nominees, so it’s only a game of figuring out the marginals. Being the Ricardos will have its fate decided earliest (if it hasn’t already been prefigured, by lower categories). Belfast and CODA should breeze in, and we’ll face the in-or-out on, in succession, Don't Look Up and Drive My Car. It’s possible we’ll know the full slate by the time we’ve passed this alphabet section. Dune is of course a sure thing, but, if spots are still open, I suppose House of Gucci isn’t out of the question. King Richard and Licorice Pizza should follow as sure-shots; then, if the roster remains unfilled, Nightmare Alley can take its shot. The Power of the Dog will accept its nomination, and, if there are any unclaimed slots left, tick…tick…Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth will battle over them…with West Side Story waiting to claim the anchor position.

I could say “it’s as simple as that”, but, looking back over what I’ve written, I see it’s not remotely simple. This year’s race is a pretty complicated mess…and, though all too many such races have had their suspense stripped, my instinct is this one won’t coalesce quite so easily. Catch you all on the other side of Tuesday morning, to discuss how right or wrong all this was.