Los Angeles Film Critics Association

[The Original BJ]

I apparently seem to be alone in thinking that this "Clint is overdue" factor is a non-factor. I don't care if he doesn't have an ACTING prize. The man has four trophies and a Thalberg. Hollywood knows he's been plenty rewarded.

It seems to me that a second trophy to Penn or a first to Langella or I guess even one to Mickey Rourke if the performance is that great make a lot more sense to me.

John Wayne didn't deserve to win in '69, but at least he actually WAS overdue, and you could see why sentiment carried the day. I have a tough time seeing Eastwood win the prize outright, especially over a strong field.

[Big Magilla]

Pre-emptive is the wrong word here. "Predisposed" is the word I think we should be using.

We are all predisposed to like or not like certain films based on past experience, but we can't know for sure that we will like or loathe a particular film until we've seen it.

That said, I still cringe every time I see the Gran Torino trailer. And all this hype about giving Clint an Oscar for acting because he's "due" reminds me of the argument for giving John Wayne an Oscar 39 years ago for True Grit. Wayne didn't deserve it over Hoffman and Voight and I'm predisposed to doubt Clint deserves it over Penn, Rourke and Langella. Besides which he already has four freakin' Oscars.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1228971820

[mashari]

GO, Penelope!

[Penelope]

To play devil's advocate here, isn't it just the reverse of pre-emptively deciding that you're going to like a movie? Yet, we do that all the time. The more movies we watch the more we're likely to know what kind of movies we will like and what kind of movies we won't. However, that doesn't change the fact that we can be surprised--positive OR negatively--we may go into a Danny Boyle movie expecting to hate it, based on previous experiences with his films, but then love it...or we may go into a François Ozon movie expecting to love it, based on previous experiences with his films, but then hate it.

[flipp525]

I have to agree with criddic here. It rarely happens but, well, there it is.

I've found it lame and sort of childish how folks have actively campaigned against films they haven't seen yet and have "pre-emptively" decided not to like. It sort of makes you look like a douchebag, frankly. Why does a person need a movie like Gran Torino to fail so miserably? And, really, what are you getting out of that? The fleeting joy of being able to say "I told you so"?

Those who lack a certain objectivity at this point in the race, rarely make accurate predictions or compelling arguments for even their most off-the-wall, yet admirably daring, choices.



Edited By flipp525 on 1228925199

[criddic3]

While I initially resisted it, I am starting to wonder if BOTH WALL-E and The Dark Knight stand a good chance at joining presumptive faves Milk, Button, and Slumdog in the Best Picture lineup, particularly as the holiday movies seem to be exciting little enthusiasm.

i could live with that line up. sure, it means movies i really want to like (REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and THE READER) would be left out, but it also means movies i have preemptively decided to dislike (FROST/NIXON and GRAN TORINO) would also be snubbed.

two great popcorn films would be recognized by the academy, will three more art house films would benefit from the higher attention paid to the oscars this year.

almost every year at least on art house film is nominated for best picture and there are screams of "the academy is out of touch with regular folks!" personally this does not bother me since most regular folks have terrible taste in movies, but after the all time ratings low of last year, i would be very happy to see people actually tune in to watch the ceremony. this could only serve to help the three smaller films. i hope the academy goes for it.

"pre-emptively"? How can you decide not to like film before seeing it? I can see avoiding certain movies (like Saw or Hostel), but to dismiss films by successful directors like Eastwood and Howard without seeing them seems kind of arbitrary. On the flip side, I also don't think you can know for sure you'll like a movie beforehand either. For instance, I'm not terribly optimistic about the new Star Trek movie, but I am hopeful about the new Wolf Man movie. It may turn out that I'll like the former and not the latter, in the end.

[rolotomasi99]

While I initially resisted it, I am starting to wonder if BOTH WALL-E and The Dark Knight stand a good chance at joining presumptive faves Milk, Button, and Slumdog in the Best Picture lineup, particularly as the holiday movies seem to be exciting little enthusiasm.

i could live with that line up. sure, it means movies i really want to like (REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and THE READER) would be left out, but it also means movies i have preemptively decided to dislike (FROST/NIXON and GRAN TORINO) would also be snubbed.

two great popcorn films would be recognized by the academy, will three more art house films would benefit from the higher attention paid to the oscars this year.

almost every year at least on art house film is nominated for best picture and there are screams of "the academy is out of touch with regular folks!" personally this does not bother me since most regular folks have terrible taste in movies, but after the all time ratings low of last year, i would be very happy to see people actually tune in to watch the ceremony. this could only serve to help the three smaller films. i hope the academy goes for it.

[Damien]

Artist's interpretation of Damien's perception of what happens in Pixar movies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7KsXwO6Ymw

Well, both this and Sabin's clip have more wit, deeper charactrerizations and greater insight into this ol' thing we call Life than anything I've seen from Pixar. :;):

[Mister Tee]

I think my guess of a few weeks ago -- that no critical favorite would emerge from the late releases -- is being borne out. There is a hipster/rebellious aspect to the 1-2 finish of Wall E and Dark Knight here, but it would never have happened had there been any kind of consensus choice among dramatic films.

I actually wonder if Wall E emerging as the critics' choice could actually damage Dark Knight's chance at best picture nomination. Had Wall E been 100% exiled to Animated Feature, that would have left Dark Knight as the sole commercial contender fighting for a slot, against a field of dramas with split support. Now at least some will presumably push for Wall E to follow in Beauty and the Beast's path, dividing the "let's get a pop favorite in there" caucus.

By the way, I haven't seen Milk or Slumdog yet, and certainly none of the December entries...but as of today, I'd probably pick Wall E as the year's best.

In the down-ballot categories, what I see is chaos: three groups now, six lead acting winners. Let's hope New York keeps up the variety. No Helen Mirrens!

Leo did finish second here for 21 Grams, so I'm not surprised she had support. But, as BJ says, she (like Kristen Scott Thomas) needs a win, not honorable mention.

In support: Ledger winning serious critics' prizes makes him, in the vein of Julia Roberts 2000, just about unbeatable. Cruz is now 2-for-2 in the Classic Four groups; if she were to follow up with NY and NSFC, she'd be...well, as unstoppable as Amy Ryan.

[Sabin]

I would've thought:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ske8AG5q74

[Eric]

Artist's interpretation of Damien's perception of what happens in Pixar movies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7KsXwO6Ymw



Edited By Eric on 1228867737

[Sabin]

You're right. The only way in which these people could not know what they're talking about any more is if they hadn't seen it to begin with.

[Damien]

I think Damien just went into a coma.

No, because stupid people make stupid decisions, which is why I predicted Wall-e would win. And they undoubtedly thought they were being real rebels in choosing it. Sad.

[Sabin]

Looks like my hunch about The Dark Knight having a shot at a Best Picture win isn't so far-fetched after all.

You weren't the only one.

I don't like using these groups to prognosticate the Oscars because I find it counterproductive. They're designed to sway people away from the dregs of Oscar-bait with good taste. When people say "How is that supposed to tell us who is nominated?" I want to say, "Because you've already decided that Luminita Gheorghiu doesn't have a chance, it can't." That being said and with 'WALL-E' significantly closer to a legitimate stab at the gold, let's ponder what this means:

Since their incarnation, the only Best Pictures to miss out on an Oscar nomination have been 'American Splendor', 'About Schmidt', 'Leaving Las Vegas', 'Do the Right Thing', 'Little Dorrit' (?!? - that happened?), and 'Brazil'. Making them 27/33. 'Little Dorrit' and (sadly) 'Brazil' had no shot at a nomination so ultimately when they're in the running, the L.A. Critics have a decent track record of accurately predicting a Best Picture nomination. If 'WALL-E' flukes a Comedic/Musical Globe nomination and in the absence of any viable contender wins, voters could be swayed into voting for it.



Edited By Sabin on 1228863559

[The Original BJ]

YAY for WALL-E! I am seriously hoping it gets nominated for Best Picture.

While I initially resisted it, I am starting to wonder if BOTH WALL-E and The Dark Knight stand a good chance at joining presumptive faves Milk, Button, and Slumdog in the Best Picture lineup, particularly as the holiday movies seem to be exciting little enthusiasm.

Yay for Sally Hawkins, too. She's a joy in her film, and needed a prize to stay alive, especially after the BFCA snub today.

I continue to be totally shocked that Melissa Leo has done as well as she has. I still think this is the kind of performance that needs a critic WIN, not a silver medal, to really make headway in the race, but she's hanging in there. (I haven't seen her film, but it did surprise me to learn that it, like fellow early-year indie hopeful The Visitor, also tackles the subject of illegal immigration.)

On name value alone, I'd typically cheer screenwriting prizes for Mike Leigh and Charlie Kaufman. This year, however, I found the former's effort underwhelming, and the latter's nearly-unbearable.

I had so wanted to see Still Life when I first heard about it (a year ago? more?), but I don't remember it ever being released. It's on Netflix for anyone who's interested.

I assume Animated Feature was voted on AFTER Best Picture -- after selecting WALL-E for the top prize, clearly voters wanted to spread the wealth by giving the lower-rung category to Waltz With Bashir.