Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump? Somewhat Colin Firth in The King's Speech.Sabin wrote:Farrell is running third at this point. To be honest, I never really saw Farrell in the race. His performance is so atypical of an Oscar winner. Actors rarely win for playing kind, sweet, and dumb, although they should.
BAFTAs
Re: BAFTAs
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Big Magilla
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Re: BAFTAs
35-50?Okri wrote:Also, how are we defining middle age?
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Mister Tee
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Re: BAFTAs
This is really a matter for the one-by-one actor thread, and we ought to wait for SAG before we undertake that. (We just went through a BAFTA where all sorts of acting winners came as surprises; maybe we shouldn't assume we know how SAG is going to go.)
But a sad fact stands out: ever since Jamie Foxx kicked off the celebrity-impersonation Oscar, 11 of 18 best actor winners have been Real People, many of them prominent/previously-known. (12 if you count DiCaprio in The Revenant, based on a true story.) For best actress, it's maybe 10, depending how you classify Winslet/The Reader and McDormand/Nomadland. They just love them their impersonations. Maybe in the end, we should count ourselves lucky de Armas isn't going to win, as well.
But a sad fact stands out: ever since Jamie Foxx kicked off the celebrity-impersonation Oscar, 11 of 18 best actor winners have been Real People, many of them prominent/previously-known. (12 if you count DiCaprio in The Revenant, based on a true story.) For best actress, it's maybe 10, depending how you classify Winslet/The Reader and McDormand/Nomadland. They just love them their impersonations. Maybe in the end, we should count ourselves lucky de Armas isn't going to win, as well.
Re: BAFTAs
Oh, Butler's position is better than Fraser's. Even if Brendan Fraser wins the SAG award, I'd bet on Butler winning. Farrell is running third at this point. To be honest, I never really saw Farrell in the race. His performance is so atypical of an Oscar winner. Actors rarely win for playing kind, sweet, and dumb, although they should. Beyond that, I get the sense that affection for The Banshees of Inisherin might not manifest around a vote for Farrell. It'll take the form of a writing win or maybe even Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.Okri wrote
For me once Farrell beat Fraser at Venice, I've always assumed that Farrell was ahead. Which was supported by a strong performance in the critics awards. I viewed Butler as a solid third and the final two slots as out of the race for the award. Butler's victory at the Globes could be explained away - Fraser's stance. But I fear that Butler's position - biopic, best picture nominee, adult hit - is better than Fraser.
I find the notion of Austin Butler winning a little depressing.
"How's the despair?"
Re: BAFTAs
For me once Farrell beat Fraser at Venice, I've always assumed that Farrell was ahead. Which was supported by a strong performance in the critics awards. I viewed Butler as a solid third and the final two slots as out of the race for the award. Butler's victory at the Globes could be explained away - Fraser's stance. But I fear that Butler's position - biopic, best picture nominee, adult hit - is better than Fraser.
Also, how are we defining middle age?
Also, how are we defining middle age?
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Big Magilla
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Re: BAFTAs
I hate to bring up the old split vote thing, but I see Austin Butler's win over Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser in the same light as Judy Holliday's victory over Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson at the 1950 Oscars. That is, the two front-runners were likely the 1-2 favorites of the voters with some preferring Farrell to Fraser and some preferring Fraser to Farrell but most preferring both over the other three nominees. With the vote fairly evenly split between the two, it left the race wide open for probable third place Butler to amass more votes than either of them. That makes more sense than "they liked Keoghan and Condon, but they didn't like Farrell".
No one had a warmer smile or heartier applause for Keoghan than Gleeson when he won. Gleeson was great as usual as the film's co-lead, but Keoghan was heartbreaking in his true supporting role as the town sad sack. He and Condon were the year's best supporting players bar none in my estimation, and it would seem that of a lot of others think the same.
SAG wins for Kwan and Bassett will not necessarily mean Oscar wins for them. AMPAS membership has more in common with BAFFTA membership than SAG membership so I would put Keoghan and Condon's chances as even or better at this point.
No one had a warmer smile or heartier applause for Keoghan than Gleeson when he won. Gleeson was great as usual as the film's co-lead, but Keoghan was heartbreaking in his true supporting role as the town sad sack. He and Condon were the year's best supporting players bar none in my estimation, and it would seem that of a lot of others think the same.
SAG wins for Kwan and Bassett will not necessarily mean Oscar wins for them. AMPAS membership has more in common with BAFFTA membership than SAG membership so I would put Keoghan and Condon's chances as even or better at this point.
Re: BAFTAs
So, what are we to make of the supporting victories for Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon? How much of their wins are due to hometown advantage (and clearly, McDonagh is their boy) and how much of it is attributable to potential weaknesses in Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett's candidacies?
In terms of Ke Huy Quan, I only see one hurdle for the guy and that is the number voters who are turned off by Everything Everywhere All At Once. I can't see this as being a case of "I didn't like the movie but he was great." His performance largely serves as a guide through the world, so if you don't like the world I can't imagine many people liking his performance. But there are plenty of signs of strength in his candidacy such as his near-sweep of the critics awards, his likely SAG victory, his personal story, and the campaign that he is mounting. All of that is potent enough. But if you don't like Everything Everywhere All At Once and if you're not so inclined to check off his name, where does your vote go? I think it might overwhelmingly go to Barry Keoghan. Neither Brian Tyree Henry or Judd Hirsch got SAG or BAFTA nominations; Henry is from a sole nominee and Hirsch is from a film that seems to be fading, although I do think that if Banshees of EEAAO are both too much for a voter that vote might go to Hirsch. Brendan Gleeson is fantastic in the film (really, an irreplaceable performance) but we're kept outside of Gleeson throughout the film. But with Keoghan we're brought inside in probably the single loveliest scene of the year. He has a part that is funny, sympathetic, and ultimately tragic. He starts as an un-relatable idiot who proves surprisingly relatable by the end with the same human desires that we all have.
But how much of Barry Keoghan's win at the BAFTA's is due to hometown advantage? Well, it has to be some amount but it was enough to overcome the fact that he was nominated against his own co-star. That's what I find most impressive. You'd think of the two of them, they might be so inclined to give it to Brendan Gleeson who has never won a BAFTA but instead they went with Keoghan who is a relative newcomer. All of which to say it is interesting that this group chose to honor the Keoghan/Condon relationship and not the Farrell/Gleeson one. Working in Keoghan's favor is the fact that he has the Oscar scene of the year and the fact that The Banshees of Inisherin is just as much an over-performer as Everything Everywhere All At Once is.
Ke Huy Quan is going to win the SAG almost certainly but this race does not feel settled to me.
I'm a bit busy at work. I've written about the strengths and weaknesses in Angela Bassett's candidacies elsewhere. And yet I can't help but feel as though Kerry Condon's win here feels even more like the product of hometown advantage than Barry Keoghan's. While Kerry Condon has a very respectable body of work, she has a very low profile stateside. Really Condon's and Bassett's candidacies are almost complete inverses of each other. And yet, the last two years this category went to virtual unknowns in Ariana DeBose and Yuh-Jung Youn but in both instances I'd argue that these were candidacies that sprung from races that were shapeless for quite some time.
In terms of Ke Huy Quan, I only see one hurdle for the guy and that is the number voters who are turned off by Everything Everywhere All At Once. I can't see this as being a case of "I didn't like the movie but he was great." His performance largely serves as a guide through the world, so if you don't like the world I can't imagine many people liking his performance. But there are plenty of signs of strength in his candidacy such as his near-sweep of the critics awards, his likely SAG victory, his personal story, and the campaign that he is mounting. All of that is potent enough. But if you don't like Everything Everywhere All At Once and if you're not so inclined to check off his name, where does your vote go? I think it might overwhelmingly go to Barry Keoghan. Neither Brian Tyree Henry or Judd Hirsch got SAG or BAFTA nominations; Henry is from a sole nominee and Hirsch is from a film that seems to be fading, although I do think that if Banshees of EEAAO are both too much for a voter that vote might go to Hirsch. Brendan Gleeson is fantastic in the film (really, an irreplaceable performance) but we're kept outside of Gleeson throughout the film. But with Keoghan we're brought inside in probably the single loveliest scene of the year. He has a part that is funny, sympathetic, and ultimately tragic. He starts as an un-relatable idiot who proves surprisingly relatable by the end with the same human desires that we all have.
But how much of Barry Keoghan's win at the BAFTA's is due to hometown advantage? Well, it has to be some amount but it was enough to overcome the fact that he was nominated against his own co-star. That's what I find most impressive. You'd think of the two of them, they might be so inclined to give it to Brendan Gleeson who has never won a BAFTA but instead they went with Keoghan who is a relative newcomer. All of which to say it is interesting that this group chose to honor the Keoghan/Condon relationship and not the Farrell/Gleeson one. Working in Keoghan's favor is the fact that he has the Oscar scene of the year and the fact that The Banshees of Inisherin is just as much an over-performer as Everything Everywhere All At Once is.
Ke Huy Quan is going to win the SAG almost certainly but this race does not feel settled to me.
I'm a bit busy at work. I've written about the strengths and weaknesses in Angela Bassett's candidacies elsewhere. And yet I can't help but feel as though Kerry Condon's win here feels even more like the product of hometown advantage than Barry Keoghan's. While Kerry Condon has a very respectable body of work, she has a very low profile stateside. Really Condon's and Bassett's candidacies are almost complete inverses of each other. And yet, the last two years this category went to virtual unknowns in Ariana DeBose and Yuh-Jung Youn but in both instances I'd argue that these were candidacies that sprung from races that were shapeless for quite some time.
"How's the despair?"
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Big Magilla
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Re: BAFTAs
Fraser was taken very seriously in Gods and Monsters before he did all those action movies and then disappeared in a long line of movies nobody saw or even heard of. The Whale gives him re-entry into high profile roles.
Re: BAFTAs
Actually Fraser was never away. He's been steadily around in films and on tv. It's just that he has never been thought of as a "serious" actor until The Whale.Big Magilla wrote:Kwan's backstory, while nice, is not really a comeback. He was never a star in the way that Brendan Fraser was. Fraser's is the real comeback of the year, but he faces an uphill battle to win over Colin Farrell, but not, I would have thought, Austin Butler. Sheesh! Those middle-aged fangirls can never get enough of Elvis!
On the other hand Quan, while never a star, does make a comeback. A fairytale comeback to movies after almost 40 years where in between he was desperately struggling to get a job although coming off two huge back-to-back hits - Indy Jones and The Goonies. Actors understand that "struggle" and will vote for him. I think Quan is the only actor who is a frontrunner. There could be upsets in the the three other acting categories.
Re: BAFTAs
I cut your quote short but that's what I'm thinking. I'll take it one step farther: as of now, I think All Quiet... is going to win. I think so for the reason why Magilla thinks so. I just think it's so silly and divisive it's not going to win on a ranked ballot. All Quiet... could. It's broadly liked across multiple categories. It may not have a DGA, PGA, or SAG nomination (I suspect it might have made it into DGA with more of a Netflix push early on) but I also think there's just a good chance not enough people saw it in time or knew it existed. Like CODA, it could be the second film in a row that might not have made a Best Picture roster that goes onto win. Late starters are doing very well these days. To be honest, I don't hate that.Mister Tee wrote
Maybe we need to give a bit of thought to All Quiet winning best picture...or at least taking more categories than the International Film/cinematography tandem widely predicted?
But there's something else I found myself thinking about today that really solidified it in my mind. How many people in Hollywood are very concerned about Ukraine? Quite a few. I would say disproportionately more so than the rest of the country. I could see it being a film that liberals can rally around.
"How's the despair?"
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Mister Tee
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Re: BAFTAs
As one with a long history of wanting one thing only from these prelim awards -- confusion! -- today was 90% delightful. Especially after last night, when people were promoting a glide-path for Everything Everywhere.
But that other 10%... I'm barely fine with Butler being a nominee; I thought he did well enough filling in the well-known mannerisms -- but that's as far as it goes. His taking the Oscar for this would be truly disheartening: after Rami Malek, proof that the biopic is just unstoppable with these awards bodies, even in a year when most of the nominees are, for a change, fictional. Farrell's performance was just leagues ahead of Butler's...but I have to say, for the first time, I'm pessimistic about his chances at AMPAS -- for him to fall short while two co-stars and the script won suggests he's not seen as the heart of the film. A SAG win would do something to offset this, but I'm afraid Butler is more likely to win there, as well, and turn this promising race into a fait accompli. Needless to say, I'd love to be wrong.
I don't think Blanchett was any kind of surprise here. Yeoh needs to win SAG to keep the race alive...which she may do, but I'm not sure it's the way to bet. Blanchett being simply undeniable this year (and Everything Everywhere not being seen as that serious a film) have always seemed bigger handicaps to me than Yeoh fans have wished to acknowledge,
Meantime, BAFTA kicked a modicum of suspense into the two supporting races. I've been on record for quite a while saying Bassett isn't the juggernaut the Internet thinks -- basically, she won the Globe, and the copycat Broadcasters chimed in; that's the sum total of her "inevitability". Condon was always the strongest alternative, and her win here makes this a real race.
I'm less inclined to think Ke Huy Quan has slipped any. I LOVE Keoghan's performance, and am happy for him that he got some on-air recognition, but his win may have had more to do with disaffection for Everything Everywhere in the BAFTA voting pool. It's always more interesting when the four televised prizes don't go to the same person, but I"d still say Quan -- with his genuine success among legit critics as well as pundits -- should win 3 weeks hence.
The real seismic results clearly came in the film/director categories. After last night's DGA win -- and even with the little boost from ADG -- Everything Everywhere seemed like it might turn into a "they all love it/it's sweeping" candidate. That still might happen. Recall: Birdman won a solitary cinematography award at BAFTA, but went on to sweep the three top Guild prizes, and became one of only two films to win film/director/screenplay at the Oscars post-The King's Speech. (The only one to also win DGA, as Parasite was the other.) But Birdman was at least topped at BAFTA by a very strongly-credentialed film; Everything lost to a Netflix film that doesn't even have a directing nomination at AMPAS. (And also lost screenplay to a prominent contender.) Couple this with losing at the Globes, and the word juggernaut doesn't pop to mind.
I don't think Everything's situation is quite as simple as Magilla portrays it, but I do have to note, I keep hearing of more people my age who turn it off before finishing it. (The latest I've heard of is a friend's sister-in-law who's an Academy voter.) Even when I look at our preferential ballots here, I see the number of people who've posted it near the bottom -- not to say we represent Academy conventional wisdom, but it's indicative of some significant resistance to the film, which doesn't bode gloriously for victory on a preferential ballot at AMPAS.
Maybe we need to give a bit of thought to All Quiet winning best picture...or at least taking more categories than the International Film/cinematography tandem widely predicted? Women Talking wasn't on the screenplay ballot today, so nothing definitive there, but this at least provided evidence some voters are willing to consider All Quiet for its writing (the more obviously "written" Living was a solid alternative). I've been told Top Gun is a lock for sound at AMPAS, but not here, and maybe not there, either. And the Babylon score juggernaut fell short as I'd suggested, but this wasn't the film I'd expected to triumph. BAFTA best picture winners actually haven't carried over to AMPAS very well lately -- 7 of their last 8 have fallen short -- but a victory this strong should give us pause, anyway.
Below the line, Babylon won the category I'd have least expected; along with last night's ADG prize (the only Oscar nominee to win there), it seems it should be the front-runner...but the flop stink makes it a shaky favorite. Elvis may end up resolving the race in the two craft categories it won today, costumes and make-up -- but The Whale still seems ostentatious enough to get AMPAS votes for the latter. Everything Everywhere, as I noted earlier, had the consolation prize of Editing, but that may have been more a "no Top Gun no way" decision than any big endorsement for the film. And Navalny followed up its DGA win with the documentary prize here. I have to admit, that category befuddles me (partly because I've seen only two nominees, my worst showing). Fire of Love seems to have enormous affection behind it, and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is clearly the critics' pick. But perhaps the world's revulsion over Russia will propel the quite-decent Navalny to a win.
On to SAG/PGA, and hoping they throw more wrenches into things.
But that other 10%... I'm barely fine with Butler being a nominee; I thought he did well enough filling in the well-known mannerisms -- but that's as far as it goes. His taking the Oscar for this would be truly disheartening: after Rami Malek, proof that the biopic is just unstoppable with these awards bodies, even in a year when most of the nominees are, for a change, fictional. Farrell's performance was just leagues ahead of Butler's...but I have to say, for the first time, I'm pessimistic about his chances at AMPAS -- for him to fall short while two co-stars and the script won suggests he's not seen as the heart of the film. A SAG win would do something to offset this, but I'm afraid Butler is more likely to win there, as well, and turn this promising race into a fait accompli. Needless to say, I'd love to be wrong.
I don't think Blanchett was any kind of surprise here. Yeoh needs to win SAG to keep the race alive...which she may do, but I'm not sure it's the way to bet. Blanchett being simply undeniable this year (and Everything Everywhere not being seen as that serious a film) have always seemed bigger handicaps to me than Yeoh fans have wished to acknowledge,
Meantime, BAFTA kicked a modicum of suspense into the two supporting races. I've been on record for quite a while saying Bassett isn't the juggernaut the Internet thinks -- basically, she won the Globe, and the copycat Broadcasters chimed in; that's the sum total of her "inevitability". Condon was always the strongest alternative, and her win here makes this a real race.
I'm less inclined to think Ke Huy Quan has slipped any. I LOVE Keoghan's performance, and am happy for him that he got some on-air recognition, but his win may have had more to do with disaffection for Everything Everywhere in the BAFTA voting pool. It's always more interesting when the four televised prizes don't go to the same person, but I"d still say Quan -- with his genuine success among legit critics as well as pundits -- should win 3 weeks hence.
The real seismic results clearly came in the film/director categories. After last night's DGA win -- and even with the little boost from ADG -- Everything Everywhere seemed like it might turn into a "they all love it/it's sweeping" candidate. That still might happen. Recall: Birdman won a solitary cinematography award at BAFTA, but went on to sweep the three top Guild prizes, and became one of only two films to win film/director/screenplay at the Oscars post-The King's Speech. (The only one to also win DGA, as Parasite was the other.) But Birdman was at least topped at BAFTA by a very strongly-credentialed film; Everything lost to a Netflix film that doesn't even have a directing nomination at AMPAS. (And also lost screenplay to a prominent contender.) Couple this with losing at the Globes, and the word juggernaut doesn't pop to mind.
I don't think Everything's situation is quite as simple as Magilla portrays it, but I do have to note, I keep hearing of more people my age who turn it off before finishing it. (The latest I've heard of is a friend's sister-in-law who's an Academy voter.) Even when I look at our preferential ballots here, I see the number of people who've posted it near the bottom -- not to say we represent Academy conventional wisdom, but it's indicative of some significant resistance to the film, which doesn't bode gloriously for victory on a preferential ballot at AMPAS.
Maybe we need to give a bit of thought to All Quiet winning best picture...or at least taking more categories than the International Film/cinematography tandem widely predicted? Women Talking wasn't on the screenplay ballot today, so nothing definitive there, but this at least provided evidence some voters are willing to consider All Quiet for its writing (the more obviously "written" Living was a solid alternative). I've been told Top Gun is a lock for sound at AMPAS, but not here, and maybe not there, either. And the Babylon score juggernaut fell short as I'd suggested, but this wasn't the film I'd expected to triumph. BAFTA best picture winners actually haven't carried over to AMPAS very well lately -- 7 of their last 8 have fallen short -- but a victory this strong should give us pause, anyway.
Below the line, Babylon won the category I'd have least expected; along with last night's ADG prize (the only Oscar nominee to win there), it seems it should be the front-runner...but the flop stink makes it a shaky favorite. Elvis may end up resolving the race in the two craft categories it won today, costumes and make-up -- but The Whale still seems ostentatious enough to get AMPAS votes for the latter. Everything Everywhere, as I noted earlier, had the consolation prize of Editing, but that may have been more a "no Top Gun no way" decision than any big endorsement for the film. And Navalny followed up its DGA win with the documentary prize here. I have to admit, that category befuddles me (partly because I've seen only two nominees, my worst showing). Fire of Love seems to have enormous affection behind it, and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is clearly the critics' pick. But perhaps the world's revulsion over Russia will propel the quite-decent Navalny to a win.
On to SAG/PGA, and hoping they throw more wrenches into things.
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Big Magilla
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Re: BAFTAs
These awards reflect what older Academy members have been saying all along - EEAAO is not something that they would vote for. It was heavily supported by the young hopefuls in the DGA who would like to have the same overnight sensation that the Daniels did. They are not a slam dunk for the Oscars, though they could well win.Reza wrote:The fact that Everything Everywhere won the DGA must mean something. Don't think its going to be quite the Bafta repeat performance at the Oscars.
I see Butler and Condon prevailing. Ke Huy Quan is the comeback story of the year and the Academy will honour a person of colour. Best Actress will be neck to neck between Blanchett and Yeoh with my money on the latter as I see her film winning Best Picture as well for its direction.
Kwan's backstory, while nice, is not really a comeback. He was never a star in the way that Brendan Fraser was. Fraser's is the real comeback of the year, but he faces an uphill battle to win over Colin Farrell, but not, I would have thought, Austin Butler. Sheesh! Those middle-aged fangirls can never get enough of Elvis!
There may still be a few surprises yet to come.
Re: BAFTAs
If Blanchett and Condon carry over to the oscars the internet will literally melt down… and I’m all in for it.
Blanchett looked really nervous during her speech.
Blanchett looked really nervous during her speech.
Re: BAFTAs
The fact that Everything Everywhere won the DGA must mean something. Don't think its going to be quite the Bafta repeat performance at the Oscars.
I see Butler and Condon prevailing. Ke Huy Quan is the comeback story of the year and the Academy will honour a person of colour. Best Actress will be neck to neck between Blanchett and Yeoh with my money on the latter as I see her film winning Best Picture as well for its direction.
I see Butler and Condon prevailing. Ke Huy Quan is the comeback story of the year and the Academy will honour a person of colour. Best Actress will be neck to neck between Blanchett and Yeoh with my money on the latter as I see her film winning Best Picture as well for its direction.
Re: BAFTAs
Last night's big winner at the DGAs (Everything Everywhere All At Once) was basically persona non-grata overseas as this crowd went for All Quiet on the Western Front with seven awards. Over the last twelve years, only three of their big winners have split with the DGAs. Two of them lost (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Boyhood), one of them won (12 Years a Slave).
The BAFTAs certainly have a hometown preference but in recent years they've proven to be a very reliable forecaster of the Academy Awards. There's significant crossover with the Oscars in terms of membership. All four acting awards have lined up perfectly with the Oscar wins three times in the last five years (2020, 2019, 2017). The only times that this group has "missed" the eventual Oscar nominee, they didn't nominate the eventual winners (Chastain, King). In 2020, they were the only "precursor" group to honor Anthony Hopkins for The Father and Frances McDormand for Nomadland. This is very good news for Butler, Blanchett, Keoghan, and Condon.
The BAFTAs certainly have a hometown preference but in recent years they've proven to be a very reliable forecaster of the Academy Awards. There's significant crossover with the Oscars in terms of membership. All four acting awards have lined up perfectly with the Oscar wins three times in the last five years (2020, 2019, 2017). The only times that this group has "missed" the eventual Oscar nominee, they didn't nominate the eventual winners (Chastain, King). In 2020, they were the only "precursor" group to honor Anthony Hopkins for The Father and Frances McDormand for Nomadland. This is very good news for Butler, Blanchett, Keoghan, and Condon.
"How's the despair?"