The score of Banshees would be my easy favorite. It perfectly captures both a sense of place and the tone of the movie. Plus, it’s nice to listen to all on its own.
As far as what will win, I think it’s between Banshees and Babylon. The score of the latter is very impressive. Whether members vote for it will depend on whether they like that type of period music, and to some degree whether they like the film.
The Fabelmans is the next likeliest, if folks want to give one last prize to Williams. The score is nice enough, though a lot of it sounds faintly familiar, not all that original or memorable.
The scores for both EEAAO and AQOTWF are effective but a bit jarring, and not the kinds of scores that tend to win this category.
Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
This might be a five-way race. I'd like to say that All Quiet on The Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin are out, but both films have nine nominations so it'd be silly to count them out.
Anyway, what are our bellwethers.
Seven of the last ten Golden Globe winners for Best Original Score went onto win the Oscar. Two of the three that didn't (All is Lost, First Man) weren't nominated. The other winner was The Theory of Everything, which might have been a good bet that year. Over the last ten years, only one movie won Best Original Score without a Golden Globe nomination which is surprisingly The Grand Budapest Hotel. So, safe money is co-sign the Golden Globe winner (Babylon) although one of the few times the two awards didn't line up was the last Chazelle/Hurwitz collaboration. The only time they honored an Oscar nominee that didn't go on to win was The Theory of Everything -- not a bad choice. Either way, this would point to Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans being the contenders.
The BAFTAs got eight out of the last ten winners, missing only Skyfall and A Star is Born. A Star is Born was a wacky choice but they didn't nominate Black Panther, which tbh is a similarly wacky choice honoring an MCU film for its music. Either way, they're a slightly better forecaster and this year they nominated all but The Fabelmans.
By that reasoning, Babylon and The Banshees of Inisherin would be the likeliest contenders. Currently, I'm not confident in predicting either one. I'm not confident in predicting Babylon because it's the only film not up for Best Picture which should really work against it. The Banshees of Inisherin has a gorgeous score but I'm less confident in predicting it because -- I don't know how else to pick this -- it just doesn't seem like the kind of thing they go for. Carter Burwell should have more than one Oscar by now but a career achievement award but I don't sense enough cult of personality or signature to get him there. Thomas Newman hasn't been able to make that work for him yet.
I do think Babylon's music has a high-ish profile to it. It has the most memorable signature to it IMO and I think that has to matter some. Ultimately, when people are marking down their ballots, how do they remember the music? And Justin Hurwitz has a fair degree of cult of personality to it. Its best (only) chance is that those who see it and don't like it remember the score. It's also one of two films in this lineup that feature wall-to-wall music, the other being Everything Everywhere All At Once. I just wonder how many times people are going to be checking that film off on the ballot.
Lastly, I do think John Williams' last collaboration with Steven Spielberg means something but I think it would carry more weight if more people liked The Fabelmans or if the score was a little more memorable. I quite like it but it's a soft tune.
Currently, I predict Babylon only because I am less confident in the other contenders.
Anyway, what are our bellwethers.
Seven of the last ten Golden Globe winners for Best Original Score went onto win the Oscar. Two of the three that didn't (All is Lost, First Man) weren't nominated. The other winner was The Theory of Everything, which might have been a good bet that year. Over the last ten years, only one movie won Best Original Score without a Golden Globe nomination which is surprisingly The Grand Budapest Hotel. So, safe money is co-sign the Golden Globe winner (Babylon) although one of the few times the two awards didn't line up was the last Chazelle/Hurwitz collaboration. The only time they honored an Oscar nominee that didn't go on to win was The Theory of Everything -- not a bad choice. Either way, this would point to Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans being the contenders.
The BAFTAs got eight out of the last ten winners, missing only Skyfall and A Star is Born. A Star is Born was a wacky choice but they didn't nominate Black Panther, which tbh is a similarly wacky choice honoring an MCU film for its music. Either way, they're a slightly better forecaster and this year they nominated all but The Fabelmans.
By that reasoning, Babylon and The Banshees of Inisherin would be the likeliest contenders. Currently, I'm not confident in predicting either one. I'm not confident in predicting Babylon because it's the only film not up for Best Picture which should really work against it. The Banshees of Inisherin has a gorgeous score but I'm less confident in predicting it because -- I don't know how else to pick this -- it just doesn't seem like the kind of thing they go for. Carter Burwell should have more than one Oscar by now but a career achievement award but I don't sense enough cult of personality or signature to get him there. Thomas Newman hasn't been able to make that work for him yet.
I do think Babylon's music has a high-ish profile to it. It has the most memorable signature to it IMO and I think that has to matter some. Ultimately, when people are marking down their ballots, how do they remember the music? And Justin Hurwitz has a fair degree of cult of personality to it. Its best (only) chance is that those who see it and don't like it remember the score. It's also one of two films in this lineup that feature wall-to-wall music, the other being Everything Everywhere All At Once. I just wonder how many times people are going to be checking that film off on the ballot.
Lastly, I do think John Williams' last collaboration with Steven Spielberg means something but I think it would carry more weight if more people liked The Fabelmans or if the score was a little more memorable. I quite like it but it's a soft tune.
Currently, I predict Babylon only because I am less confident in the other contenders.
"How's the despair?"
Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Oh, interesting. As someone who whole-heartedly loves the Babylon score (like I liked the movie a lot, but if I love it as much as I loved the score, we'd be talking about all-timer) - I think it's the frontrunner. Tee, you were the one to teach us all about those random one-offs (Milagro Beanfield War, A Little Romance, The Red Violin) and I think there are several reasons for Babylon here.
a) Firstly, it's wall-to-wall music. Music is aggressively showcased in its party sequences, a central figure is a musician and the central themes are very memorable and super propulsive – you practically get a contact high from the energy. I don't think similarities to La La Land matter all that much [would Gustavo Santaoalla have a second Oscar if it did?]. I've got no idea how much Hollywood hates Babylon, but I can imagine everyone who thinks positively of it votes for it specifically in this category (whereas every other nominee has other places they are much stronger in).
b) I like Carter Burwell's score for Banshees a fair bit, but is he really thought of as overdue? He's only been nominated twice before and the music branch, while super cliquey, will throw nominations at composers they admire like a tired suburbanite gives out Halloween candy at the end of the evening. John Williams has more nominations than weeks of the year! Heck, Nicholas Brittel got his start 30 years after him and already has an equal number of Oscar nominations. But beyond that, I don't think AMPAS really responds to delicate in this category. Spare loses to bombastic/omnipresent more often than not.
----Side note – recently departed Arnold Schulman’s last script was And the Band Played On, which was the first Carter Burwell score I heard. I have the CD somewhere.
c) I’d be surprised if All Quiet on the Western Front won. It’s drone of a score isn’t quite as effective as I thought it would be, truth be told, and I don’t dislike droning scores [there’s an article to be written about Netflix’ homogeneity when it comes to their films’ craft achievements]. One thing I find interesting is that scores for war/war adjacent movies don’t do as well as you’d think (as they’re basically action scores but with serious undertones). I think it’s position as a solid best picture candidate stands it in a good position and if voters listen to it on its own, the anachronistic nature won’t bother them as much (plus the music near the end is quite good). I just don’t know how many voters do that. I’m also curious why war (or war adjacent) films don’t seem to do quite as well in this category as I think they should.
d) Nathaniel @ The Film Experience was a little disappointed that John Williams lost the Golden Globe for The Fablemans. That was the first hint that to me that he might have some momentum (Nathaniel is not someone who likes Williams all that much). I too don't remember much from the score while watching, but it's a pleasant listen on its own. I think people would have to really want Williams to specifically win to vote for it, to be honest. As someone who thinks Oscar history would be richer if we were to reduce Williams nomination tally by about 25%, I'm not one of them.
e) I just have no idea how to read Everything, Everywhere All At Once. It could end the night with one oscar or it could win a half dozen. I could see it winning, actually. It's omnipresent. There isn’t anything particularly memorable about the musical cues [I’m listening to it now and I can’t quite connect the music to the specific scenes – except the opera interlude, I guess - which always strikes me as a negative] and the music itself inhabits the edge of what AMPAS will vote for. But there is a lot of it.
Side note: I wouldn’t go so far and say soundtrack lengths are predictive (as soundtracks might contain double/triple tracks, etc), both Babylon and Everything Everywhere All At Once are over 90 minutes long, whereas Fablemans and Banshees are under 40 minutes (All Quiet is 55)
So yeah, I actually am predicting the exact reverse of what Big Magilla is predicting, which is amusing.
a) Firstly, it's wall-to-wall music. Music is aggressively showcased in its party sequences, a central figure is a musician and the central themes are very memorable and super propulsive – you practically get a contact high from the energy. I don't think similarities to La La Land matter all that much [would Gustavo Santaoalla have a second Oscar if it did?]. I've got no idea how much Hollywood hates Babylon, but I can imagine everyone who thinks positively of it votes for it specifically in this category (whereas every other nominee has other places they are much stronger in).
b) I like Carter Burwell's score for Banshees a fair bit, but is he really thought of as overdue? He's only been nominated twice before and the music branch, while super cliquey, will throw nominations at composers they admire like a tired suburbanite gives out Halloween candy at the end of the evening. John Williams has more nominations than weeks of the year! Heck, Nicholas Brittel got his start 30 years after him and already has an equal number of Oscar nominations. But beyond that, I don't think AMPAS really responds to delicate in this category. Spare loses to bombastic/omnipresent more often than not.
----Side note – recently departed Arnold Schulman’s last script was And the Band Played On, which was the first Carter Burwell score I heard. I have the CD somewhere.
c) I’d be surprised if All Quiet on the Western Front won. It’s drone of a score isn’t quite as effective as I thought it would be, truth be told, and I don’t dislike droning scores [there’s an article to be written about Netflix’ homogeneity when it comes to their films’ craft achievements]. One thing I find interesting is that scores for war/war adjacent movies don’t do as well as you’d think (as they’re basically action scores but with serious undertones). I think it’s position as a solid best picture candidate stands it in a good position and if voters listen to it on its own, the anachronistic nature won’t bother them as much (plus the music near the end is quite good). I just don’t know how many voters do that. I’m also curious why war (or war adjacent) films don’t seem to do quite as well in this category as I think they should.
d) Nathaniel @ The Film Experience was a little disappointed that John Williams lost the Golden Globe for The Fablemans. That was the first hint that to me that he might have some momentum (Nathaniel is not someone who likes Williams all that much). I too don't remember much from the score while watching, but it's a pleasant listen on its own. I think people would have to really want Williams to specifically win to vote for it, to be honest. As someone who thinks Oscar history would be richer if we were to reduce Williams nomination tally by about 25%, I'm not one of them.
e) I just have no idea how to read Everything, Everywhere All At Once. It could end the night with one oscar or it could win a half dozen. I could see it winning, actually. It's omnipresent. There isn’t anything particularly memorable about the musical cues [I’m listening to it now and I can’t quite connect the music to the specific scenes – except the opera interlude, I guess - which always strikes me as a negative] and the music itself inhabits the edge of what AMPAS will vote for. But there is a lot of it.
Side note: I wouldn’t go so far and say soundtrack lengths are predictive (as soundtracks might contain double/triple tracks, etc), both Babylon and Everything Everywhere All At Once are over 90 minutes long, whereas Fablemans and Banshees are under 40 minutes (All Quiet is 55)
So yeah, I actually am predicting the exact reverse of what Big Magilla is predicting, which is amusing.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Now that I've seen Babylon, I can say that the score is decent enough, but the film's best music is its use of classic songs, some of which are orchestral and some of which are sung.
The film is excessive and overlong but highly watchable. The Oscar nominated production design and costume design are both excellent and the performances of Diego Calva, Margot Robbie, and Brad Pitt are strong.
The film is excessive and overlong but highly watchable. The Oscar nominated production design and costume design are both excellent and the performances of Diego Calva, Margot Robbie, and Brad Pitt are strong.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Haven't seen Babylon so can't comment on its worthiness but Oscar voters in general are so turned off by the film that I can't see them voting it in any category despite what the muic brnch might think.
In order of likelihood:
Banshees (yes, Burwell is overdue, but it's a lovely score that standd on its own)
Fabelmans (I don't see a sentimental win for the already overcompensated 91-year-old Williams, but the score is good)
All Quiet (a strong nomination but a win only if there's an unexpected sweep for the film)
EEAAO (not its strongest shot at winning something)
Babylon (the film is pretty much hated by the Academy)
In order of likelihood:
Banshees (yes, Burwell is overdue, but it's a lovely score that standd on its own)
Fabelmans (I don't see a sentimental win for the already overcompensated 91-year-old Williams, but the score is good)
All Quiet (a strong nomination but a win only if there's an unexpected sweep for the film)
EEAAO (not its strongest shot at winning something)
Babylon (the film is pretty much hated by the Academy)
Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Carter Burwell for the win!!
I think Banshees is going to surprise on Oscar night. And not just with a Burwell win.
I think Banshees is going to surprise on Oscar night. And not just with a Burwell win.
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Mister Tee
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Categories One-by-One: Original Score
The nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertlemann)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
If you only listen to Oscar bloggers and YouTube commenters, you're under the impression Babylon is going to run away with this category. I have to challenge that notion, on two grounds.
First, I don't think -- as many of them seem to -- the score is so extraordinarily superior to all others that its not winning would be unthinkable. I thought it was a respectable enough effort, but nothing that blew me away (in addition to which, I caught hints of the La La Land theme recycled, which doesn't impress me).
Second: how easy do these folk think it is for a non-contending film to win this category? Since the expansion to 10 nominees, only two films have won this prize without being on the best picture slate: The Hateful Eight -- which had as intense a personal, give-it-to-Morricone campaign as I've ever seen -- and Soul, a movie that had music as its essential subject. Even in the decade prior, with only 5 best picture nominees, Frida was the only film to win without a best picture slot. A lot of us thought If Beale Street Could Talk might take the prize, for its moody jazz score, but it lost, unexpectedly, to Black Panther -- this despite being a film contending for screenplay and winning an acting prize, things Babylon can only dream about. These precedents now go out the window for a movie viewed as financial belly-flop -- all to reward a guy who's already got 2 Oscars? I truly don't get the certainty.
Of course, if it's not Babylon, what is it?
I can't say I loved the score for All Quiet on the Western Front. The main thing I remember is some bordering-on-heavy-metal riffs, which is not a favorite style. I'll admit: I thought much the same about Dune last year, and that went on to win. But Volker Bertlemann isn't Hans Zimmer.
One of many over-hyped elements of The Fabelmans has been John Williams' score, or, put better, the fact that This is John Williams' Last Score for Steven Spielberg. I've enjoyed many of Williams' scores over the years -- he's provided those instantly recognizable, heroic themes -- but I have to say I can barely remember a note from The Fabelmans. He has a chance to win, on reputation, but I don't see anyone rushing to reward this particular effort.
The Everything Everywhere nomination was one of the surprising/"they love everything about it" citations the film got on the morning of the announcements. Honestly, I don't recall much about the music. But, then, I don't recall that much about Ke Huy Quan, either, so I'm obviously out of the loop on this one. Maybe it has a chance.
I'm wondering why nobody's much mentioning The Banshees of Inisherin here. (In fact, I'd say people are downplaying the film across the board, but that's another subject.) I DID come out of this film remembering the score (along with the performances); it's a lovely piece of work that I'd have no problem seeing as a winner. And talking about someone overdue, what about Carter Burwell? I'd personally have already given him prizes for two scores -- Gods and Monsters and Carol -- but his career has been so long, and so distinguished, that you may well have 2-3 other efforts you'd prefer to cite. This is a man with a sterling, honorable career, and a wonderful piece of work in a year, his film is one of the top contenders. Why not give him the prize?
Or, I'm wrong, the hive mind is right, and Babylon can't be beaten. Take a side and debate me.
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertlemann)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
If you only listen to Oscar bloggers and YouTube commenters, you're under the impression Babylon is going to run away with this category. I have to challenge that notion, on two grounds.
First, I don't think -- as many of them seem to -- the score is so extraordinarily superior to all others that its not winning would be unthinkable. I thought it was a respectable enough effort, but nothing that blew me away (in addition to which, I caught hints of the La La Land theme recycled, which doesn't impress me).
Second: how easy do these folk think it is for a non-contending film to win this category? Since the expansion to 10 nominees, only two films have won this prize without being on the best picture slate: The Hateful Eight -- which had as intense a personal, give-it-to-Morricone campaign as I've ever seen -- and Soul, a movie that had music as its essential subject. Even in the decade prior, with only 5 best picture nominees, Frida was the only film to win without a best picture slot. A lot of us thought If Beale Street Could Talk might take the prize, for its moody jazz score, but it lost, unexpectedly, to Black Panther -- this despite being a film contending for screenplay and winning an acting prize, things Babylon can only dream about. These precedents now go out the window for a movie viewed as financial belly-flop -- all to reward a guy who's already got 2 Oscars? I truly don't get the certainty.
Of course, if it's not Babylon, what is it?
I can't say I loved the score for All Quiet on the Western Front. The main thing I remember is some bordering-on-heavy-metal riffs, which is not a favorite style. I'll admit: I thought much the same about Dune last year, and that went on to win. But Volker Bertlemann isn't Hans Zimmer.
One of many over-hyped elements of The Fabelmans has been John Williams' score, or, put better, the fact that This is John Williams' Last Score for Steven Spielberg. I've enjoyed many of Williams' scores over the years -- he's provided those instantly recognizable, heroic themes -- but I have to say I can barely remember a note from The Fabelmans. He has a chance to win, on reputation, but I don't see anyone rushing to reward this particular effort.
The Everything Everywhere nomination was one of the surprising/"they love everything about it" citations the film got on the morning of the announcements. Honestly, I don't recall much about the music. But, then, I don't recall that much about Ke Huy Quan, either, so I'm obviously out of the loop on this one. Maybe it has a chance.
I'm wondering why nobody's much mentioning The Banshees of Inisherin here. (In fact, I'd say people are downplaying the film across the board, but that's another subject.) I DID come out of this film remembering the score (along with the performances); it's a lovely piece of work that I'd have no problem seeing as a winner. And talking about someone overdue, what about Carter Burwell? I'd personally have already given him prizes for two scores -- Gods and Monsters and Carol -- but his career has been so long, and so distinguished, that you may well have 2-3 other efforts you'd prefer to cite. This is a man with a sterling, honorable career, and a wonderful piece of work in a year, his film is one of the top contenders. Why not give him the prize?
Or, I'm wrong, the hive mind is right, and Babylon can't be beaten. Take a side and debate me.