Predict! - Come on, it s not too early. :P

[Okri]

The Band's Visit is ineligible, having been given a one-week release last year. Not that eligibility affects its chances, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

[dreaMaker]

Best picture:
-The Reader
-Changeling
-Revolutionary Road
-Australia
-Frost/Nixon


Best director:
-Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road)
-Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
-Clint Eastwood (Changeling)
-Baz Luhrmann (Australia)
-Gus Van Sant (Milk)

[Sabin]

Fox Searchlight has just picked up Fox Searchlight's 'Slumdog Millionaire'. Read! Directed by Danny Boyle and written by Simon Beaufoy. Looks cute. 'Juno' cute.

A comedy centered around an illiterate kid who looks to become a contestant on the Hindi version of Who Wants to be A Millionaire in order to re-establish contact with the girl he loves, who is an ardent fan of the show.

[Sabin]

It's not impossible to conceive of 'Revolutionary Road' coming up short. It could very easily be a tortuous bitch fest.

Sadly, I've been thinking about this coming fracas myself. I'd love to think that Spike Lee's war movie will be something to remember but the trailer looks painfully vanilla. 'The Miracle of St. Anna' is possible. Two Holocaust-themed films seems a bit too much. I have a bit more faith that Stephen Daldry's film will be more lauded than 'Defiance'. I'm sure 'Gran Torino' will be better than it sounds but 'Changeling' is the more fascinating sounding film. By the same token, I know that 'The Road' has a strong capacity to disappoint but John Hillcoat's 'The Proposition' seems like perfect primer for Cormac McCarthy. 'Doubt' seems like it has a strong capacity to disappoint. And then there's 'Milk' which seems to be developing a groundswell of good will, and despite the fact that it's directed by Gus Van Sant I think it's possible that Focus can push it into the mainstream.

BEST PICTURE
'Changeling'
'The Dark Knight'
'Milk'
'The Reader'
'The Road'

...beyond that? I think Mike Leigh has a shot for Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and definitely Sally Hawkins' Best Actress lock. Anne Hathaway for 'Rachel Getting Married'. Maybe Rachel Weisz for 'The Brothers Bloom'. Either Jamie Bell or Liev Schreiber for 'Defiance'. Viggo Mortensen for 'The Road'. Maybe Penelope Cruz for 'Vicky Christina Barcelona'. Definitely Heath Ledger for 'The Dark Knight'.

I think the Oscar will go for 'The Dark Knight'. Not only that, I think Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Mixing, and Best Sound Effects will go for 'The Dark Knight'.

My hope is that the nominees include 'WALL*E' for Best Picture, Gabe Nevins, Gus Van Sant, and Christopher Doyle for 'Paranoid Park', Viktoria Winge for 'Reprise' (best single supporting performance of the year in the best movie I've seen this year that isn't 'WALL*E'), Sasson Gabai and Ronit Elkabetz for 'The Band's Visit', James Franco for 'Pineapple Express, Dominique Pinon for 'Roman de Gare', and perhaps Robert Downey Jr. for 'Iron Man' or Heath Ledger for Best LEAD Actor in 'The Dark Knight'.

[kaytodd]

No acting noms for Revolutionary Road, VanHelsing? That would be surprising.

[VanHelsing]

And here are my September predictions, only for the acting categories...

3 nominations each for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button & W.

2 nominations each for Doubt, Frost/Nixon & Nothing But the Truth

Enjoy!...


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jamie Bell -- Defiance {"Asael Bielski"}
Robert Downey Jr. -- The Soloist {"Steve Lopez"}
James Franco -- Milk {"Scott Smith"}
Heath Ledger -- The Dark Knight {"The Joker"}
Michael Sheen -- Frost/Nixon {"David Frost"}


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams -- Doubt {"Sister James"}
Elizabeth Banks -- W. {"Laura Bush"}
Vera Farmiga -- Nothing But the Truth {"Erica Van Doren"}
Taraji P. Henson -- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button {"Queenie"}
Thandie Newton -- W. {"Condoleezza Rice"}


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Josh Brolin -- W. {"George W. Bush"}
Clint Eastwood -- Gran Torino {"Walt Kowalski"}
Hugh Jackman -- Australia {"The Drover"}
Frank Langella -- Frost/Nixon {"Richard Nixon"}
Brad Pitt -- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button {"Benjamin Button"}


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Kate Beckinsale -- Nothing But the Truth {"Rachel Armstrong"}
Cate Blanchett -- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button {"Daisy"}
Angelina Jolie -- Changeling {"Christine Collins"}
Meryl Streep -- Doubt {"Sister Aloysius"}
Kate Winslet -- The Reader {"Hanna Schmitz"}


That's it folks! :p

[barrybrooks8]

Well, it's Saturday night and I am super (super) bored. So, I thought I would make an early (and I do mean early) prediction list for the major categories for next year. Granted, I made these with some of my own prejudice for the actor or the film. Take this with a grain of salt. I also put them in order of likelihood, sort of.

BEST PICTURE

The Changeling
Miracle at St. Anna
Defiance
The Dark Knight
The Road

BEST DIRECTOR

John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Spike Lee, Miracle at St. Anna
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Edward Zwick, Defiance
John Hillcoat, The Road

BEST ACTOR

Hugh Jackman, Australia
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Greg Kinnear, Flash of Genius
Robert Downey, Jr, The Soloist
Forest Whitaker, Hurricane Season

BEST ACTRESS

Angelina Jolie, The Changeling
Renee Zellweger, Appaloosa
Julianne Moore, Blindness
Charlize Theron, The Road
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey, Jr, Tropic Thunder
Josh Brolin, Milk
Mark Ruffalo, Blindness
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Duvall, The Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patty McCormack, Frost/Nixon
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading
Patricia Clarkson, Elegy
Amy Ryan, The Changeling

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WALL-E
Frozen River
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Australia
The Changeling

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Revolutionary Road
The Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Paranoid Park
Frost/Nixon

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE (Who cares really???)

WALL-E
Horton Hears a Who
Fly Me to the Moon



I got bored....so I added these categories:


BEST ART DIRECTION

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
The Fall
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Doubt

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Changeling
The Fall
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road

BEST EDITING

Australia
Blindness
Defiance
Appaloosa
Miracle of St. Anna

BEST COSTUME

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Appaloosa
Speed Racer
The Duchess
Kit Kittredge: An American Girl

BEST SCORE

WALL-E
Defiance
Australia
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road

BEST SOUND

Appaloosa
Australia
Miracle at St. Anna
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Star Wars: The Clone Wars

BEST SOUND EDITING

Hellboy II
Hancock
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emporer
Iron Man
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Hancock
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Iron Man

BEST MAKEUP

Blindness
City of Ember
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Trumbo
Polanski: Wanted and Desired
Sputnik Mania
Bra Boys
Glass


Total Nominations:

5:
The Changeling
The Road
Revolutionary Road
Australia

4:
Miracle at St. Anna
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Appaloosa
Blindness

3:
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wall-E
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Iron Man

2:
Doubt
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Fall
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Hancock


I think I spread the wealth a little too thin.

[Hustler]

I was flicking through a recent issue of Entertainment Weekly today and someone was touting Cynthia Nixon for an Oscar nod for Sex in the City. Has anyone here on the board even seen this film?

Yep. I did. It´s awful!!!! OMG! What happened to the writers?
It´s just 4 actresses showing their clothes in unbelievable situations. I remember the TV Series as a depp study of the woman of that decade. Don´t waste your time with this crap.



Edited By Hustler on 1215619631

[flipp525]

I was flicking through a recent issue of Entertainment Weekly today and someone was touting Cynthia Nixon for an Oscar nod for Sex in the City. Has anyone here on the board even seen this film?

I haven't seen Sex and the City: The Movie, but Cynthia Nixon is a great actress. Her stage performance in Angels in America was fantastic and she lent a quiet dignity to Eleanor Roosevelt in HBO's Warm Springs. Her performance as Hester Prynne in Phyllis Nagy's feminist adaptation of "The Scarlet Letter" was also somewhat infamous in the NYC theater scene.

I've also heard others praise her turn in SITC. A Cynthia Nixon nod would be rewarding a great stage actress who's been on the scene for years.

With all that said, I'm sure there'll be other nominees to crowd her out. It seems like half the female cast of Syndenoche, New York, for starters.

I've heard wonderful things from people who have seen Richard Jenkins performance in The Visitor. It sounds like the real deal.

Richard Jenkins is a wonderful character actor and I'm ecstatic at the buzz he's been receiving for his performance in The Visitor. He was fabulous in North Country and his turn as the wry, eponymous dead father in Six Feet Under was a true delight.



Edited By flipp525 on 1215608149

[Precious Doll]

Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, not to mention the films itself, will not be nominated. Leigh & Hawkins create one of the most annoying characters to ever grace the silver screen and her victory at Berlin earlier this year is nothing more then a reflection of the poor quality of the competition.

I'd have said much the same about Brenda Blethyn in Secrets and Lies, and she got fairly close to winning best actress.

I've actually heard about this film from several places, mostly more favorable than what you're saying. Apart from Vera Drake, I've never much cared for Leigh, but he does have a way of getting nominated periodically.

Happy Go Lucky will not be nominated for anything. I know a number of other people besides myself who have seen the film and most couldn't stand Hawkins or the film.

Secrets and Lies did build up to a big emotional showdown. Happy Go Lucky does not. The film ends rather abruptly not long after a minor character giving the Hawkins character a piece of his (disturbed) mind. But there is not emotional punch and it was a relief that the whole thing was soon after.

I've heard wonderful things from people who have seen Richard Jenkins performance in The Visitor. It sounds like the real deal.

I was flicking through a recent issue of Entertainment Weekly today and someone was touting Cynthia Nixon for an Oscar nod for Sex in the City. Has anyone here on the board even seen this film?

I have no interest in the film and hope it does not receive a single nod because as an Oscar completess I will feel obliged to see the film.

[The Original BJ]

If Doubt and Frost/Nixon both score, it'll be one of the bigger stage-to-screen years in some time.

And of course, there's always the chance Mamma Mia! could really make your Oscar night special . . . :p

[Mister Tee]

Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, not to mention the films itself, will not be nominated. Leigh & Hawkins create one of the most annoying characters to ever grace the silver screen and her victory at Berlin earlier this year is nothing more then a reflection of the poor quality of the competition.

I'd have said much the same about Brenda Blethyn in Secrets and Lies, and she got fairly close to winning best actress.

I've actually heard about this film from several places, mostly more favorable than what you're saying. Apart from Vera Drake, I've never much cared for Leigh, but he does have a way of getting nominated periodically.

A few other thoughts about this Oscar article:

Has anyone seen The Visitor? Despite its relatively low profile, it's now well outgrossed things like Half Nelson. Is a Jenkins best actor nomination really in the cards?

On the page, The Secret Life of Bees was a pleasant-enough To Kill a Mockingbird knockoff, but the utterly unimaginative casting of Queen Latifah and Dakota Fanning suggests it'll be a Hallmark production all the way.

Jonathan Demme's movie has Debra Winger in a featured role, which is one of those things that gets a never-got-over-1983 old-timer's juices flowing.

As Nathaniel at The Film Experience says, the elements of The Soloist sound like a parody of an Oscar wannabe -- something Paul Rudnick would come up with to mock.

If Doubt and Frost/Nixon both score, it'll be one of the bigger stage-to-screen years in some time. There were periods (check the 50s) when Broadway transfers dominated the Oscars, but since the 90s it's been a far less common phenomenon.

I can't say this list as a whole fills me with anticipation. Aside from Benjamin Button, Changeling and Revolutionary Road, it all seems blah. But of course one never knows.

[Sabin]

It's not makeup. Brad Pitt is digitized into Benjamin Button in every stage of life through visual effects. It's Brad Pitt's performance and a synthesized baby body. It's going to win Best Visual Effects almost hands down, and up-and-comer commercial DP Claudio Miranda has to be a lock for Best Cinematography. American Cinematographer has been profiling him for years now for his innovative commercial work. He's also gaffed Fincher's 'Zodiac', 'Fight Club', 'The Game', and 'Se7en' and done 2nd Unit work when the notoriously demanding director couldn't bring his DPs back.

Also, it looks like 'Big Fish' with an old-makeuped baby.

[Okri]

I'm still gonna need some explanation of how the film is a "quantum leap forward in cinematic technological advancement," regardless.

[Sabin]

No, it doesn't.