Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Harry Goldfarb wrote
I still find weird that Lithgow wasn’t more in the race. The character is pretty showy, a prominent antagonist and the story’s true detonant. A real life figure, Lithgow being due to some and coming hot from The Crown and the larger than life approach applied by Lithgow are factors that should have add up to the equation. Having said that, the five eventual nominees are among the best lineup this category has ever seen.

He sounded like a slam dunk but I think he's undone by the material a bit. It's a shakier film than one might expect (in it's writing and directing especially) and by the end of it I was surprised at the number of things that left me feeling confused by. It's depiction of Roger Ailes is front and center. There's something almost sympathetic in how pathetic he is depicted in his predacious scenes. John Lithgow is quite good but he lends the role a bit more humanity than the film quite knows what to do with. I wonder if that ultimately turned voters off, or at the very least left them indifferent while other more confident depictions in the film (Theron, Robbie, the makeup) were just easier to endorse.

I don't love the lineup quite as much as you do. I think they're all quite good, Joe Pesci and Al Pacino especially. Brad Pitt is a lot of fun in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood but he's a lead. I do like that he eventually won an Oscar for giving a performance that demonstrates his movie star talents. I don't know if Anthony Hopkins is especially great in The Two Popes but it was nice seeing him ripping into something meaty again. I'm not a big fan of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood or Tom Hanks in it, but I did like the final scene a lot.

My votes for GOAT would be that remarkable stretch between 1992-1994. I'd also go to bat for 2007.

I still find weird that Lithgow wasn’t more in the race. The character is pretty showy, a prominent antagonist and the story’s true detonant. A real life figure, Lithgow being due to some and coming hot from The Crown and the larger than life approach applied by Lithgow are factors that should have add up to the equation. Having said that, the five eventual nominees are among the best lineup this category has ever seen.

The poll has ended.

There were 17 participants. All 17 predicted Joe Pesci, 16 predicted Brad Pitt, 15 predicted Al Pacino, 9 predicted Tom Hanks and 8 predicted Anthony Hopkins and Song Kang-Ho setting up a tie in predictions for the fifth slot.

If our thus far 13 predictions mirror the Academy's thinking, then the nominees will be Pesci and Pitt (13 out of 13), Pacino (12 out of 13), Hanks (9 out of 13) and Hopkins (7 out of 13).

I tend to think Pacino, Pesci & Pitt are locked in. Though Brad Pitt belongs in the lead category.

The other two I opted for and Hanks & Song (hoping against hope that Parasite will over perform) but its fairly wide open. I think the biggest think going against Hanks is that the character he portrays in the film is not known outside North America and as a result there is little interest in the film itself. Really depends of the ratio of American/Non-American voters to get him through.

As for DaFoe, if he can sneak in for At Eternity's Gate there's no reason he won't do the same for The Lighthouse.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Pesci & Pitt are in in.I'm not terribly sold on Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood but I think good will shall prevail in a weak year for Hanks. It's a nice performance as well. I'm also not 100% on Al Pacino but the fact that he's finally collaborating with Scorsese will help. That leaves one spot open and I"m a bit Seeing The Two Popes soon but I have a feeling it's fundamentally not a hot ticket. I'm feeling the same way about Just Mercy. Racism isn't the year's hot topic. My three hunches are Song Kang Ho (Parasite), Willem DaFoe (The Lighthouse), and Alan Alda (Marriage Story). Coattails favor Alda, who got in similarly for The Aviator. I think he has the standout performance of the film but he might be a bit too subdued and in the center of the film, forgotten. They also favor Song Kang Ho but I think it's too much of an ensemble piece. I'm leaving towards Willem DaFoe. He's in the Academy's club with two nominations in a row prior. Despite probably no other nominations, A24 pushes hard. And he has a huge, showy role.

I'll do this for all four acting categories.

The Oscar nominations will be announced on January 13th. Let's see if our collective guesses match the Academy's.

The poll will only take 20 options so out of the nineteen possible nominees listed and a write-in, pick five you think will most likely be nominated. If choosing a write-in, it would be helpful to put the name in a comment.

You can change your vote any time you want, just X out the candidate you're eliminating and put your X next to the one you want to designate instead.

The poll will run through January 12th, the day before the nominations are announced.