Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Mister Tee wrote
And, you know what? -- it's certainly the right year to try it. I'll go into this in more detail in my post-festival thread, but the best actor category is almost entirely open -- only one certainty, and that not an especially outstanding one. Nominations have a way of getting stratified by blogger repetition (and eventually Broadcaster/Globe picks), but this year I think the template will be a lot slower to form. So almost anything has a chance at this point.

I remember a scene from 'Birdman' where Michael Keaton is Zach Galifinakis who else they can get to recast a part and each name he mentions is currently playing a superhero in a new movie. I can't help but feel like this is the real reason why Best Actor is an increasingly barren category. Ironically, 2014 was the last time that Best Actor felt crowded with possibilities. Sure, by the end it is seemed clear that it was going to be Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton, but going into the race that certainly wasn't a given. And yes, last year was a down to the wire race between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington, but in a truly competitive year I don't think Viggo Mortensen, Ryan Gosling, or Andrew Garfield wouldn't be nominated. Neither would Bryan Cranston, Matt Damon, or Eddie Redmayne the year before. I know it's only been two years in a row, but I fear that this is the new normal.

I've also been wondering about Lucky today. It will be released in 10 days, would definitely benefit from a savvy screener strategy and has both the posthumous angle and that which would have meant Stanton would have been the oldest actor ever nominated for an Oscar (IIRC). Stanton received career-best reviews but the film itself has also been highly lauded. I'd been toying with the idea of Sam Elliott as a screener-vet campaign beneficiary but Stanton would make even more sense and be even more likely.

Sabin wrote:Could Harry Dean Stanton get nominated for 'Lucky' (a movie I didn't know existed)?

Awfully glad to read you saying this -- I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one who didn't have this on radar.

We've of course had posthumous nominations, including one -- Massimo Troissi -- for whom the posthumous element was part of the film's campaign. (Maybe you'd count the didn't-make-it-but-at-least-got-SAG Gandolfini in that category, as well -- though he got truly outstanding notices.) This, however, would be the first case I can think of where the nomination campaign wouldn't have likely existed without the untimely death.

And, you know what? -- it's certainly the right year to try it. I'll go into this in more detail in my post-festival thread, but the best actor category is almost entirely open -- only one certainty, and that not an especially outstanding one. Nominations have a way of getting stratified by blogger repetition (and eventually Broadcaster/Globe picks), but this year I think the template will be a lot slower to form. So almost anything has a chance at this point.

For the past two years, Best Actor has seemed sparser and sparser. I don't know if this is a short trend or a larger trend of the kinds of films that are being made. Could Harry Dean Stanton get nominated for 'Lucky' (a movie I didn't know existed)? Sure. It doesn't seem very likely but he could possibly get a critic's award from a group that doesn't go for Gary Oldman for 'Darkest Hour' or...Daniel Day-Lewis in 'Phantom Thread' (if it's not a lunatic film) or...yeah, who knows? I could throw a competitive Best Actress lineup together. And despite the fact that we haven't seen/heard anything about 'The Post' or 'Phantom Thread,' I could do one for Best Supporting Actor or Actress. But Best Actor? No idea.

I think Stanton could more than sneak in. His death puts a spotlight on a film that no one was talking about before it happened.

Posthumous nominations are rare, but if the trailer and early reviews are any indication, Stanton who was 90 at the time of filming, seems to be giving the kind of performance that Paul Newman at 70 and Richard Farnsworth at 80 gave in Nobody's Fool and The Straight Story, two performances that should have won and might have done so had they not been up against Tom Hanks and Kevin Spacey who were part of the award-winning juggernauts of Forrest Gump and American Beauty. This year's early favorite, Dunkirk, has no stars to be pulled along with their film, which could make Stanton the first posthumous winner since Peter Finch in Network.

I think Stanton could sneak it. Goodness he must have worked with just about every Academy member at some point in career.

That the film and his performance have both been warmed received isn't going to hurt.

ThePianist wrote:

Reza wrote:Is Harry Dean Stanton in the running for Lucky?

No. But I expect him to be in competition for at least a few critics awards, especially after his passing.

Why would you outright say no? Are the top 5 already cast in stone? We still have 3.5 months to go before the year ends. Anything could happen between now and then.

Reza wrote:Is Harry Dean Stanton in the running for Lucky?

No. But I expect him to be in competition for at least a few critics awards, especially after his passing.

Is Harry Dean Stanton in the running for Lucky?

If Wonder Wheel doesn't meet expectations to garner Winslet a nomination, then I'd expect Vega to possibly make it in, considering the hype she's been getting. There's absolutely no way Emma Stone gets in for a wannabe crowd pleaser that's garnered mixed reviews (at best) so far.

flipp525 wrote:

bizarre wrote:Has The Wife been picked up with a release plan for this year? Someone earlier in the thread said it had been sent to next year a la Away from Her, but I couldn't find anything backing that claim up.

I'm sorry, that was me. I heard it on another message board I frequent and took it at face value without following up on it. It made so much sense to me that a distributor would hold off on dropping it now after having seen the surfeit of contenders this year.

The Children Act is definitely moving to next year though.

No worries - for what it's worth I think that'd be the smartest release strategy for The Wife and I'm expecting whoever picks it up to run with that, though I guess we'll see within the coming weeks.

Anyone guess what category Jordan Peele would be placed in at the DGAs? I'd imagine It be the first time director, but he's been getting too much critical praise and plus Universal is behind him.

Sabin wrote:I'm telling you. It's going to be Bush vs. Clinton again.

ThePianist wrote:Here's a neat analysis I've heard; Every BP winner after The Departed had a screening at either Cannes, Venice or Telluride. And also had a US release before December. If the coincidental trend doesn't stop, one of these film could win Best Picture:

Nice Snarky Sarcastic Remark, Mate.

I'm telling you. It's going to be Bush vs. Clinton again.

It seems Battle of the Sexes has no chance for a nomination, Darkest Hour is a somewhat well-received Drama that'll receive a BP Nom to even further benefit Oldman, and I'm still a bit iffy on Lady Bird's Chances to get in.

That just leaves Three Billboards and The Florida Project.

And while Three Billboards is defiantly critically acclaimed and benefits from a fantastic performance by McDormand, It's far from something the AMPAS would generally vote for Best Picture. That just leaves The Florida Project, which has always been a Top 5 Contender for me ever since the Awards Season Release Date was announced. Not only will a BP win for this film make a political message in regards to the state of American Poverty, but It’s an absolute beauty of a film that doesn’t look down on these people. To quote Brian Tallerico from RogerEbert.com; “It is an all-too-common story of a single mother and her daughter on the edge of the social ladder, but it is told in a way that embraces its details instead of trying to achieve some sort of universal statement. Co-writer/director Sean Baker very carefully conveys the specific truths of his characters’ daily lives and it’s that honesty that makes “The Florida Project” so powerful. This is a remarkable film, one of the best of the year.” (Plus, It will definitely benefit, ‘some’ at the very least, after what happened with Irma.)