Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

I want to say that I'm surprised how Charlotte Rampling shot out of nowhere for a first round victory.

And also that I'm glad that the Best Actor contest was more respectable here. Can't say I have a favorite...but neither Keaton nor Ruffalo were that distinguished in Spotlight to deserve the accolade.

Amazing.

As most of the voters overlap with the NYFCC (especially beginning with the 2nd round), it's good to see how the preferences might have split at NYFCC.

Spotlight was a decent/good movie but I didn't find it amazing.

Mister Tee wrote:

Okri wrote:

Mister Tee wrote:Full stats with runners-up, per Awards Daily.

DIRECTOR:
*1.Todd Haynes (Carol) 21
2. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) 21 (because he was on fewer ballots)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) 20

Oh wow. Just... wow. Tom Hooper, all is forgiven.

That is amazing, isn't it? -- that we came that close to the born-with-Blowup National Society declaring Tom McCarthy the year's best director.

Okri wrote:

Mister Tee wrote:Full stats with runners-up, per Awards Daily.

DIRECTOR:
*1.Todd Haynes (Carol) 21
2. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) 21 (because he was on fewer ballots)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) 20

Oh wow. Just... wow. Tom Hooper, all is forgiven.

That is amazing, isn't it? -- that we came that close to the born-with-Blowup National Society declaring Tom McCarthy the year's best director.

Mister Tee wrote:Full stats with runners-up, per Awards Daily.

DIRECTOR:
*1.Todd Haynes (Carol) 21
2. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) 21 (because he was on fewer ballots)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) 20

Oh wow. Just... wow. Tom Hooper, all is forgiven.

Full stats with runners-up, per Awards Daily.

The three winners with over 50 points own on first ballot; the others went to the later, more limited (proxies tossed) vote.

PICTURE:
*1. Spotlight (Tom McCarthy) 23
2. Carol (Todd Haynes) 17
3. Mad Max: Fury Road (George Miller) 13

DIRECTOR:
*1.Todd Haynes (Carol) 21
2. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) 21 (because he was on fewer ballots)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) 20

BEST ACTRESS:
*1. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) 57
2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) 30
3. Nina Hoss (Phoenix) 22

BEST ACTOR:
*1. Michael B. Jordan (Creed) 29 points
2. Geza Rohrig (Son of Saul) 18
3. Tom Courtenay (45 Years) 15

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
*1. Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria) 53
2. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina) 23
3. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) 17
3. Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) 17

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
*1. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) 56
2. Michael Shannon (99 Homes) 16
3. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) 14

BEST SCREENPLAY:
*1. Spotlight (Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy) 21
2. Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman) 15
2. The Big Short (Charles Randolph and Adam McKay) 15

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
*1. Carol (Ed Lachman) 25
2. The Assassin (Mark Lee Ping-bin) 22
3. Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale) 12

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
*1. Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissako) 22
2. Phoenix (Christian Petzold) 20
3. The Assassin (Hou Hsiao-hsien) 16

BEST NON-FICTION FILM:
*1. Amy (Asif Kapadia) 23
2. In Jackson Heights (Frederick Wiseman) 18
3. Seymour: An Introduction (Ethan Hawke) 15

Given the National Society's reputation for going their own way with awards, it's a little shocking to see just a slate of nearly-entirely repeat winners from NY and LA. (The sole exception is Best Actor.)

Spotlight, especially, feels quite middle-of-the-road as a Best Picture winner for the group that just last year went with Goodbye to Language. But its strong showing here probably reflects the reasoning most of us have been using in thinking it the Best Picture favorite -- in a year without a lot of titles everyone loves, this is the movie a majority really like, and sometimes that middle ground consensus can carry the day.

As far as late-breaking Best Actor spoilers go, I'd much prefer Géza Rohrig, Tom Courtenay, or Steve Carell to Jordan, who I think is a solid anchor to Creed, but not much more. Still, Jordan seems a more energizing prospect than a lot of the default candidates winning attention (Cranston/Depp/Redmayne), so if he were to knock out one of those guys, I wouldn't be remotely bothered.

Charlotte Rampling seems to have amassed the profile Marion Cotillard did last year (and Riva a couple years prior) -- missing Globe/SAG, but winning two major critics prizes. Cotillard, of course, was competing in a much less competitive year, but Rampling has the advantage of a movie in English, and one that's far more accessible than Two Days, One Night. I still rate her more likely than not to get an Oscar nomination, simply because I imagine if enough voters watch that performance, there's no way they wouldn't vote for it.

Rylance definitely seems to have moved into front-runner position -- he's just about the only Supporting Actor candidate I think is totally safe for a nomination -- but I still view him as a soft front-runner. Depending on who the other nominees are, I could still imagine one of them overtaking him for the win.

Stewart still seems a long-shot to me, but in a category that all over-the-place, I guess you never know.

Pretty much if it's a first ballot win (as, per Sam Adams' tweets, Rampling, Rylance & Stewart were), you can expect something that's been winning widely. Past that, the apparently more predictable proxy voters are out of the vote, and the remaining stalwarts do something more unexpected (like Goodbye to Language last year, and Jordan today).

Who knows! Maybe they'll pick Son of Saul for Best Foreign-Language Film next!

Todd Haynes

Sabin wrote:I'm even more grateful for Jordan's win now. These picks are boooooring.

Agreed.

I'm even more grateful for Jordan's win now. These picks are boooooring.

Best Picture -- Spotlight

Best Cinematography -- Carol

BEST SCREENPLAY: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight"

How Tee feels about Jordan I feel about this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kristen Stewart, "Clouds of Sils Maria"

I couldn't tell if Sabin was being predictive or if he saw the tweet....