Personal Oscar Predictions

[Dien]

And Fox is pushing for a "Best Supporting Actor" nomination for Andy Serkis in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Honestly, if he didn't get a nod for Gollum in Lord of the Rings or King Kong in, well, you know - then I don't see this happening.

[Dien]

Did an update to my predictions.

[Dien]

Apparently Warner Bros. is pushing Harry Potter for Academy consideration.

[OscarGuy]

Having just watched Tree of Life, I guarantee its score will be declared ineligible. If they said Truman Show's score would be confused with the pre-existing work used in the film, there's no doubt that Alexandre Desplat's composition, which is very closely aligned with the myriad classical pieces used, would be easily confused by voters. Desplat is a much more likely nominee for the final Harry Potter film than Tree of Life.

[Sabin]

I don't agree with everything there, but what I do think is fairly astute is that, with the exception of War Horse, a foreign film is the likeliest to grab the most nominations.

[dws1982]

Cinematography, and maybe score, and perhaps Pitt.

Score almost certainly won't be eligible--very little of the music used in the film is original.

[criddic3]

Not too sure about the screenplay nod for Tree of Life. They may like Malick, but even Sean Penn criticized the structure of the film. Is it really popular enough among the Academy types to nominate it for Best Picture? I can see Malick as a director getting into the final five, if only based on his reputation as a visionary. Cinematography, and maybe score, and perhaps Pitt. Those I can see happening. Picture and Screenplay seem like real long shots to me.

[Dien]

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Life's a Happy Song", The Muppets
music & lyrics by Bret McKenzie

"Pictures in My Mind", The Muppets
music & lyrics by Bret McKenzie ???

This would make the show 100% better if they got the Muppets on stage.

[anonymous1980]

My first attempt at predicting the Oscars:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

The Artist (France3 Cinema/The Weinstein Company) Thomas Langmann and Emmanuel Montamat, producers.

The Descendants (20th Century Fox) Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor and Jim Burke, producers.

The Help (Dreamworks/Touchstone Picture) Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus and Brunson Green, producers.

Hugo (Paramount Pictures) Graham King, Martin Scorsese and Tim Headington, producers.

Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics) Letty Aronson, Jaume Rores and Stephen Tenenbaum, producers.

Moneyball (Columbia Pictures) Michael De Luca, Brad Pitt and Rachel Horovtiz, producers.

The Tree of Life (Plan B. Entertainment) Brad Pitt, Sarah Green and Grant Hill, producers.

War Horse (Dreamworks/Touchstone Pictures) Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, The Help
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shaleine Woodley, The Descendants

BEST SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN

The Artist
Written by Michael Hazanavicius

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

Shame
Written by Abi Morgan & Steve McQueen

The Tree of Life
Written by Terrence Malick

Young Adult
Written by Diablo Cody

BEST SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED or PUBLISHED

The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne, Nate Faxon and Jim Rash
Based on the novel by Kaui Hart Hemmings

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan
Based on the children's book The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick.

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin.
Based on the book by Michael Lewis

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Screenplay by Peter Straughan and Bridget O'Connor
Based on the novel by John la Carre.

War Horse
Screenplay by Richard Curtis and Lee Hall
Based on the novel Michael Mopurgo.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Edouardo Serra, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Robert Richardson, Hugo
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION

The Artist
Laurence Bennett (art direction) & Robert Gould (set decoration)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Stuart Craig (art direction) & Stephanie McMillan (set decoration)

Hugo
Dante Ferretti (art direction) & Francesca LoSchiavo (set decoration)

Jane Eyre
Will Hughes-Jones (art direction) & Tina Jones (set decoration)

War Horse
Rick Carter (art direction) & Lee Sandales (set decoration)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Alisa Lepselter, Midnight in Paris
Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball
Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey, Super 8
Michael Kahn, War Horse

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Howard Shore, Hugo
Michael Giacchino, Super 8
John Williams, War Horse

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Life's a Happy Song", The Muppets
music & lyrics by Bret McKenzie

"Pictures in My Mind", The Muppets
music & lyrics by Bret McKenzie ???

"The Star-Spangled Man", Captain America: The First Avenger
music by Alan Menken & lyrics by David Zippel

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mark Bridges, The Artist
Sharen Davis, The Help
Sandy Powell, Hugo
Michael O'Connor, Jane Eyre
Sonia Grande, Midnight in Paris

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges and Andy Nelson, The Adventures of Tintin
Scott Millan, David Parker and Steve Schatz, Captain America: The First Avenger
Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Anna Behlmer and Christopher Scaraborsio, Super 8
Craig Berkey, Jeremy Peirson and Christopher Scaraborsio, The Tree of Life
Tom Johnson, Andy Nelson and Gary Rydstrom, War Horse

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Brent Berge and David Whitehead, The Adventures of Tintin
Addison Teague, Rango
Chuck Michael, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood, Super 8
Erik Aahdahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, Transformers: Dark of the Moon

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Craig Barron, Thomas J. Burton, Vincent Cirelli and Sean Andrew Faden, Captain America: The First Avenger
Tim Burke, Matt Jacobs, Steve Hamilton and John Moffat, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Robert Legato, Craig Barron, Joss Williams and Ben Grossman, Hugo
Joe Letteri, Erik Winquist, Eric Reynolds and Dan Lemmon, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Douglas Trumbull, Dan Glass, Tom Debenham and Bryan Hirota, The Tree of Life

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Matthew W. Mungle and Lorraine Glynn Whelan, Albert Nobbs
Heike Merker and Björn Rehbein, Anonymous
David White and Lisa Wescott, Captain America: The First Avenger

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount/Nickelodeon) Steven Spielberg
Arthur Christmas (Aardman Studios) Sarah Smith
Chico & Rita (Isle of Man Films) Fernando Trueba
Rango (Nickelodeon Movies) Gore Verbinski
Winnie The Pooh (Walt Disney Pictures) Stephen J. Anderson and Don Hall

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Flowers of War (China) Zhang Yimou, director
In Darkness (Poland) Agnieszka Holland, director
Pina (Germany) Wim Wenders, director
A Separation (Iran) Asghar Faradi, director
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon) Nadine Labaki, director

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Buck (Cedar Creek Productions) Cindy Meehl and Julie Goldman
Hell and Back Again (Roast Beef Productions Limited) Danfung Dennis and Martin Herring
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (@radical.media) Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky.
Project Nim (Red Box Films) James Marsh and Simon Chinn.
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat (JUF Pictures, Inc.) Martyn Burke.

I'm predicting an Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close shut-out. Risky, I know.

[Big Magilla]

Best Picture/Director
For sure:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
War Horse
Strongly in the running:
The Help
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Iffy:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball

Best Actor
For sure:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinke Tailor Soldier Spy
Strongly in the running:
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress
For sure:
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Strongly in the running:
Genn Close, Albert Nobbs
Elizabeth Olson, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor
For sure:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extrememely Loud and Incredibly Close
Strongly in the running:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Robert Forster, The Desendnats
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Best Supporting Actress
For sure:
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Strongly in the running:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

[Uri]

My movie watching experience this weekend was all about watching films almost solely for the sake of catching up with two likely nominees for best actor.

How on earth is Gary Oldman considered a contender? Yes, yes, I know – it's Sid Vicious, it's Joe Orton, it's Dracula – and now he's doing a totally acceptable brown paper bag, Guinnessian stiff upper lip everyman. Other than efficiently serving a skeleton, briefed in version of a novel which was better served by its previous adaptation, there's really nothing for him to do. Even if one is of the opinion Oldman is due – a debatable argument, since what makes/made him this rather canonized actor is him being the ultimate anti Oscar-friendly thespian, hence a win for him might be looked at an insult – honoring him this time seems to be totally, and unjustifiably, whimsical.

On the other hand, I totally get the Brad Pitt buzz. Ok, Moneyball is a movie about baseball, and as far as I'm concerned it could have been about income tax regulations in Peru – I have the same amount of knowledge of and/or interest in both these subjects. But once one is willing to accept this Sorkinian hymn praising the concept of moderate (ish) capitalism, it's a perfectly enjoyable film, and it's all about Pitt's charismatic, effortless charm. No – here he's certainly not entering any new, Max Von Sydov like territories acting wise (the way he did, to some extent, in The Tree of Life), but while I personally might not consider him for any major award for his work here, I can see why he will probably be embraced by the Academy and I could live perfectly fine with this notion.

[Okri]

Fwiw, the Brit critics are largely positive on The Iron Lady (except the Daily Mail), but they love homegrown product.

Doesn't Mister Tee have a rule like once you win, you become more likely for those filler nominations? Charlize Theron in North Country, Helen Mirren in The Last Station.... both were leading nominations, though. I don't see that as an issue, though.

[The Original BJ]

Are you in some way constrained from offering a full take on the film? Because your throwaway comments on it have piqued my interest, being the only first-hand (not routed through publicist) response I've heard, and I'd love a fuller reaction. By the way, why are you in on all these early screenings? -- SAG Nominating Committee, or just knowing the right people?

With respect to Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, I actually am constrained from saying much about that film at this point. Once the early reviews start to pop up, I'll feel more comfortable sharing.

With respect to your second question, I'd say I'm just finally starting to know the right people, but that would make me sound WAY more special than I am. Putting it another way -- sometimes a lot of friends in low places can get you far, provided they're the right places. (And I've had to turn down great invites too, like Tintin last night, because of work obligations.)

[bizarre]

I'll do the other major categories now. I think that J. Edgar may have dropped off the radar entirely outside of its principal actors. Ranked in likelihood of a nomination:

BEST PICTURE
1. The Artist
2. The Help
3. The Descendants
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. War Horse

7. Moneyball
8. Midnight in Paris
9. The Tree of Life
10. Drive

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
3. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Steven Spielberg, War Horse

6. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
7. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
8. Bennett Miller, Moneyball
9. Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
10. Jason Reitman, Young Adult

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. The Help

6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Carnage
8. War Horse
9. The Ides of March
10. A Dangerous Method

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Midnight in Paris
2. Young Adult
3. The Artist
4. Martha Marcy May Marlene
5. Take Shelter

6. Beginners
7. A Separation
8. Shame
9. Like Crazy
10. Bridesmaids

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
1. In Darkness
2. A Separation
3. Footnote
4. Where Do We Go Now?
5. Declaration of War

6. Terraferma
7. Beyond
8. Black Bread
9. The Flowers of War
10. The Orator

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Rango
2. The Adventures of Tintin
3. Arthur Christmas
4. A Cat in Paris
5. Wrinkles

6. Chico & Rita
7. Kung Fu Panda 2
8. Cars 2
9. Alois Nebel
10. Puss in Boots

[bizarre]

I haven't been the best at anticipating the Academy's affection for Stephen Daldry films OR Sandra Bullock...but having seen Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, I'm not as sold on Sandra Bullock's chances as web consensus seems to be. She has a fairly reserved part, and unless the movie becomes a big hit, and she's just SO well-liked by Hollywood that she can now get nominated for anything remotely serious, I'm not sure enough people will be THAT excited by her work here. (I'd definitely side with what I assume Mister Tee will argue with respect to her candidacy -- is she REALLY the kind of actress who needs a Supporting Oscar nomination?)

There's no WAY Tom Hanks places, though -- he's barely even in the movie. Max von Sydow's chances are better -- supporting actor seems the haziest of any of the acting categories, and if it ends up being a weak slate, why wouldn't some voters just push for another nod for the legend? But, frankly, it wouldn't shock me if he didn't enter the conversation either, if there are enough interesting candidates.

You've seen the film? How is Zoe Caldwell? There were mutterings earlier in the year and her role is large in the novel.