Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

I'd say Best Picture looks pretty competitive between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle right now. HFPA helped Hustle more than they helped 12 Years, but at the moment, I'm still sticking with the latter.

Best Director going to Cuarón doesn't necessarily mean anything, because HFPA likes to award better established directors like Cuarón rather than relative newcomers like McQueen. I don't think losing here hurts McQueen's chances at the Oscars (Russell, on the other hand, could have needed this).

Best Actor seems to be going McConaughey's way, unless DiCaprio begins to pick up surprise momentum. Ejiofor seems to be sinking, unless he wins something soon.

I'd say Best Actress and Supporting Actor are close to being locks.

Best Supporting Actress? I suppose the Globes just went with the biggest star, as they sometimes do. Lawrence can't possibly win two Oscars at such a young age, can she? I'd still say that Nyong'o has a better shot at the Oscars.

Globes have been pretty reliable predictors with the Best Screenplay category, so I'd say Her is looking good in the Original Screenplay category, although if Hustle goes all the way to win Best Picture it could sweep this one as well.

In the Foreign Language category, is it too early to say that The Great Beauty is now the front-runner?

FilmFan720 wrote:Here is my Best Picture question: I could see a very likely situation where American Hustle wins SAG next weekend, Alfonso Cuaron goes on to win at DGA and then 12 Years a Slave wins at PGA? What happens then?!?

We all enjoy our Oscar parties more than we have in years.

As for DiCaprio: through late Fall, as everyone kept asserting the best actor slate was frozen, the one game-changer I thought was out there was DiCaprio, for the point-in-career reasons you mention. When the film opened to such vehemently-expressed hatred from some, I thought his chances were gone. But the film's surprising commercial resilience might indicate at least a core of enthusiastic support. Should he got nominated, in a field that's looking wide open, 20%+1 might be all that's needed to put him over the top. But that's getting way ahead of ourselves.

The Awards Daily folk had close to a meltdown tonight -- leaping from "this organization is disgraceful/shutting out 12 Years means they're meaningless" to "12 Years won; it's winning the Oscar!" in a split second. Someone there actually claimed that Ejiofor remains the front-runner for best actor -- based on what I have no clue, as Ejiofor hasn't won a single thing that normally points that way. (Though the full blogger fantasy panel -- Slave/Ejiofor/Blanchett/Leto/Nyong'o -- will almost surely be trotted out Thursday night at the Broadcast show)

When Johnny Depp read out "12 Years a Slave" as Best Picture, my first thought was also that it truly seemed like more out of duty than passion that it won. But it also got the biggest reaction out of the room of the night (next to the George Clooney joke...), meaning that maybe it is a little more industry-loved than the HFPA could make it look.

Here is my Best Picture question: I could see a very likely situation where American Hustle wins SAG next weekend, Alfonso Cuaron goes on to win at DGA and then 12 Years a Slave wins at PGA? What happens then?!?

Also, is Leonardo DiCaprio a lot stronger a candidate than he is getting credit for. That audience ate him up today, he is certainly considered more "due" for an award than Ejiofor or McConaughey (and possible even Dern) and if a large enough contingency wants to award WOWS, this could be the place to do it.

Dare we hope this bountiful year actually remains the largely open contest it's appeared to be from the start? Yeah, best actress is locked (I presume even Magilla believes that now), and Leto is going to be hard to stop (though we know he won't win BAFTA). But the other two acting awards appear pretty wide open, and film/director felt like a three-way tie tonight.

12 Years taking best film at the end felt almost apologetic ("we can't let it go home with nothing"), but some films in about the same situation (The English Patient, Gladiator) ended up launching to Oscar wins from there. (Though Bugsy and Babel certainly didn't) I'd say this victory confirms the precise feeling I've had (and heard) about 12 Years' status in the race overall: a lot of reservations, but still in it.

Best actor is now a true clusterfuck. I was almost hoping for Redford to win, since it would have created a situation where neither Globe winner was guaranteed an Oscar slot (and, in fact, it would have been hard to envision both making it). I'd heard HFPA really didn't like Wolf, only nominated it under duress, but their love of star power won out. I have to say I think this is DiCaprio's most completely successful performance since the Gilbert Grape days, and he's not undeserving. But it's very hard to imagine AMPAS going along with a film that offensive to the blue-haired set.

I'd said here before I thought McConnaughey might win SAG, as the broadly popular star; I didn't expect it here. He could conceivably build major momentum in the next week.

Blanchett's win was predictable/deserved. And her speech was probably the night's most memorable.

The Gravity people would no doubt have preferred winning best picture, but the singling out of Cuaron under director remains one of the season's most dominant features. Nichols in The Graduate and, maybe/maybe, Soderbergh for his two films, are the only two comparable "we choose you as director, best picture be damned" choices I can think of in the half century I've been watching the Oscars. He could go all the way on that ticket.

I presume Nyong'o will win at the Broadcasters Thursday, but the SAG vote will be interesting -- if Lawrence wins there, it's hard not to view her as front-runner. If, say, one of the Oprah/Squibb/Roberts group does, the award is wide-open.

And great for Jonze winning screenplay, for a graceful, lovely piece of writing/filmmaking. Though the film's commercial fizzle might make him less strong a contender.

So, reports HFPA hated Blue is the Warmest turned out true.

As for TV, I mostly don't care. Though, when Jacqueline Bisset was read out as a nominee, I thought, my god, when I first saw her (in Bullitt), I was still in high school, amd I bet she's never won anything in all that time. So, good for her.

Tina & Amy were funny, at least at the start (the Clooney joke killed), but the show was a lot more of a mess than last year's. Tina's line about "thye keep asking ou back till they hate you" was all too true; they ought to stay clear of becoming regular hosts.