First 2009 predictions - It's time...

[OscarGuy]

I have both Mulligan and Clooney in the short list and that's where they're staying for the moment.

Matt Damon. The trailer for his film looks utterly stupid. And Damon doesn't look that great to me. Is he really even in consideration here? It seems so unusual, especially considering the tone of the film, it just doesn't seem like the kind of film the Academy would see, let alone nominate from.

I have Public Enemies down simply for the fact that people seem to hate it so much. It's just the kind of bonehead move the Academy likes to make. After all, while you may have heard negatives about the cinematography, I've heard people talk about how much they liked the look of the film.

I nominate It Might Get Loud just to be different. It's a documentary about rock guitar legends, so I expect there to be music of some sort in it, so I thought I'd just stick it in for the shit of it (that and I can't pick which of the stupid blockbusters would more likely fill the slot...or perhaps I don't want to think about it.)

While The Tree of Life is an unknown quantity and might not be released, I think it might be a good bet for a nomination simply on Malick's name. The New World didn't look that good on paper, but then again neither did The Thin Red Line and it got nominated. With ten spaces to fill, I think someone more auteurist like Malick has a better chance at a nomination.

And at this point, I'm not counting out Jackson. Aside from King Kong (which still got decent critical response, mind you), Jackson has been in the Oscar derby before and we're not just talking LOTR. Heavenly Creatures proved the Academy likes his softer work. And with the subject matter and the popularity of the book, It's a stronger contender than most other films in competition this year except for maybe Nine, which is another unknown entity.



Edited By OscarGuy on 1253901050

[Sabin]

Big Omissions (by which I mean that I'm pretty goddamn certain they're in line for at least a nomination):


BEST ACTOR: Matt Damon, THE INFORMANT!
BEST ACTOR: George Clooney, UP IN THE AIR
BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION

Beyond that, it's incredibly hard to tell but I think you're placing a little too much faith in THE LOVELY BONES and THE TREE OF LIFE. The latter appeals to me greatly but we'll have to wait and see if it even comes out.

I want to mention that if PUBLIC ENEMIES is nominated for Cinematography, chairs will go through the windows of offices, houses, and apartments all across America. It will 100% no doubt in my mind NOT be nominated. Audiences, simps, people with no knowledge of how movies are made on any level complained about the look of the film. It has no earthy chance of a nomination.

Also pretty sure IT MIGHT GET LOUD won't be nominated for Best Sound Mixing.

[rolotomasi99]

So, the observation was that there are no guarantees for Meryl. Devil Wears Prada was a guarantee. We ALL saw it long before the Oscars. But not all of us are seeing the Julie & Julia trend. So, you can say that it's much like that film, but it's really not in that it doesn't scream Oscar or critical attention away Prada did.

There! That is what I do not understand. In what universe was THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA more likely going to garner her an Oscar nomination than JULIE AND JULIA is now?

On paper, I think playing Julia Child in a biopic adapted (in part) from her memoirs seems far more likely to be recognized for a lead actress nomination than her supporting role in a fluffy comedy playing a character based somewhat on Anna Wintour in a movie adapted from a trashy paperback looked down upon by critics.

I saw THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA the weekend it opened, and I immediately put Streep down for an Oscar nomination in the supporting category based on its excellence and the support from critics. It was only later in the year when five stronger lead female performances did not emerge that she began to be pushed for the lead actress category.

I think the fact that she was nominated for lead actress for THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA is even more impressive than her nomination for MUSIC OF THE HEART. That movie at least seemed more Oscar bait-y (teacher inspiring poor kids) and had Harvey Weinstein behind it.

Streep's nomination for THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA is what makes me convinced that not only will she get nominated for JULIE AND JULIA, but if she continues on this resurgent course in her career she will probably end up having earned 20 Oscar nominations in her lifetime.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1253897896

[OscarGuy]

Just an FYI, my first updated list of predictions since June (though I've been updating my personal list many times since then), is finally up. You can click the link in the "OscarGuy's Latest Updates:" section above, or click the link here:

http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/82nd/Hopefuls.html

[OscarGuy]

Well, let me clarify. She WAS on my list, the one I last updated in June. The reason she was there was because I was having a serious problem coming up with any other potential nominees. However, in the three months since, I'e seen other names mentioned and seen more about end-of-year films that I didn't know about at the beginning of the year and my list looks different now.

Only two of the five performances are still on my list Saoirse Ronan and Hilary Swank. Helen Mirren is there but for a different vehicle and the remaining two spots are now taken by Vera Farmiga and Annette Bening. So, I've found other, better-chance contenders than Streep at this point. (And the list is sitting in my inbox waiting to be posted, I just have to get to it (tonight) hopefully.

But, really, my problem is that while you haven't used the Lock word, you've been overly forceful on the idea that she will be nominated, as have others here, and I'm urging caution.

But, the point you made was if she could get nominated for Music of the Heart, she could get nominated for anything, at which point I listed several films in which she gave performances that, on paper, seemed like surefire Oscar contenders or vehicles for her nomination, but were ultimately looked over despite recognition at the Globes and other precursors (Manchurian, The Hours and Mamma Mia specifically). So, the observation was that there are no guarantees for Meryl. Devil Wears Prada was a guarantee. We ALL saw it long before the Oscars. But not all of us are seeing the Julie & Julia trend. So, you can say that it's much like that film, but it's really not in that it doesn't scream Oscar or critical attention away Prada did.

[rolotomasi99]

And I'm saying don't always count on Meryl Streep, just because she's gotten nominated a lot recently, Music of the Heart was 10 years ago. Streep didn't get nominated for The Hours, The Manchurian Candidate, A Prairie Home Companion, Evening, Rendition or Lions for Lambs. And of those, the last three are the only ones she didn't receive praise for.

Other than THE HOURS, none of those performances you mentioned were nomination worthy. I have never seen Streep give a bad performance, but that does not mean all of her performances deserve an Oscar nomination.

Plus, the she was nominated for an Oscar in the same year as two of the movies you mentioned (THE HOURS and A PRARIE HOME COMPANION), just not for those performances.

I am very confused about what you are even saying OscarGuy. You do predict she will be nominated, but you do not want me to sound to sure about it. It is not like I used the taboo word "lock." The L-word is basically the Oscar equivalent of saying "good luck" to someone doing live theatre.

I just think she is at the top of the heap out of all other actors at this point in any of the four acting categories. She is no where near a word-that-must-never-be-used, but she definitely has the best outlook for a nomination out of every other name mentioned here or anywhere else. I am not trying to jinx her, just stating what seems pretty obvious.

[Big Magilla]

I think Streep is a given at the Globes and Satellites where they break out drama and comedy. Beyond that my crystal ball is still unfocused, but what's the skinny on her other comedy this year, It's Complicated? Could she be nominated for that instead? Could the two cancel one another out?

[OscarGuy]

And I'm saying don't always count on Meryl Streep, just because she's gotten nominated a lot recently, Music of the Heart was 10 years ago. Streep didn't get nominated for The Hours, The Manchurian Candidate, A Prairie Home Companion, Evening, Rendition or Lions for Lambs. And of those, the last three are the only ones she didn't receive praise for.

And since Music of the Heart, her only nominations have come in films like Adaptation, The Devil Wears Prada and Doubt. These aren't anything like Music of the Heart. And let me stress again, I'm not saying she won't be nominated, she's on my short list. I'm saying let's not put all your eggs into one basket on this one until we see what's going on in the Critics derbies, after all, unlike Music of the Heart, Adaptation, evil Wears Prada and Doubt earned her several precursor awards. If she doesn't get any for Julie and Julia, then I'm not saying she won't get nominated, but her chances diminish a bit.

And, I'll say it again and again, I'm not saying she's not getting nominated. I'm saying it's too early to count on her getting one, especially as vociferously as everyone seems to be doing here.

[rolotomasi99]

I think what he means is that it doesn't seem to be talked about heavily in the media or elsewhere. It may have done well at the box office, but The Devil Wears Prada had a certain mystique about it. I've heard virtually no one talk about Julie and Julia, but I heard plenty of people discussing The Devil Wears Prada...

But, while Mamma Mia wasn't a critical success, it was a box office hit and had lots of people talking, but did not result in a Streep nomination. I think we have to take her performances with a grain of salt. For me, I just want to see how many strong performances come out of the fall.

Well, I am not sure what your friends were saying, but other than Streep's performance I did not hear much talk about THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA. The only ancillary effect that movie had on our culture is to raise the profile of Anna Wintour in some circles, but she certainly did not become a household name.

JULIE AND JULIA on the other hand has brought Julia Child to the mainstream once again. Certainly I knew who she was before this film, but most people under the age of 30 had never heard of her. Now they know her life-story!

Child's book, Mastering The Art Of French Cooking, is on the best seller list 50 years after it was first published. Amazon and Barnes & Noble sold out of all their copies right after the movie was released, and an additional 75,000 copies of the book have been ordered to be published to fill the demand.

The same cannot be said for Julie Powell's book. She has only seen a fraction of the residual success from this movie that the deceased Child has enjoyed. This movie is a success thanks to Meryl Streep, and it is a good performance. If she can be nominated for a less than stellar performance like MUSIC OF THE HEART than she can definitely be nominated for something as good as this.

As for MAMMA MIA, that movie was more than just not a critical success. Everyone had good things to say about Streep, but some critics actually loathed that movie. Yet Streep did manage an Oscar nomination that year (and even came closer to a win than she has in years), but it was for her far superior dramatic performance in DOUBT.

Is there some other Streep performance this year that you think will overshadow JULIE AND JULIA? Again, I say never bet against Streep.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1253805253

[OscarGuy]

Jeff Wells dismissing Up because it's animated is ludicrous. We're talking Top 10 here, not the usual Top 5...

[Big Magilla]

I'm surprised no one has ye commented on Jeff Wells' put-down of the Awards Daily poll as to what teh ten Best Picture nominees will be and why.

Here's his original post:

Ryan Adams' Best Picture poll on Awards Daily asks readers to choose 10 likely finalists among some 55 or 56 suggestions. The ten I've chosen (listed alphabetically) are Bright Star, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Invictus, Nine, Precious, A Serious Man, The Tree of Life, Up In The Air and Where The Wild Things Are. (I obviously haven't seen Malick's Tree but...well, you know. And haven't I read two men-weeping stories about Wild Things? Or just one?)

Here's why Adams' other suggestions don't rate, with due respect: Amelia (unseen but said by an insider to simply not quite cut it in terms of award-season chops), Antichrist (be serious!), Avatar (Delgo/Ferngully, furry ballerina, space Marines), Away We Go (too nice, modest, low-key), The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans (joke suggestion), Broken Embraces (very fine Almodovar, but obviously in the foreign language category), City of Life and Death (foreign language), Coco Before Chanel (allegedly too middlebrow boilerplate), Coraline (animated), The Cove (documentary), Creation (forget it), District 9 (too dusty sci-fi, too cultish, too many empty cat-food cans), Everybody's Fine (unseen but beware of this),
(500) Days of Summer (intriguing film but won't make the cut), Food, Inc. (doc), Funny People (a very strong contender & a totally honorable film, but perceived as an under-performer), Get Low (haven't seen it), Goodbye Solo (forget it), Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (be serious), The Informant! (jaunty and quite good in some respects, but lacks that thematic award-season dimensionality), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (not in the game), Inglourious Basterds (baseball bat beating! fresh cow's milk! foot-fetish shots!), In the Loop (superb satire but but lacks thematic depth and scope), Julie & Julia (nice movie, not in the game), The Last Station (allegedly very straghtforward & middlebrow...but where's the distributor?), Lebanon (foreign language), The Lovely Bones (haven't seen it but always be fearful of Jackson), The Men Who Stare at Goats (clever, amusing, not award quality), Moon (overpraised), 9 (nope), Ondine (not by my yardstck), Ponyo (who?), The Princess and the Frog (be serious), The Prophet (superb but foreign language), Public Enemies (admirable wth killre finale, but not as popular as it needs to be), The Road (good but not good enough), Seraphine (nope), Sherlock Holmes (another joke suggestion), A Single Man (sublime film in certain respects, could qualify but Gay-O-Vision factor may inhibit), Sin Nombre (masterful, certainly among the best of the year, but isn't it Spanish speaking?), Star Trek (not that kind of film), Summer Hours (don't know it), Tetro (best cinematography?), Up (animated), The White Ribbon (foreign language), Within the Whirlwind (Siberian gulag love story..what?).

[OscarGuy]

It's not your traditional biopic, though. But, you guys can do whatever you want. She's not in my list of nominees, but she is on my longlist of contenders, so I don't entirely discredit her chances. I just don't think the support is there for her nomination as yet.

[Zahveed]

I agree on Matt Damon and maybe throw adapted screenplay as a possibility. I don't believe anything else in the film is strong enough though.

Score? The musical branch is notoriously clique-y and it is Hamlisch.

Oh, yes, the score. How could I forget that? It's about as nutty and asinine as the voice overs. Without those two factors, The Informant would only be half of what it is.

[Okri]

I think the fact is that Mamma Mia was largely dismissed despite it's box office, whereas Julie and Julia had solid (nothing spectacular, mind you) reviews. Plus it's a biopic. Plus she has a silly romantic comedy coming up, not a serious Oscar-baiting entry. Following BJ's bird-in-the-hand rule, it makes sense.

[OscarGuy]

I think what he means is that it doesn't seem to be talked about heavily in the media or elsewhere. It may have done well at the box office, but The Devil Wears Prada had a certain mystique about it. I've heard virtually no one talk about Julie and Julia, but I heard plenty of people discussing The Devil Wears Prada...

But, while Mamma Mia wasn't a critical success, it was a box office hit and had lots of people talking, but did not result in a Streep nomination. I think we have to take her performances with a grain of salt. For me, I just want to see how many strong performances come out of the fall.