Box Office - 2007 will be a record year

[Sabin]

In its fourth week with a take of $12 million, 'Transformers' has amassed $285 million and the question is how much more can it take in before it's over. We've got 'The Bourne Ultimatum' and 'Rush Hour 3' coming up in the next couple weeks, so I have to believe that takes some away from 'Transformers' coming heft.

'Spider-Man 3' stands at $335, 'Shrek 3' at $318' and 'Pirates 3' at $306. It'll likely take down 'Pirates' but at this point, 'Shrek 3' might be pushing it. 'Transformers' claiming the title of Biggest Movie of the Summer seems a little out of the question at this point though. It does not have $60 million left in it.

Likewise with $17 million, 'Harry Potter 5' lost almost 50% this past weekend and while this can be attributed to 'The Simpsons' coming out and it will likely continue to hang out throughout the summer. But with $242 million, it doesn't seem likely to pass $300 million, and if it does, not by much.

'Ratatouille' stands at $180, falling less than 40% every week, and should have little problem clearing $200 million. 'Ratatouille' will make a "Told You So!" $200.

[Franz Ferdinand]

The Simpsons will see a gigantic chunk of their weekend money from Friday; it won't go higher than $80M at best.
People seem to be quite divided by Harry Potter 5: in my opinion, it was the most satisfactory movie adaptation, but it won't make $300M anymore. Nearly everyone who has seen this that I know either loved it or disliked it, I haven't seen middle ground.

[OscarGuy]

Rolo, it's not a common perception that this film was the second best.

I, for one, think it's just only slightly better than Sorcerer's Stone which is the worst of the series so far (not bad, but not the best).

And if I have that opinion, I'll bet there are plenty of others who would agree.

[rolotomasi99]

looks like it is going to be a $90 million opening weekend for THE SIMPSONS. i am so upset that RATATOUILLE is struggling to even clear $200 million. it is such a brilliant film.

THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX will probably have a $15 million weekend. it will most likely pass $300 million (as will TRANSFORMERS), but my prediction of it being the number one film of the year (or even the series) seems less and less likely. confusing since it is second to only THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN in quality of all the films.

whenever people complain critics are out of touch with the taste of mainstream audiences, i always want to shout back "maybe mainstream audiences are just stupid!!!!!"

[OscarGuy]

Order of the Phoenix's week numbers are quite a bit better than all the previous runs, so apparently the kids are done reading the books and back to watching the movies. The big question will be the weekend and how it plays in comparison.

[criddic3]

The one thing about Harry Potter is that with the release of the book, not everyone went to the movie this weekend. So, it is possible for the movie to make it to $300 million if people decided to wait or if those who saw it make the trip again.

[Franz Ferdinand]

I was wrong. Transformers is now a lock for $300M, and has a decent chance at taking over Spider-Man 3's rank for top of the year. It fell only 43% this past weekend ($20.5M) for a running total of $263M - great numbers for its fourth weekend already. Unless Phoenix recovers and stabilizes in the coming weeks, it will top out somewhere near $275-285M.

[Franz Ferdinand]

So far, 'I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry' and 'Harry Potter 5' are a hundred thousand dollars apart with $34 million a piece, with 'Hairspray' at $30 million.

Is this the strongest year for blockbusters in years? It's looking like 'Harry Potter 5', 'Pirates 3', 'Shrek 3', 'Spider-Man 3', and 'Transformers' are all going to pass the $300 million mark, and even the summer's big "disaster" 'Evan Almighty' is going to cross $100 million. Is this unprecedented?

The Threequels have all passed $300M, which compares favorably to the last few years in box office lore:
2006: 1 (Dead Man's Chest, $423M)
2005: 1 (Star Wars Episode 3, $380M)
2004: 3 (Shrek 2, $441M; Spider-Man 2, $373M; Passion, $370M)
2003: 3 (Return of the King, $377M; Finding Nemo, $339M; POTC, $305M)
2002: 3 (Spider-Man, $403M; Two Towers, $340M; Attack of the Clones, $302M)
2001: 2 (Harry Potter, $317M; Fellowship, $313M)

There is already 3 movies over the threshold - although Phoenix and Transformers are questionable to reach it at best. Plus there are probably a couple of holiday releases that might come close, right?

[Franz Ferdinand]

OR the pot-heads rush out after finishing the book by Saturday night and watch the movie, their final Potter fix until the next movie comes out in 18 months.

I'm not tapped into this whole Harry Potter ethos so I don't know, but isn't there an incredible amount of masturbation being performed right now given the movie's release and the book's publication?

It's definitely one of the best word-of-mouth cross-promotions done in a long time. The Harry Potter Midnight Party held yesterday at every Chapters/Indigo bookstore in Calgary (including the one I attended) was packed to the brim with people: kids, teens and their parents. I overheard a few of them talking about how they just arrived from watching the movie to wait in line for the book. However the movie holds up in its second weekend (looks like a drop of maybe 55%), JK Rowling is laughing all the way to the bank. Again.

[Sabin]

So far, 'I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry' and 'Harry Potter 5' are a hundred thousand dollars apart with $34 million a piece, with 'Hairspray' at $30 million.

Is this the strongest year for blockbusters in years? It's looking like 'Harry Potter 5', 'Pirates 3', 'Shrek 3', 'Spider-Man 3', and 'Transformers' are all going to pass the $300 million mark, and even the summer's big "disaster" 'Evan Almighty' is going to cross $100 million. Is this unprecedented?

[Damien]

OR the pot-heads rush out after finishing the book by Saturday night and watch the movie, their final Potter fix until the next movie comes out in 18 months.

I'm not tapped into this whole Harry Potter ethos so I don't know, but isn't there an incredible amount of masturbation being performed right now given the movie's release and the book's publication?

[Franz Ferdinand]

OR the pot-heads rush out after finishing the book by Saturday night and watch the movie, their final Potter fix until the next movie comes out in 18 months.

[Sonic Youth]

I'd imagine Phoenix's box office is going to take a sharp drop. All the Pot-heads are going to stay at home this weekend reading the final installment.

[anonymous1980]

I'm really sort of puzzled how a movie's success is measured on whether or not it broke any box-office records or how fast it makes money on the opening weekend. I read somewhere during the time of The Incredibles, Brad Bird remarked: "If my movie made $1 less than Finding Nemo, it would be considered a disappointment."

It's very true with the way people are writing about Ratatouille's box-office.

[Sabin]

I hate that we have to hold the box office success of 'Ratatouille' up to that of 'Cars'. On the one hand, 'Cars' had a far weaker lineup to contend with, but on the other hand word of mouth was far weaker for that film than with 'Ratatouille' which I can honestly say I don't know a damn person who hasn't loved the thing. I swear to God, the 'Cars'/'Ratatouille'-dichotomy is as fishy, divisive, and problematic as the '00 election.

I choose to chalk the problem up to the fact that 'Cars' had weeks of weaker competition. It continued to pull in over $30 million a week until the 4th of July in its fourth week of release.

In 17 days of release, 'Ratatouille' has amassed $143 million.
In three weeks, 'Cars' bolstered a $156 million total. This is not so far off.

'Ratatouille' will continue to do well throughout the summer, taking in fairly strong weekday numbers and will finish at around $200-$215 million.

To wit: 'Cars' launched at the fizzled second & third weekends of 'The Break-Up' and 'X-Men 3', and continued with such modest hits, and relative and non-relative disappointments as 'Nacho Libre', 'The Fast & The Furious 3', 'The Lake House', 'Garfield 2', and 'Click', and THEN at least three weeks after its release, it faced off against 'Superman', 'Pirates', and 'The Devil Wears Prada'.

'Ratatouille' does not have it so easy and as far as I'm concerned has been performing almost as well as could be imagined for such a sweet, unassuming little thing.