Our Individual Elections

[The Original BJ]

I didn't vote for Arnold, but I couldn't stand his opponent either. It is a true testament to the California Democrats' incompetence that even in this solid blue state they couldn't come up with a candidate who could even remotely challenge the governor. I was one of the 2% who voted Green in this race.

[Big Magilla]

It's an outstanding acheivement, what the GOP has done. It took 50 years for the Democrats to be thrown out of office. For the Republicans, it only took a dozen. Well played, Repubs. Well played.

But have they really learned a lesson, will they actually give up? The fact that George W.'s first call this morning was to Nancy Pelosi is a good sign, but it's only half the battle. I won't consider the American electorate vindicated until the Virginia and Montana senate races are declared in the Dems' favor. Then we can sit back and see how long it will take them to screw things up so bad that people start voting for the faux religious nuts again.

I voted for Arnold. I couldn't stand his meely mothed opponent. Had the primary gone to the other guy I would probably have voted Democratic, but I just couldn't stand that dude. In the end all they could really say bad about Arnold was that he supported Bush in 2004 and played his "vote for George W. Bush" convention sound byte over and over.

I also voted against two of the stupidest of the many annual propositions we have. They thankfully lost, though they had been ahead in the polls, one of them heavily supported in TV ads by Bill Clinton and Al Gore that was ostensibly about the environment but really did nothing but set up an unwieldy beauracy with no accountability. The other was yet another tax on cigarettes, which did nothing to stop smoking other than hope fewer people will buy cigarettes because the cost would be so prohibitive.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1163035247

[Sonic Youth]

DIE MAKAKAWITZ, DIE!!

For once, "historic election" is the correct term. George Bush's legacy is now history. The 1994 Republican Revolution is now history.

George W. Bush entered office filled with ethics, integrity and principles (or so it was claimed). He has now broken faith with the United States of America. That's some accomplishment. All Clinton did was break faith with his spouse. (Maybe Bush has, too, and we just don't know.) Bush entered office with hardly any interest or knowledge in foreign affairs. He was handed a legacy on a platter and he lost his way. The election's message is clear: Enough is enough. Enough with the unnecessary foreign wars, enough with the government expanding more elephantine (pun intended) than a Democrat could only dream, enough with the showboating. Enough with the unsustainable spending that will have repurcussions for future generations. Enough with the contempt we've subjected ourselves to in the eyes of the rest of the world that will have long-lasting ramifications.

It's an outstanding acheivement, what the GOP has done. It took 50 years for the Democrats to be thrown out of office. For the Republicans, it only took a dozen. Well played, Repubs. Well played.

[OscarGuy]

I can finally go to bed! Claire WON!!!! I'm so excited.

The other great thing is that it looks like our Min. Wage increase has passed overwhelmingly and Stem Cell Research will now be allowed to benefit Missourians (though by a very tight margin).

[criddic3]

Looks like you guys have plenty to jump for joy over, as the House is now solidly Democratic and the Senate could well go into their column as well. It may all come down to Virginia, where Allen and Webb are incredibly close.

I was sad to see Maryland a loss for Michael Steele. He has refused to concede, waiting for other votes to come in.

You may be happy to note that I begrudgingly voted for Senator Clinton. I did not vote for her the last time, when she ran against Rick Lazio.

2008 looks interesting.

The major thing about this election is that with such a small lead, Democrats will have to work with Republicans and vice versa.

[OscarGuy]

It's 11:47p here and the counting is still ongoing. I keep looking through the counties and I just noticed one consistent thing the race for this year's senatorial bid is far more democratic than that of two years ago. I'm becoming more optomistic as the night drags on that Missouri could fall into the Dems column.

[Damien]

We still have the old fashioned lever machines in New York. I voted a straight Green Party Ticket, except I voted for Congressman Jerry Nadler (but on the Working Families, not the Democratic line; the Greens didn't run a candidate in this race). Nadler, whose district includes Ground Zero, is, happily, one of the most liberal members of Congress, which is most appropriate for the representative from the west side of Manhattan.

The only time I ever voted with any method other than a lever was in the year I lived in Los Angeles (1982). It threw me for a loop to see an electronic punch card (it looked like a carnival punch card game), but still it was very cool to be able to vote for Gore Vidal.

[OscarGuy]

Oddly enough, our county used to use the punch card system (which I sadly miss) but it allowed for straight party voting. We switched to a new electronic system this year that works like scantron. you draw a line from one end of the arrow to the other end completing the arrow next to your choice. Then, feed it through the machine.

The reason I love this is that it's tangible proof of what I voted for coming through the other side of the machine.

Voter turnout here was unbelievably high for a mid-term. I'm almost certain the turnout was higher than the last presidential election but I may be misremembering.

There are only TWO reasons voting like this would be expected. 1) Because our area's highly religious, it was a strong vote against the stem cell ballot measure.
2) Democrats are turning out to eject Talent.

[Penelope]

I voted early, a straight Dem ticket; Sonic, I've never seen that option on an electronic voting device, and I don't care for it, either.

[dws1982]

Alabama has the most boring elections imaginable. The governor's race is a blowout--although I voted for the loser--and the US House race is an incumbent running unopposed. No Senate races, although I can't wait until 2008 when I can vote against Jeff Sessions--one of the most loathsome Senators in the entire US Senate.

At least we don't have voting problems--in my area we still have those ballots where you connect the arrows with a marker.

[Sonic Youth]

I voted as a Pennsylvanian for the first time this morning. The polling place was at a private airport(!) and I had go over a very narrow and VERY hilly road to get there. My wife has the car, and I tried to bike it but it was one hill too many, so I walked part of the way. Coming back was a breeze - all downhill! The room was very nice and homey, with a fire in a fireplace and brownies, pretzels and carrotsticks offered as snacks. The monitors were lovely... a first!

And I used an electronic voting machine for the very first time. (It was not a Diebold.) I was surprised at how simple it was to use. However, the machines do not give receipts of who I voted for, which doesn't go over well for me. I miss the old fashioned lever machines, which felt far more tangible, and as we can clearly see is less prone to error, tampering and general eff-ups. I think I'll use early voting methods from now on. I much prefer paper ballots.

But the voting machine asked a question I VERY strongly take issue with, with was:

"Click here if you wish to vote a straight party line:

1. _ All Democrat.
2. _ All Republican"

I'm sure most voters vote by straight party line. I've done it in the past, and I did it this year. But I'm very much against voting machines ENCOURAGING straight party line voting. No matter what we think of an opposing party as a whole, this races should be looked upon individually. This sort of question encourages laziness and narrow-mindedness. Essentially I did vote for a straight party line. But I left that question blank. And I think I'll write a letter to the election comittee about this.

Oh, one more prediction. Whether the Democrats do only moderately well or EXTREMELY well, Criddic will find a way to say what a disappointing evening it was for the Democrats. If the Democrats win 40 seats in the House, Criddic will say, "Some were predicting the Dems would win 50 seats, so they didn't do as well as expected."

[Sonic Youth]

Here we go again...

Voting problems across country
Complaints in Fla., Ind., Ohio, Miss. as workers tangle with new machines
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 3:16 p.m. ET Nov 7, 2006

WASHINGTON - Programming errors and inexperience dealing with electronic voting machines frustrated poll workers in hundreds of precincts early Tuesday, delaying voters in Indiana, Ohio, Miss. and Florida and leaving some with little choice but to use paper ballots instead.

In Cleveland, voters rolled their eyes as election workers fumbled with new touchscreen machines that they couldn’t get to start properly until about 10 minutes after polls opened.

“We got five machines — one of them’s got to work,” said Willette Scullank, a troubleshooter from the Cuyahoga County, Ohio, elections board.

In Mississippi's Hancock County, where voters were heading to the polls for the first time since it was clobbered by Hurricane Katrina, MSNBC found Pamela Metzler, circuit clerk for Hancock County, Miss., fuming.

“The equipment is just over the top for the average poll worker,” she fumed. “Hell, it’s over the top for me.”

Metzler said the Diebold touch-screen machines were “shoved down our throats” by Secretary of State Eric Clark as part of a deal that brought 77 of Mississippi’s 82 counties into compliance with the Help America Vote Act of 2002. Tuesday’s general election was the first big test of the system.

Metzler said the equipment problems were keeping some county residents from casting their ballots on their first attempt.

David Blount, communications director for Secretary of State Clark, said it was too early to tell how voting was going across the state’s 2,200 precincts where 650,000 voters, about a 30 percent turnout, were expected Tuesday.

In Indiana’s Marion County, about 175 of 914 precincts turned to paper because poll workers didn’t know how to run the machines, said Marion County Clerk Doris Ann Sadler. She said it could take most of the day to fix all of the machine-related issues.

Election officials in Delaware County, Ind., planned to seek a court order to extend voting after an apparent computer error prevented voters from casting ballots in 75 precincts there. County Clerk Karen Wenger said the cards that activate the machines were programmed incorrectly.

“We are working with precincts one by one over the telephone to get the problem fixed,” she said.

New machines cause headaches

At the Election Protection Coalition phone bank in Washington, D.C., where operators are fielding calls from voters complaining about poll troubles, electronic voting machine expert Matt Zimmerman said callers are complaining about the situation in Indiana.

Such glitches were not unexpected, he said.

"You have a lot of new machines in a lot of places, including in Indiana. Some people just don't know what they are doing," said Zimmerman, a lawyer for the Electronic Frontier Foundation who is working at the Election Protection Coalition phone bank.

"They may not have delivered the right equipment, or they couldn't turn the stuff on, or it may be they didn't have the poll workers properly trained. So you end up with situations like this," Zimmerman said.

Election watchdogs had worried about polling problems even before the voting began.

“This is largely what I expected,” said Doug Chapin, director of Electionline.org, a nonpartisan group that tracks voting changes. “With as much change as we had, expecting things to go absolutely smoothly at the beginning of the day is too optimistic.”

A precinct in Orange Park, Fla. turned to paper ballots because of machine problems. Voting was delayed for 30 minutes or more at some Broward County precincts, where electronic ballots were mixed up and, in one case, a poll worker unintentionally wiped the electronic ballot activators.

‘People seem to be very confused'

In Illinois, some voters found the new equipment cumbersome.

“People seem to be very confused about how to use the new system,” said Bryan Blank, a 33-year-old librarian from Oak Park, Ill. “There was some early morning disarray.”

But voting equipment companies said they hadn’t seen anything beyond the norm and blamed the problems largely on human error.

“Any time there’s more exposure to equipment, there are questions about setting up the equipment and things like that,” said Ken Fields, a spokesman for Election Systems & Software Inc. “Overall, things are going very well.”

Some voters even liked the new ballots.

“It was much clearer on what you were voting for and you made sure you absolutely were voting for what you wanted to vote for,” said Cathy Schaefer, 59, of Cincinnati.

Other problems had nothing to do with machines.

In Washington State, where heavy rain has caused flooding prompted the governor to declare a state of emergency in 18 counties. Because of road closures, some people were unable to get to their polling places. State officials instructed voters who were having trouble to go to any polling place they could reach, and obtain a provisional ballot.

A location in Columbus, Ohio, opened a few minutes late because of a break-in at the school where the precinct is located.

Although turnout generally is lower in midterm elections, this year was the line for many of the election changes enacted in the wake of the Florida balloting chaos of 2000. The 2002 Help America Vote Act required or helped states to replace outdated voting equipment, establish voter registration databases, require better voter identification and provide provisional ballots if something goes wrong.

High stakes

Control of Congress is also at stake this year, and because individual congressional races are generally decided by fewer votes than presidential contests, any problems at the polls are more likely to affect the outcome.

According to Election Data Services, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm, 32 percent of registered voters were using equipment added since the 2004 elections.

Nearly half of all voters were using optical-scan systems that ask them to fill in blanks, with ballots then fed into a computer. Thirty-eight percent were casting votes on touchscreen machines that have been criticized as susceptible to s.

Just getting to the right polling place with all the right identification posed a challenge for some voters.

Many states established voter registration databases for the first time, and many found problems as they tried to match drivers’ license and Social Security data with the voter rolls. Someone may have a middle initial or use “Jr.” on one list but not the other, and data entry errors also occur.

New requirements in some states

Although not required by federal law, some states passed new voter identification requirements, some calling for a government-issued photo ID rather than just a utility bill.

Courts have struck down ID requirements in several states, but Missouri’s chief elections official, Robin Carnahan, said she was still asked three times to show a photo ID, despite a court ruling striking the requirement down there.

Some New Mexico voters complained they had received phone calls giving them incorrect information about where to vote.

In one of the worst fiascoes, Maryland election officials forgot to send the cards primary voters needed to activate electronic machines at their polling places, and some voters had to cast provisional ballots on scraps of paper.

Baltimore County election director Jacqueline McDaniel said the poll workers had a few problems on Tuesday — one left part of the equipment in his car; another was looking in the wrong place for the electronic poll books.

Several Florida counties stocked up ahead of the election with extra voting machines, paper ballots and poll workers on standby. Apart from the state’s infamous chads in 2000, Florida voters have struggled with poorly trained poll workers and precincts opening late or closing early.

Florida Secretary of State Sue Cobb said she didn’t expect serious problems Tuesday. The Justice Department was deploying poll watchers at dozens of potential trouble spots nationwide.

“History has shown that the machines are far more accurate than paper so we’re quite confident in it,” Cobb said. “There is absolutely no reason to believe that there will be any security issues, any going on.”

[Sonic Youth]

I have rehearsals tonight, darn it, and I won't be able to follow the coverage until after eleven. Have fun, guys.

Frankly, I don't think anyone is going to be happy with the results. The late Republican surge may affect some Democratic races. On the other hand, I suspect this surge came a week too late for the Repubs to fully benefit.

I'm too scared to make any more specific predictions, because today could be the one day I have the power to jinx.

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Disregard who the author is. This is an interesting article to follow:


JOHN FUND ON THE TRAIL

Following the Election Returns
An hour-by-hour guide to tonight's results.

Tuesday, November 7, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST

This year the networks say they are guarding their exit poll results as if they were crown jewels. The results will be delivered to a "quarantine room," access to which will be granted to only two staffers from each network and wire service, who must surrender all cell phones, BlackBerrys and similar devices before entering the room. Such precautions are designed to prevent preliminary results, often wrong in 2000 and 2004, from being posted on Web sites like the Drudge Report.

Only at 5 p.m. will the occupants of the quarantine room be allowed to reveal the exit polls to their bosses. The networks claim to have completely revamped their exit-poll methodology, which in 2004 had surveys in which the results, collected mostly by female graduate students, consistently favored Democrats. The changes will mean the networks will be slower to call the winners. That and the difficulty of adjusting for the large number of absentee ballots could mean a longer night than usual.

So how to make sense of things this election night? Don't feel obligated to listen to the endless analysis of the pundits (including me) on the networks. Consider turning down the TV to a whisper and either watching the crawl of actual returns on the bottom of the screen or monitoring them on the Internet at sites like RealClearPolitics.com.

Given that the longer election night might not suit everyone's bedtime, I've prepared an hour-by-hour guide to tonight's results to provide clues on how each major party is doing even if individual winners in races haven't been called. All times are Eastern. In a bow to tradition, we've listed states that went for George W. Bush two years ago in red and those that went for John Kerry in blue. The letters after state names indicate governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color (independents in black). For example, "California GS" indicates that the Golden State went for John Kerry in 2004 and has a governor's race with a Republican incumbent and a Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.

6 p.m.

Indiana S
Kentucky

Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.

In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.

Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms, but it hasn't voted Republican for president in nearly 20 years. If a she loses this time, it will an all-smiles night for Democrats. Similarly, Democrats hope that former Rep. Ken Lucas will topple freshman Republican Geoff Davis (Fourth District) in the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. But should Mr. Lucas win, look for him to give Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi heartburn. He has campaigned as a down-the-line conservative.

7 p.m.

Florida GS
Georgia G
New Hampshire G
South Carolina G
Vermont GS
Virginia S

At 7 p.m. we begin to get a feel for how the Senate is going. Virginia's race pits GOP incumbent George Allen against Democrat Jim Webb. This will go down to the wire. The state is still slightly Republican; the GOP has won the past three Senate races, and George W. Bush carried it, but more liberal northern Virginia now casts a third of the state's votes. If Mr. Allen loses, look the Democrats have a real chance at taking Senate control. It will also be evidence that the GOP stronghold in the South can be breached by a moderate Democrat like Mr. Webb.

In South Carolina and Florida, Gov. Mark Sanford and state Attorney General Charlie Crist are favored to keep both statehouses in the GOP column. If either loses, it will be a disastrous night for Republicans. Florida's Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat, will easily beat Rep. Katherine Harris. (Polls stay open one more hour in the western part of the Florida Panhandle.)

Also in Florida, a Republican gerrymander, by creating more GOP districts that are less overwhelmingly Republican, may result in Democratic House gains. Watch the seat of GOP Rep. Clay Shaw (22nd District), a 26-year veteran from Fort Lauderdale. While he is popular with constituents, they voted 52% for John Kerry. Should he lose, it will mean that anger at the GOP is great enough that even revered veterans will be going down tonight. Another endangered GOP seat is Ms. Harris's (13th District), in Sarasota. GOP candidate Vern Buchanan has been buffeted by charges that his companies moved offshore to avoid paying U.S. taxes. The GOP also is in danger of losing Mark Foley's seat (16th District). Mr. Foley's name still appears on the ballot, but if he outpolls Democrat Tim Mahoney, the seat will go to GOP nominee Joe Negron.

Georgia's Gov. Sonny Perdue, the state's first GOP governor since Reconstruction, is expected to win. The state's GOP is the beneficiary of a new congressional district map, which gives them a chance at ousting two Democratic incumbents, Jim Marshall of Macon (Third District) and John Barrow of Athens (12th). Both men face former GOP congressmen who are well known to area voters.

A rare GOP bright spot in the Northeast will be Vermont's Gov. Jim Douglas, who is expected to buck a liberal, anti-Bush tide in his state. But Vermont is expected to elevate to the Senate Rep. Bernie Sanders, an independent and self-styled socialist, to replace fellow independent Jim Jeffords.

GOP strategists are nervously watching normally Republican neighboring New Hampshire where six-term incumbent Rep. Charles Bass (Second District) is in danger of losing to the same Democrat who won only 38% against him two years ago. Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, should easily hold the statehouse.


7:30 p.m.

North Carolina
Ohio GS
West Virginia S

Ohio is expected to be a meltdown state for Republicans as the twin burdens of state-level corruption by the GOP machine and a slow industrial jobs picture boost Democratic chances. It would be a minor miracle if either GOP gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell or Sen. Mike DeWine were to win.

The real action is in the House. Democrats are targeting five GOP seats. They are favored to win over Rep. Deborah Pryce (15th District), a member of the House GOP leadership who made the mistake of telling reporters earlier this year that then-Rep. Mark Foley was one of her best friends. Similarly, state Sen. Joy Padgett is trailing her Democratic opponent, Zack Space, in the seat that has been vacated by the disgraced Bob Ney (18th District). GOP incumbents Steve Chabot (First District), Jean Schmidt (Second) and Pat Tiberi (12th) are expected to survive narrowly, but if any one of them loses, it's a sign there's a Democratic blowout.

North Carolina Democrats are expecting to unseat Rep. Charles Taylor (11th District) in the western mountain House seat he's held for 16 years. Their candidate is former football hero Heath Shuler, an evangelical Christian who opposes abortion and gun control. If Democrats lose in this district with that kind of dream candidate, the sound you hear will be Rahm Emanuel, the Democratic Congressional Campaign chieftain, pounding the table in anger.

West Virginia rarely elects Republicans; Shelley Moore Capito (Second District) is only the second Republican to represent the state's Second District in 30 years, but she is favored to win. So is Democrat Alan Mollahan (First District), an ethically challenged Democrat who would lose to a Republican in any year but this one. Expect easy victory for pork-barrel king Sen. Robert Byrd, who turns 89 Nov. 20 and who arrived in Congress during the last weeks of the Truman administration.

8 p.m.

Alabama G
Connecticut GS
Delaware S
Illinois G
Kansas G
Maine GS
Maryland GS
Massachusetts GS
Michigan GS
Mississippi S
Missouri S
New Jersey S
North Dakota S
Oklahoma G
Pennsylvania GS
Tennessee GS
Texas GS

Republican hopes of holding the Senate majority will be greatly enhanced if they can hold a pair of Senate seats, in Missouri and Tennessee.

Missouri is a traditional bellwether; the only 20th-century candidate to win the presidency without carrying the Show Me State was Eisenhower in 1956. Republican Jim Talent, a narrow winner in a 2002 special election, is tied with state auditor Claire McCaskill. If Ms. McCaskill wins narrowly, look for Republicans to trumpet allegations of voter fraud and irregularities based on last week's arrest of four organizers from the liberal group Acorn on charges of voter registration fraud.

Tennessee's Senate seat should stay in Republican hands, despite an October Democratic surge. Bob Corker has opened up a lead over Rep. Harold Ford. Should Mr. Ford upset Mr. Corker and become the first black senator to be elected from a Southern state, he will instantly become a Barack Obama-like superstar--and a Democratic takeover of the Senate will be more likely than not. Tennessee's Democratic governor, Phil Bredesen, should easily win re-election.

Republicans' best chances for Senate pickups are in Maryland, New Jersey and Michigan--though the GOP candidate is an underdog in each race.

Maryland features a Democratic Party that can't quite close the sale for its candidates in a strongly liberal state. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, who is black may yet ride his support among suburban black voters to victory over bland Democrat Rep. Ben Cardin. Meanwhile, GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich is tied with his Democratic challenger, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley.

New Jersey pits scandal-tarred Sen. Bob Menendez, whom Gov. Jon Corzine appointed to fill his own former seat, against Tom Kean Jr., the son of a popular former GOP governor. Mr. Menendez leads, but Mr. Kean may yet pull off an upset.

In Michigan, Sen. Debbie Stabenow has long been considered vulnerable to Republican Michael Bouchard, the sheriff of populous Oakland County outside Detroit. But Ms. Stabenow has solid union support and has kept a lead just out of reach of Mr. Bouchard and the margin of error. Put this down as a likely lost GOP opportunity, with the slightest chance of an upset still remaining. Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat, is favored against challenger Dick DeVos, though an upset is possible here too.

Connecticut features an unusual Senate race between two Democrats. Sen. Joe Lieberman is seeking re-election as an independent after losing the August primary to Ned Lamont, champion of the liberal-left "netroots." Mr. Lieberman has run well ahead in the polls, and a Lamont victory among the general electorate would be a much more shocking upset than his triumph in a closed primary.

Mr. Lieberman's strength as an independent may help three struggling GOP House incumbents: Rob Simmons (Second District), Chris Shays (Fourth) and Nancy Johnson (Fifth). Should Republicans lose two or three of those seats, it may be the death knell of the tradition of moderate Republicanism that once dominated the Northeast. Connecticut's Republican governor, Jodi Rell, should be re-elected easily.

Pennsylvania features what should have been a classic Senate race between a well-known GOP incumbent, Rick Santorum, and Bob Casey, the son of a popular late Democratic governor. But the race fizzled a bit after the tongue-tied Mr. Casey dodged most debates and performed adequately in those he did attend. Mr. Santorum who has remained an underdog for months, made a Churchillian speech charging that Mr. Casey is simply too inexperienced to be trusted to handle the terrorism issue. But if Mr. Santorum wins, it will likely be the upset of the night. Meanwhile, Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, is expected to prevail against onetime Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann.

In House races in the Keystone state we see the best example in the country of how a gerrymander can unravel in a bad year for the party in power. GOP strategists have already given up the seats of incumbents Don Sherwood (10th District) and Curt Weldon (Seventh), both of whom have been hit with negative publicity over personal scandals. Two other GOP incumbents, Jim Gerlach (Sixth District) and Mike Fitzpatrick (Eighth), are barely hanging on in their internal polls.

In Texas, the real battle will be over whether GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs can keep the seat of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in the Republican column. The district voted 65% for Mr. Bush, but he mechanics of a write-in vote may make it impossible for any candidate--especially one with three names--to defeat Democrat Nick Lampson. Gov. Rick Perry, a Republican, should win against a divided field.

Massachusetts will return to the political wasteland it normally is for GOP candidates. With the retirement of Mitt Romney as governor, Democrats are almost certain to elect Deval Patrick as their first governor in 20 years and once again to dominate state government completely.

In Illinois features two House showdowns in suburban Chicago. If Republicans lose the open seat of the retiring Henry Hyde (Sixth District), they will almost certainly suffer severe losses in other suburban strongholds around the country. Should they pull off a surprise and defeat freshman Democrat Melissa Bean (Eighth District), they have a real shot at keeping a GOP House majority.

In Kansas, if Rep. Jim Ryun, a Republican from Topeka (Second District), goes down, it will be a disaster for Republicans.

Expected to win easily are Govs. Bob Riley (R., Ala.), Rod Blagojevich (D., Ill.), Kathleen Sebelius (D., Kan.), John Baldacci (D., Maine) and Brad Henry (D., Okla.); and Sens. Tom Carper (D., Del.), Olympia Snowe (R., Maine), Ted Kennedy (D., Mass.), Trent Lott (R., Miss.), Kent Conrad (D., N.D.) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R., Texas).

8:30 p.m.

Arkansas G

Gov. Mike Huckabee has served ten years as the state's first GOP chief executive since the 1960s. He may have presidential ambitions, but in Little Rock he leaves behind a battered state party that has been divided over his efforts to raise taxes and boost spending. Former Rep. Asa Hutchison is likely to lose to Democrat Mike Beebe. Bill Clinton will be smiling Tuesday night as his party returns to the governor's mansion.


9 p.m.

Arizona GS
Colorado G
Louisiana
Minnesota GS
Nebraska GS
New Mexico GS
New York GS
Rhode Island GS
South Dakota G
Wisconsin GS
Wyoming GS

Two crucial Senate races are decided at this hour. In Rhode Island, conservatives who predicted that liberal Sen. Lincoln Chaffee couldn't survive the anti-incumbent tide will likely be proved right as former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse is set to make state's Congressional delegation all Democratic for the first time in thirty years. A late poll by Mason-Dixon puts Mr. Chafee one point ahead of his rival, but most observers still believe the Democratic undertow will just be too great--though Gov. Don Carcieri is likely to survive it.

Arizona pits incumbent Jon Kyl against Democrat Jim Pederson. Polls show Mr. Kyl ahead, but Democrats think they have a chance of knocking him off. The GOP must win this seat to retain Senate control.

In the House, Republicans should hold the rural district in northern Arizona now held by Rep. Rick Renzi (First District). In more trouble is GOP incumbent J.D. Hayworth (Fifth District), whose bombastic style hasn't played well with the Scottsdale sophisticates in his district. Should Mr. Hayworth lose it will be a sign of a major erosion of GOP support in the land of conservative saint Barry Goldwater. A likely Democratic pickup is the Eighth District, being vacated by Rep. Jim Kolbe. Republican nominee Randy Graf is running behind Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, is expected to win.

Minnesota's race for governor pits incumbent Tim Pawlenty against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. Mr. Pawlenty has had a successful first term and is well-funded, but he is tied in the polls with Mr. Hatch, in just the latest example of how no GOP incumbent is truly safe this year in a state that routinely votes Democratic for president. Democratic Amy Klobuchar now seems a shoo-in against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy for the seat of retiring Sen. Mark Dayton.

In New Mexico, GOP incumbent Heather Wilson has won five straight elections with less than 55% of the vote. If she loses this year, it will show GOP weakness with Hispanic voters. Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Jeff Bingaman don't face serious challenges.

Democrats are expecting a big night in New York, where Eliot Spitzer is poised to retake the governor's mansion, with Republican George Pataki retiring after three terms. In the Senate race, the only question is whether Hillary Clinton wins re-election with more than two-thirds of the vote as she prepares to run for president in 2008.

This Democratic tide leaves six GOP House seats vulnerable. Rep. Vito Fossella of Staten Island (13th District) can take no chances in a seat that leans slightly Democratic and in which he won only 59% in 2004. Reps. Sue Kelly (19th District) and John Sweeney (20th) are Hudson Valley Republicans who should stave off Democratic challengers but will have close races. Rep. Tom Reynolds (26th District) has recovered from negative publicity he received in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal and is a slight favorite to win, as is Rep. Jim Walsh of Syracuse (25th District). Democratic prosecutor Michael Arcuri has a good shot of winning the 24th District, an open GOP seat, in part because of a ham-handed GOP ad that implausibly linked him to a call made to a sex hotline.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle, his campaign fueled by contributions from Indian tribes to which he granted casino licenses, still leads Republican Rep. Mark Green. But Mr. Green has a chance to win if he can overcome the state's same-day voter registration problems, which in past elections have allowed phantom voters to register and vote on the same day with impunity.

In Colorado's governor's race, Democrat Bill Ritter is favored to beat Rep. Bob Beauprez. Elsewhere, easy victories are in store for Govs. Dave Heineman (R., Neb.), Mike Rounds (R., S.D.) and Dave Freudenthal (D., Wyo.); and Sens. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.), Herb Kohl (D., Wis.) and Craig Thomas (R., Wyo.)


10 p.m.

Idaho G
Iowa G
Montana S
Nevada GS
Utah S

If control of the U.S. Senate is still unclear at this hour, it will be decided in Montana, where gaffe-prone Sen. Conrad Burns has battled back into a tie with Democrat Jon Tester by portraying him as a tax hiker. Should Mr. Burns survive, he will be the rare GOP incumbent who ended the campaign in better shape than he began it.

The key contests to be decided this hour are governorships. Republicans are in danger of losing open races for governor in three states President Bush carried in 2004 as Reps. Jim Nussle of Iowa, Jim Gibbons of Nevada and Butch Otter of Idaho all struggle to make the transition back from Beltway office to their state capitals. Mr. Nussle trails narrowly, while Messrs. Gibbons and Otter are slight favorites.

Sen. John Ensign (R., Nev.) should dispatch Jimmy Carter's son Jack, and Sen. Orrin Hatch won't have any trouble winning a sixth term.

11 p.m.

California GS
Hawaii GS
Oregon G
Washington S

California's bipartisan gerrymander offers only two competitive races for the House: the seats of GOP incumbents John Doolittle (Fourth District) and Richard Pombo (11th). But the crushing body slam that Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to deliver to Democrat Phil Angelides should be enough ensure both men's re-election.

If Republicans win the race for lieutenant governor with conservative icon Tom McClintock, it will icing on the cake of a good evening for them in a normally liberal state. They will also gain a solid conservative front-runner for their nomination in the 2010 governor's race, when Mr. Schwarzenegger will be term-limited.

Oregon's race for governor features a hard-charging finish by Republican Ron Saxton. He may upset Democrat Ted Kulongoski, who has blundered his way through his first term.

In the Pacific Coast's only competitive Senate race, Washington Democrat Maria Cantwell looks as though she will overcome the candidacy of former corporate CEO Mike McGavick, another victim of the bad national climate that prevented many GOP challengers from achieving political altitude.

Republicans stand to do much better than expected in the race for Hawaii's Second District, being vacated by Democratic Rep. Ed Case, who lost a Senate primary. Republican Bob Hogue is running a serious and well-funded race. A popular former TV sportscaster and current state legislator, he is winning votes from supporters of the losing Democratic candidates in the September primary. The winner of that contest, former lieutenant governor Mazie Hirono, won the Democratic primary with only 22%. Ms. Hirono has a history of weak finishes. In 2002 she became the first Democrat to lose a race for governor in Hawaii in over 40 years. Mr. Hogue may come closer than anyone expects.

Hawaii's Republican Gov. Linda Lingle and Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka won't have any trouble winning re-election.

Midnight

Alaska G

Alaska has a genuine contest that tests the strength of the state's GOP leanings. Republican Sarah Palin, a former mayor of Wasilla, faces former governor Tony Knowles, the only Democrat to win a major statewide race in over 30 years. Ms. Palin beat Gov. Frank Murkowski in a primary, two years after Mr. Knowles lost a Senate race against the governor's daughter, Lisa.

Democrats are thrilled that their nominee for Alaska's lone House seat, Diane Benson, trails 34-year incumbent Don Young by only 48% to 41% in a new poll. Mr. Young is the chairman of the House Transportation Committee and the father of the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." In the end, Ms. Benson probably won't knock off Mr. Young because she just isn't a serious enough candidate. A writer and actress she was the Green Party nominee for governor in 2002, winning only 1% of the vote. But she will likely put a real scare into Mr. Young, the House's most visible symbol of pork-barrel spending.

[Sonic Youth]

Gore Vidal: the most important election in my lifetime

[Sonic Youth]

Not as interesting as your response. Anyone else?