Fall Predicitons

[FilmFan720]

In my humble opinion, Winslet is the most babe-like of all those women up for nominations this year.

[Penelope]

While there were certainly some wtf??? comments about Keisha and Catalina, realize that both of those nominations came about in years when the Best Actress races were staggeringly devoid of strong contenders. Certainly, Miller has a stronger résumé than either of those young ladies, but this year she's competing in what is without question one of the strongest Actress races in a long, long time--Mirren, Winslet (who IS a babe in my humble opinion), Cruz and Streep are already practically guaranteed nominees, with Dench, Bening, Zellweger and, heck, even Beyoncé as the possible 5th slot--Miller has an uphill battle.

[VanHelsing]

The difference between Streep & Dench is that the former has a lot more nominations to her credit so another nomination won't hurt her feelings cause, you can say, she's already used to losing. :p

As for Dench, I could swear that when the camera zoomed in on her face as they announced her name as a Best Actress nominee in previous event, she looked kinda worn out and maybe pissed off? In my mind, I was thinking that she might have said this to herself: "I keep getting nominated for Best Actress yet they never let me win. As if it's so hard to just give me that statuette. How can they think that my Supporting Actress win is enough?!". And if rumor that states she fought for a leading campaign for Notes On A Scandal is true, then all the more it proves how much she wants to win the Best Actress award and consecutive nominations might just diminish her hope and longing for that coveted yet elusive award.

Now, regarding Zellweger, do you guys really think AMPAS loves her? To me, if they had loved her, she would have gotten the leading award for Chicago. Not the consolation statuette for Cold Mountain. I doubt she'll make it this time round no matter how good her perf is or how wild Harvey campaign for her.

Miller, on the other hand, is an up-and-coming British actress who is not necessarily an unknown since she has appeared in films such as Layer Cake, Alfie & Casanova. Factory Girl could prove to be her biggest break yet. And seriously, why should the question "Who the **** is Sienna Miller?" even arise? If that's the case, why didn't we pose the questions "Who the **** is Keisha Castle-Hughes?" and "Who the **** is Catalina Sandino Moreno?" and the likes? The thing with AMPAS is that as much as they are predictable, sometimes, they love late entries to the game and provide us with shockeroos. And I feel that Miller might be one of them. For all you know, she could turn out to be this year's Knightley.

[Reza]

Who The F--- is Sienna Miller?

Am surprised, Damien, you haven't heard of her. She is quite an interesting actress - (watch her in Casanova). She has the acting chops to enter future Oscar races.

[Reza]

Any chance of a third Dame being nominated this year? Could Maggie Smith be a supporting actress contender for Keeping Mum?

I've seen Keeping Mum and while Maggie is amusing, it is not really an Oscar performance.

[flipp525]

Who The F--- is Sienna Miller? I've never heard of her, and all of a sudden she's the Oscar front-runner? Of course, the "babe" theory is Tom O'Neill's biggest cliche.

I don’t think that the Weinsteins are the absolute touch of gold anymore. They might successfully garner a nomination for Zellweger’s Beatrix Potter this year (who is such an interesting woman, btw, love that they’re bringing her story to the screen) but I highly doubt they’ll get Sienna Miller in there, too. Unless she delivers some incredible performance, I don’t think that playing Edie Sedgwick automatically equals an Oscar nomination ('who the f--k is Sienna Miller?' indeed.). Although Harvey campaigned for Felicity Huffman last year, I think the strength of her performance, the paucity of BA candidates, and her reputation in the acting community as an actor’s actor were just as influential as fat Harvey’s greasy porkbelly politicking.

It’s funny, VanHelsing, your reasons that Judi Dench might not be nominated are almost the exact same reasons that they wouldn’t want to nominate Meryl Streep year after year, even though we all know they do. Dench still gets excited about these accolades and she almost always shows up. This year, it’s not just a space-filler nod for Streep (a la Music of the Heart). It’s one of her best performances and demonstrates her often neglected comic side and impeccable sense of timing. I'm not saying it's going to get her that second Best Actress trophy we all know she's gonna receive down the line, but it's vintage Streep, nonetheless.

[VanHelsing]

That would be nice but considering Keeping Mum has come and gone, I doubt Smith is in the running.

Tripp, I would hardly categorize Winslet as a babe. And who's that old hag you're referring to? Miller?

[Big Magilla]

Tripp - there was some discussion that Forest Whitaker could go supporting, but I thought that it was decided he wouldn't. Things could change, of course, if enough critics awards see him as a supporting actor.

VanHelsing - thanks for the explanation. Any chance of a third Dame being nominated this year? Could Maggie Smith be a supporting actress contender for Keeping Mum?

[FilmFan720]

I posted this in the Last King of Scotland thread, but on Roeper and Random Guest Host this morning, both he and Kevin Smith were praising Forrest Whitaker in Last King.... However, they both took time out to mention he should have had more screentime, that the film centered too much on the other, fictional character and not enough on Idi Amin. Kevin Smith even called him the front-runner for Best SUPPORTING Actor for the film. If he is indeed a Supporting Actor, that would change things here some, and maybe more Griffiths back to Lead Actor?

Tom O'Neill is an idiot. How is it Sienna Miller gets the babe advantage over Kate Winslet? It's not like that old hag isn't bad to look at.

Tripp

[VanHelsing]

Magilla, Factory Girl already has a release date: Dec 29th. And this is the main reason why I've now included Miller in the BA race. Not because O'Neil came out with his "Babe Factor" article on Miller. Previously, I've contemplated including her name but held back since the film has no release date set yet. I think, if Miller really pulled off the role well, she definitely has a shot. It's a biopic that chronicles Edie Sedgwick's descent into drug addiction and mental illness. Hence, the role is essentially an Oscar bait for Miller! Now that Weinstein has decided to put up a campaign for her, I see no reason why I shouldn't include her at this point of time.

I also think that my two other alternatives, especially Streep, still has a shot at the Top 5 slots. Either one might take over Dench's spot if it turns out that Dench's role in Notes On A Scandal is too weak for a Leading Actress bid. Also, the fact that Dench has already been nominated last year might motivate some voters to cast their votes for other actresses since they see no point of nominating her knowing that she will lose again. If they still decide to nominate her and make her lose again, they will feel that it might cause Dench to lose interest in the Academy which they would obviously like to avoid. This is just a thought. On the contrary, can the voters resist nominating two Dames?

As for Watanabe in Letters From Iwo Jima, I think that if the film is indeed released this year together with Flags Of Our Fathers, the Academy might see the need to appreciate both films by Eastwood. And what better way to do so by nominating Watanabe for the other film which is not exactly a longshot scenario considering he is already a previous nominee. Yeah, I've heard reports that say LFIJ is a better film than FOOF but I find it hard for the voters to actually embrace LFIJ more than FOOF considering the former is in Japanese. Granted, a film's language shouldn't be an issue but when you have a companion piece directed by the same director, told in your own language and more or less of the same high quality, I'm pretty sure you'll prefer to hold it in higher esteem. Still, there's no release date set for LFIJ yet. If it does get released this year, Watanabe could be a contender.

And I just have this feeling that Little Children will not be embraced by the Academy. I think that its consolation prizes will come in the form of nominations for Winslet & Haley. I could be totally wrong but for now, that's it.

[Big Magilla]

Yes, but keep in mind that the competition for theatre awards is much smaller than the competition for film awards.

This year all the buzz for best actor surrounds O'Toole and Whitaker while the competetion for supporting actor is so fierce that it may be Jack Nicholson, who up to now has been thought to be a supporting player in The Departed, will be pushed for consideration as lead. Going in the opposite direction may earn Griffiths a nomination but it won;t his chances of winning any stronger and it won't help the film unless it is truly perceived as ensemble piece.

[dws1982]

If the producers are willing to sacrifice their lead actor to supporting status, it tends to diminish the project in most prognosticators' eyes. Though he has no chance of beating Peter O'Toole or Forest Whitaker for best actor, Griffiths has no chance of beating Adam Beach, Eddie Murphy or even Jackie Earel Haley for supporting actor either.

I disagree. Best Actor is an uphill fight for him, even if Peter O'Toole doesn't make the cut, but I think he can contend in Supporting. Plus, Griffiths did win a few awards in the Featured Actor category for the stage version, so it's not like this is Jamie Foxx level category fraud. (I also read somewhere--I can't remember where--that Griffiths's role in the film version was slightly smaller than in the stage version.)

[Big Magilla]

She's actually a fairly decent actress. She was quite charming in Lasse Hallstrom's Casanova opposite Heath Ledger.

Factory Girl, in which Miller plays Edie Sedgwick, is the Weinstein Company's latest opus. Poor Harvey is betwixt and between pushing both her and Renee Zellwger in Miss Potter for this year's best actress Oscar.

[Okri]

Miller's biggest claim to fame is to be the scorned women when Jude Law cheated on her. She's in a film about Andy Warhol's muse, Factory Girl.

[Damien]

Who The F--- is Sienna Miller? I've never heard of her, and all of a sudden she's the Oscar front-runner? Of course, the "babe" theory is Tom O'Neill's biggest clicje.

The subject matter of The Departed probably isn't elevated enough to get it a Best Picture nominee, but if it does half-way well at the box office, I can certailnly see the directors nominating Scorsese in lieu of a director of one of the Best Picture nominees, most likely Todd Field.