Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

The trailer for 'All the Money in the World' dropped.

The main question is whether this is a serious film, escapism, or rather something that straddles the two. For that, I'm talking about more The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo than The Departed.

I'm going to need convincing on this one, so until the reviews drop I'm betting against Ridley Scott ever getting his Oscar.

SHIT! I meant to say Metcalf Appy-polly loggies

Yeah, she's been getting loads of buzz, might be even stronger than Ronan. I'm still wondering If A24 can balance both TFP and LB.

ThePianist wrote:Lady Bird. She's been getting loads of raves for it.

She's the director with no acting role.

Lady Bird. She's been getting loads of raves for it.

What is Gerwig's film as an actress this year that you're referring to?

The current race for BP seems rather open. Most people have (for whatever reason) already concluded what'll win: Oldman, Hawkins, Dafoe, del Toro or Nolan, (with Supporting Actress still said to be rather debatable; Leo, Chau, Metcalf.) And strangely enough, I'm somewhat on the same page, (except for Sup. Actor and maybe Lead Actress.) Although, in regards to BP; no-one has a clue what'll happen. But I f**king do mate! (Sorta)

From observing the Awards Season Buzz, and the TIFF news; 'The Shape of Water' (bound to win the Audience award) seems like It could become this year's awards season darling, (Ala; Boyhood, Revenant, La La Land.) Someone even said that TSOW will not only become a top contender, but will be deemed as 'nuanced escapism', while not being regarded as 'fluffy' as LLL. Which essentially means It's going to loose BP after winning the Globe and BAFTA. But In all seriousness, If It really is going down that "Awards Season Darling" route; I expect 'Call Me By Your Name' or 'The Florida Project' to beat it out. Both are somewhat statement votes (for one reason or another) that are also low budget critical darlings. Although, If I had a gun put to my head right now; CMBYN will be my prediction, and that same prediction would all depend If 'The Florida Project' doesn't build enough backing and support by then. Because A24 still has Lady Bird, Disaster Artist (seemingly the praised wildcard,) and Sacred Deer. I don't think TFP will benefit too much If they decide to campaign for these films, and once again, It depends If they get enough critical support that's similar in structure to a 'Spotlight' situation. Because aside from Novitiate, SPC only has 1 film to put all of their load into, and I believe with the enough amount of campaigning and support; CMBYN could become the 'Should Win' film EVERYONE talks about. (Which has always been a decent indicator as of late.) And this is not to say It's GUARANTEED to be the same as the past 3 years. Just a mild-inference about this 'Shape of Water' frontrunner talk I've been hearing from others.

I've seen articles about The Children Act's A24 pickup, but where did you see the information about The Wife? On the other forums I lurk people seem to still be waiting for it to be bought.

Well that explains a lot, I was wondering what was going on with Close's Film. And I also concur that It was wise to bump it up, this leading actress category seems like It's going to be a bloodbath.

The Children Act has (wisely) been bumped to next year. The Wife, which features career-best reviews for Glenn Close in the lead role, has as well.

And If the AMPAS are still burnt out on Hanks, then there's still a chance Washington gets in, (if Gyllenhaal doesn't make it.)

OscarGuy wrote:Our whole point is, which you utterly fail to grasp, is that at this point in the game, claiming to know anything with certainty is a fool's errand. Washington's film may have gotten a mixed reaction, but Washington is one of those actors who could get nominated for reading the phone book (kinda like Meryl Streep).

This is also coming from you who cautioned months ago about making Gary Oldman a frontrunner for the win.

I had slight doubts about Oldman, mainly because I was waiting until word broke out. And If we're still on that "Yeah -- like we all knew La La Land had best picture nailed in September." Then what about Oldman loosing? Because a lot can happen between now and February. I still have him as my frontrunner, but I'm not going to say he's untouchable. The Academy does love Washington, I'm not denying that. Also, I never claimed to know anything with 100% certainty. I'm just not buying Denzel right now. The reviews for Washington have been good, but not 'Best Actor' good. Plus, Best Actor and Picture are usually correlated. We still have Carrell or Cranston for 'Last Flag Flying' to fill that final nom. Lastly, there's still a retiring DDL that'll probably go up against Oldman for the Oscar, in a final performance we haven't even seen yet.

Our whole point is, which you utterly fail to grasp, is that at this point in the game, claiming to know anything with certainty is a fool's errand. Washington's film may have gotten a mixed reaction, but Washington is one of those actors who could get nominated for reading the phone book (kinda like Meryl Streep).

This is also coming from you who cautioned months ago about making Gary Oldman a frontrunner for the win.

Speaking of TIFF; Anyone else besides me predicting 'The Shape of Water' wins the Audience Award?

OscarGuy wrote:Who knew that Chocolat would go from being a mediocrely reviewed film to a Best Picture nominee. Sometimes, thinking we know everything is worse than thinking we no nothing.

Neato.

That was Miramax; 17 years ago Mirmax we're talking about. Plus, there wasn't a whole lot of strong contenders for BP noms besides Traffic and Gladiator. (Hidden Dragon was a result of that same lacking, considering there were many who doubted It would do well with the "American Academy.") PLUS, we're talking about this year's Best Actor race. 2 Different Situations.

Mister Tee wrote:Yeah -- like we all knew La La Land had best picture nailed in September.

Why does this have anything to do with this year's Best Actor race?

So you're telling me It doesn't matter that 'Roman J. Israel, Esq.' received very harsh mixed reviews at TIFF, and that It'll somehow garner raves when It's released theatrically? La La Land was praised, not panned. Makes this situation with Washington less unpredictable, IMO.