The Post-Festival Landscape

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
It's not that DiCaprio's character is off-putting. You can give a great performance playing an off-putting character. It's the way he plays him.

It would be one thing if they changed the character to make him older, but instead they have an almost 50-year-old actor playing a 20-something World War I veteran. Instead of playing him as gullible and confused, he plays him as dumb and confused with weird facial expressions. It doesn't work for me.

De Niro also plays a real-life character who was much younger than him, but he plays the role in an ageless manner that doesn't distract in the way that DiCaprio does.

I mean, fair.

I think he's probably going to get a Golden Globe nomination and BAFTA tends to go his way. He picked up a nomination for Don't Look Up recently. Even if he doesn't have a SAG nom, I think he's firmly in the race. I think he's helped by the fact that Domingo is likely a sole nominee for Rustin and he's up against two comedic performances (Giamatti and Wright).

[Big Magilla]

It's not that DiCaprio's character is off-putting. You can give a great performance playing an off-putting character. It's the way he plays him.

It would be one thing if they changed the character to make him older, but instead they have an almost 50-year-old actor playing a 20-something World War I veteran. Instead of playing him as gullible and confused, he plays him as dumb and confused with weird facial expressions. It doesn't work for me.

De Niro also plays a real-life character who was much younger than him, but he plays the role in an ageless manner that doesn't distract in the way that DiCaprio does.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Yeah - I'm predicting those three with Cooper and Murphy.

Big Magilla wrote
Cooper, Murphy, Giamatti, Wright, and either Domingo or Scott.

The first four are part of the reason their films are strong contenders for Best Picture. Domingo is said to be the only reason to see Rustin, that the film itself is weak. Scott could surpass him.

Interesting that neither of you is predicting DiCaprio. Is this due to his performance or overall weakness of Killers of the Flower Moon.

I'm on the fence. I don't think I've ever quite seen him do something like this before but I understand those who find it (or his character) off-putting. We can all look back at all the missed nominations from him in the past, but post-Titanic he's only missed out on two from a Best Picture heavy: The Departed (for the weirdest reasons) and Django Unchained (tbh, I still don't know how/why he didn't win for that). Unless there's a significant backlash against the film, I think he gets in.

Right now, I'm predicting Cooper, DiCaprio, and Murphy, and I'm probably leaning towards Domingo and Wright for now.

[Big Magilla]

Cooper, Murphy, Giamatti, Wright, and either Domingo or Scott.

The first four are part of the reason their films are strong contenders for Best Picture. Domingo is said to be the only reason to see Rustin, that the film itself is weak. Scott could surpass him.

[Okri]

Okri wrote
Honestly, I started typing the post before I saw the movie. I'm not predicting Giamatti, but I think the film is probably ensconced in the top five.

Oh interesting. We're far out from the precursor awards but watching the film I did find myself thinking that while this is a very showy role for Giamatti his character strikes me as a little too weak and (sadly) repellant for a Best Actor award. He makes Miles look as young and vibrant Dominic Sessa character in contrast. You see him losing out to Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott, or Jeffrey Wright (just guessing?

Yeah - I'm predicting those three with Cooper and Murphy.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Honestly, I started typing the post before I saw the movie. I'm not predicting Giamatti, but I think the film is probably ensconced in the top five.

Oh interesting. We're far out from the precursor awards but watching the film I did find myself thinking that while this is a very showy role for Giamatti his character strikes me as a little too weak and (sadly) repellant for a Best Actor award. He makes Miles look as young and vibrant Dominic Sessa character in contrast. You see him losing out to Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott, or Jeffrey Wright (just guessing?

Okri wrote
a) That's sorta what I mean about the Drive My Car comparison. Drive My Car dominated with the critics groups and that's what pushed it into contention, in my mind. I don't think Anatomy of a Fall will get that far.

b) At first, I thought that Past Lives would get in director, actress, supporting actor and song. But yeah, I was being way too enthusiastic. I think it probably is capped at those two nominations now.

c) While it won't happen here, I'm curious what Hollywood thinks of about the Swift concert movie. I remain quite ignorant about her music, to be honest, but does the box office for the film make it a different beast, or was it expected?

a) Definitely don't think Anatomy of a Fall will get that far. But if you were to ask me in 2021 if I thought Drive My Car I wouldn't either.

b) Got it. Yeah, that's generally where I'm at although it might sneak into Best Original Score or Film Editing (that field is pretty open). But as we're chatting, the early reviews for another A24 film (The Iron Claw) are dropping. Very Twitter fan-ish but they seem to dig it. I'm seeing a mix of crowd-pleasing but also very Sean Durkin. Maybe it's in the mix.

c) The Taylor Swift doc over-performed expectations but I don't think anyone was surprised. Everything I've seen suggests that it feeds into the new belief in micro-targeting. Find a fanbase, make sure it's exactly what they want, but also make sure it's something that they feel like they have to see/experience, and hit it hard. I think it'll be up for that new Golden Globe category. Maybe if Best Original Song Score was still a thing it would get in, but that's it. To my knowledge, there isn't an original song but man, if that won't get viewers to watch...

[Okri]

I haven't seen The Zone of Interest but I agree with you on Anatomy of a Fall. I would be far more bullish on it if.... y'know, it wasn't a legal drama executed with zest. I'm not the biggest Drive my Car fan but it's a far fuller meal.

....

I think Past Lives gets in due to the strength of its box office, due to A24, and the fact that it has to go to ten. But because I struggle to see it getting more than two (Picture and Original Screenplay) that concerns me a bit. Where else does it appear?

.....

The only question I have is whether The Zone of Interest or (especially) The Iron Claw replaces one of them.

a) That's sorta what I mean about the Drive My Car comparison. Drive My Car dominated with the critics groups and that's what pushed it into contention, in my mind. I don't think Anatomy of a Fall will get that far.

b) At first, I thought that Past Lives would get in director, actress, supporting actor and song. But yeah, I was being way too enthusiastic. I think it probably is capped at those two nominations now.

c) While it won't happen here, I'm curious what Hollywood thinks of about the Swift concert movie. I remain quite ignorant about her music, to be honest, but does the box office for the film make it a different beast, or was it expected?

[Okri]

Honestly, I started typing the post before I saw the movie. I'm not predicting Giamatti, but I think the film is probably ensconced in the top five.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
For the sake of argument, I'll agree with your top five, Sabin, though I'm a little curious about The Holdovers.

Having seen The Holdovers, I'm interested in your thoughts. I don't see it as an Oscar juggernaut by any stretch. I'm going to check it out again. I like it fine, but it's not as thorny or sentimental as one might want from something like this. That said, I think it benefits from weaker standing of other contenders.

Okri wrote
Let's pair up the ten you mention (and I do think that the remaining five will come from those ten)

The Cannes Duo: Because the Neon and A24 purchased Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, they started popping up on prediction lists. I think that's the reason, because they really are quite removed from what AMPAS usually goes for. I've not seen the Glazer, but it's not as if we thought Under the Skin was going to be a best picture nominee in 2013. Anatomy of a Fall is more straightforward, but without the chutzpah that I think it needs to make it in. Drive My Car is a noteworthy antecedent for the Triet, but I don't think that makes it in without the critics awards universally pushing it (and if they do so for the Triet, I'll start predicting it).

I haven't seen The Zone of Interest but I agree with you on Anatomy of a Fall. I would be far more bullish on it if.... y'know, it wasn't a legal drama executed with zest. I'm not the biggest Drive my Car fan but it's a far fuller meal.

Okri wrote
The Netflix Biopics: I'm also quite curious as to why Maestro isn't a frontrunner in this conversation and honestly, I wonder if there's a degree of exhaustion about biopics. I assume I'm projecting a little, but there's a degree of remove to both Cooper and Mulligan (relative to the Oscars) that allows me to rationalize my hesitance. I'd predict it, but not with conviction. As for Rustin, I think that's an acting play only in this race.

Agree with Rustin, and it might not even get in for Actor at this point.

With Maestro, I think you make a good point. I just wonder if there's something about the film that isn't in the zeitgeist right now. Maybe Sondheim fatigue, considering West Side Story just bombed. Or maybe a closeted gay love affair just looks passé right now. I think the strike will affect its campaigners, but idk every trailer looks better than the one before. Jeffrey Wells, Owen Gleiberman, and Alonso Duralde all really like it. That's a wide litmus test. If its as good as I think it might be, I think it's locked in for Best Picture with a revolving door of other nominations ranging from 7-10. It actually might be a good play for an Editing nomination.

Okri wrote
The Early releases: I think Past Lives is in. I've seen it twice and its really lingers after. I may have overstated it's awards potential, but I'd be surprised if it got left out. Meanwhile, I do think that Air is a little too light to stick around. In a slightly lesser year I could see it, but I think this year is too strong for it to make it in.

I think Past Lives gets in due to the strength of its box office, due to A24, and the fact that it has to go to ten. But because I struggle to see it getting more than two (Picture and Original Screenplay) that concerns me a bit. Where else does it appear?

I was originally more bullish on Air because I thought it had an inside track. It looks like a good bet for nominations for Golden Globes (Comedy), SAG Ensemble, and a few guild showings. But now it just feels like yesterday's news.

Okri wrote
The Underknowns: I don't think The Color Purple needs to be that good to be in. It just needs to be a bright shiny object at the box office for a few weeks. The material has obviously done well with awards before (Pulitzer winning novel, Tony winning in both incarnations, Oscar nominated original film) and financial success (different era of course, but the original film was a top five hit of the year and the stage show also made back it's budget). I like the idea of The Iron Claw, I like Durkin (of the Borderline trio, he's the one most likely to become an Oscar nominee), but I think it can easily get crowded out.

I think you make a good point that generally speaking it's done well before so why not again? But I'm not confident that it's going to actually be the bright shiny object at the box office for a few weeks. That said, its box office competition doesn't look very quality: Aquaman and The Last Kingdom, The Boys in the Boat, Migration, and The Iron Claw. Speaking of which, if there's a sleeper waiting out there it might be that. It's just hard to know much about it because it hasn't been seen yet.

Magilla, getting Million Dollar Baby vibes from it?

Okri wrote
The Festival Darlings: I think what Sabin says about American Fiction (the strikes against it might be from a different era) also could be applied to All of Us Strangers. I really like the chances for both. I keep hearing how emotionally affecting All of Us Strangers is. I'll echo Sabin in that I think American Fiction in skewering the publishing industry allows the film industry a little bit of distance while also being recognizable.

I also think that with the strike going on, a film that is at least partially about frustration with a media establishment (American Fiction) might be in vogue.

Okri wrote
So, to pick five more: All of us Strangers, American Fiction, The Color Purple, Maestro, Past Lives

The only question I have is whether The Zone of Interest or (especially) The Iron Claw replaces one of them.

[Okri]

For the sake of argument, I'll agree with your top five, Sabin, though I'm a little curious about The Holdovers.

Let's pair up the ten you mention (and I do think that the remaining five will come from those ten)

The Cannes Duo: Because the Neon and A24 purchased Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, they started popping up on prediction lists. I think that's the reason, because they really are quite removed from what AMPAS usually goes for. I've not seen the Glazer, but it's not as if we thought Under the Skin was going to be a best picture nominee in 2013. Anatomy of a Fall is more straightforward, but without the chutzpah that I think it needs to make it in. Drive My Car is a noteworthy antecedent for the Triet, but I don't think that makes it in without the critics awards universally pushing it (and if they do so for the Triet, I'll start predicting it).

The Netflix Biopics: I'm also quite curious as to why Maestro isn't a frontrunner in this conversation and honestly, I wonder if there's a degree of exhaustion about biopics. I assume I'm projecting a little, but there's a degree of remove to both Cooper and Mulligan (relative to the Oscars) that allows me to rationalize my hesitance. I'd predict it, but not with conviction. As for Rustin, I think that's an acting play only in this race.

The Early releases: I think Past Lives is in. I've seen it twice and its really lingers after. I may have overstated it's awards potential, but I'd be surprised if it got left out. Meanwhile, I do think that Air is a little too light to stick around. In a slightly lesser year I could see it, but I think this year is too strong for it to make it in.

The Underknowns: I don't think The Color Purple needs to be that good to be in. It just needs to be a bright shiny object at the box office for a few weeks. The material has obviously done well with awards before (Pulitzer winning novel, Tony winning in both incarnations, Oscar nominated original film) and financial success (different era of course, but the original film was a top five hit of the year and the stage show also made back it's budget). I like the idea of The Iron Claw, I like Durkin (of the Borderline trio, he's the one most likely to become an Oscar nominee), but I think it can easily get crowded out.

The Festival Darlings: I think what Sabin says about American Fiction (the strikes against it might be from a different era) also could be applied to All of Us Strangers. I really like the chances for both. I keep hearing how emotionally affecting All of Us Strangers is. I'll echo Sabin in that I think American Fiction in skewering the publishing industry allows the film industry a little bit of distance while also being recognizable.

So, to pick five more: All of us Strangers, American Fiction, The Color Purple, Maestro, Past Lives

[Big Magilla]

I hadn't thought of Birdman as a satire but according to Rolling Stone, it is.

[Greg]

. . . Poor Things, is a satire, a comedy genre that has never won.

Birdman?

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I think The Zone of Interest is one foreign language film too many for the Academy with Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall seemingly more likely but I'm always wrong about something so it could be that either Past Lives or Anatomy of a Fall will be the one left out. I do think, however, that there will only be two.

I think that's a fair point. Having seen Anatomy of a Fall, I'm skeptical it gets in which is not to say it's not good. That said, I was skeptical about Past Lives for a while. Now I don't see how it misses given the competition.

I have a friend (critic but also an Oscar fan) who has seen most everything at this point and he thinks the nominees are going to be all that I listed but All of Us Strangers (which he loves but admits it's a stretch) in over The Color Purple and The Zone of Interest included because he doesn't really see what else it cold be. He loves All of Us Strangers but he says it would be an odd choice. He doesn't love The Zone of Interest despite it being up his alley stylistically but honestly doesn't know what else.


To your point though about foreign-language contenders, I did take a scroll back and you are right. Their limit seems to be one film per year, if that. The only exception I can see is last year in addition to All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All At Once and Triangle of Sadness have a few subtitled scenes. The only excuse I can now give them is that there has only been a mandatory ten nominees for the last two years but the idea that the lineup can stretch beyond five and there isn't more than one subtitled film is pretty wild. Anyway if that's the case, then we're looking at Past Lives with two other spots (excluding Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest). Also excluding The Color Purple but including All of Us Strangers. All of this makes me think that Air might be an undervalued film in this race. Good bet for a PGA and SAG nomination.

[Big Magilla]

I think The Zone of Interest is one foreign language film too many for the Academy with Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall seemingly more likely but I'm always wrong about something so it could be that either Past Lives or Anatomy of a Fall will be the one left out. I do think, however, that there will only be two.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I counted 9 biographical/real life dramas winning since 2000 vs. 9 musical winners and 9 comedy winners throughout the entire history of the Oscars. That bodes well for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, of course.

Oh, I think Oppenheimer is going to win. Tbh, I don't really see how it doesn't. I think it's easily the frontrunner to win the DGA and BAFTA. I think winning the PGA makes a lot of sense. I also don't see how it misses out on a SAG nomination. The only precedent for all of those (more or less) resulting in losing Best Picture is The Power of the Dog.

Big Magilla wrote
On the other hand, unless it is a huge box-office hit or a major critics' winner, or both, I think Poor Things has a tougher climb especially since it could be one of three satires in the running, Barbie and American Fiction being the others.

Well, Poor Things will have a lot of guild support. I have a friend who saw it and said Poor Things isn't really a satire. He describes it as a bawdy but crowd-pleasing romp.

Big Magilla wrote
My predictions, at the moment, also include Maestro, All of Us Strangers, Past Lives, and Anatomy of a Fall.

I can see Zone of Interest, Ferrari and Napoleon showing up in other categories but not Best Picture.

I am also doubtful of The Color Purple making it into the top ten. It looks like a misfire along the lines of Nine which nevertheless did end up with four nominations including Best Costume Design which looks like this film's easiest get. Both Taraji P. Henson and Danielle Brooks are possible supporting actress nominees, but neither is certain.

Why not The Zone of Interest?