SAG Nominations

[mlrg]

No idea where else to put this but apparently there's a lot of industry support and screenings for Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. Best Actress remains a pretty open field with questions of where and if Michelle Williams will show and an abundance of strong contenders but really only two locks (Blanchett, Yeoh).

I noticed this today on my instagram feed. Jane Fonda posted about the movie and the performance and I also saw posts or likes from Gwyneth Paltrow, Helen Hunt and Allison Janney

[Sabin]

No idea where else to put this but apparently there's a lot of industry support and screenings for Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. Best Actress remains a pretty open field with questions of where and if Michelle Williams will show and an abundance of strong contenders but really only two locks (Blanchett, Yeoh).

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I think it's extremely likely that this will be the first time since 1934, when there were only three nominees, that all the nominees for Best Actor are first timers. The last time there were five first time Best Actor nominees was 1930-31.

It's also possible that all five nominees for Best Supporting Actor will be first timers, making this the first time that all ten male acting nominees are first timers, though I expect that Judd Hirsch will be the exception.

I agree. Honestly, I think it has less to do with nominated people they've honored before and more about writing down the names from a smaller pool of movies. Also FWIW, someone like Brendan Gleeson doesn't really feel like a first-time nominee at this point.

I know that Judd Hirsch hasn't shown up anywhere yet but I still have a hard time that anybody who really likes The Fabelmans doesn't jot his name down.

I was going to write this in the previous post but really, the fifth nominee for Best Actor should be Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin. He has more than enough time to constitute leading time, plenty of inner-life and turmoil, and there's a clearer male supporting player in the film (Koeghan).

[Big Magilla]

I think it's extremely likely that this will be the first time since 1934, when there were only three nominees, that all the nominees for Best Actor are first timers. The last time there were five first time Best Actor nominees was 1930-31.

It's also possible that all five nominees for Best Supporting Actor will be first timers, making this the first time that all ten male acting nominees are first timers, though I expect that Judd Hirsch will be the exception.

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
I'd like to point out out that if you're not predicting Tom Cruise for that 5th slot (or Hugh Jackman, for that matter), you are likely predicting an all-first-timer Best Actor lineup...something that hasn't happened since the 1930's.

Previous nominees besides Cruise in the running -- and I'm being very generous here -- include Hugh Jackman (The Son), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Will Smith (Emancipation), Adam Driver (White Noise), Timothee Chalamet (Bones and All), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Daniel Kaluuya (Nope). Only two of them are on the BAFTA long list: Cruise and Kaluuya. The latter is surprising to me although I think he gives the best performance in the film.

If I had to guess today, I'd say it ends up being Gabriel LaBelle because if you love The Fabelmans, chances are you think the kid's good too. There's no such guarantee that Top Gun: Maverick voters end up voting for Tom Cruise, and the rest of the contenders are likely to be sole nominees.

[anonymous1980]

Sandler's nod does do the good work of blocking out Tom Cruise. I'm not going to let down my guard completely on Cruise -- remember, we thought Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge was done when he missed DGA, only to find him cited by the usually more discerning directors' branch. But it sure does feel like, if a Cruise nomination were a live possibility, he'd have shown up either here or at the Globes. That said, I don't know who the 5th nominee will be (I can't even feel comfortable about Nighy at 4th). Rooting for Mescal, I guess, but not wildly enthusiastic about anyone.

I'd like to point out out that if you're not predicting Tom Cruise for that 5th slot (or Hugh Jackman, for that matter), you are likely predicting an all-first-timer Best Actor lineup...something that hasn't happened since the 1930's.

[Mister Tee]

I know this is marginally offset by the DGA nod for Kosinski today, but something I'm getting from these nominations (and from last night's results) is, there's been wild over-estimation of how well sequels will do this year. Godfather II and III aside, such films have very rarely scored well with Academy voters, yet -- largely because everybody wants to tout the big money-makers -- we've heard talk of Avatar, Maverick and Glass Onion all getting in under best picture, with acting nods for Cruise and Monae also pushed. SAG seems to be telling us, not so fast: we're still voting for the kinds of movies we've always chosen: actor-centered, popular if possible, but not so much action/comic book stuff (that's what the Stunt Ensemble category is for). And original material, please.

I looked at the silly twins' predictions for SAG Ensemble last night, and was shocked to see they'd omitted Banshees. How could you not expect that movie, with its best picture heat, to make the list? Whether people liked the movie or not, the first thing they'd say is "but the actors were great". I guess there was some thought the cast was too small, but its 4 primary actors match closely to Sideways, a film that won the prize. Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere were also fairly obvious choices. Babylon and Women Talking turning up, with no corresponding individual nominations, is just a bit...weird -- but this keeps the films alive, if barely.

Sandler and de Armas both showing up as surprise nominees, on the same day SAG announces a streaming deal with Netflix, has a slightly hinky feel to it. Sandler's nod does do the good work of blocking out Tom Cruise. I'm not going to let down my guard completely on Cruise -- remember, we thought Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge was done when he missed DGA, only to find him cited by the usually more discerning directors' branch. But it sure does feel like, if a Cruise nomination were a live possibility, he'd have shown up either here or at the Globes. That said, I don't know who the 5th nominee will be (I can't even feel comfortable about Nighy at 4th). Rooting for Mescal, I guess, but not wildly enthusiastic about anyone.

The omission of Michelle Williams is certainly a blow to her chances. I presume there's some feeling her role isn't quite at lead actress level (certainly not compared to de Armas, who dominates her film). Someone at Awards Watch actually made a cogent observation, that the kind of role Williams has -- sort of flaky mother -- better matches the profile of a supporting nominee than a lead one. Part of me thinks we could see a last-minute, Winslet-in-The-Reader like switch, with Williams showing up in support. The rest of the slate seems pretty strong; Deadwyler is obviously a lot happier today than she was on the day of the Globe nods.

Supporting actor is more or less irrelevant, since Quan is clearly going to bulldoze his way through the season, and the Banshees boys are evidently locked in as also-rans. The other two spots are fungible, and it's hard to get worked up over them.

Supporting actress remains the most interesting slate; unlike the other three acting categories, the problem is narrowing down, not filling out. Chau and Hsu are quite legitimate contenders, added to the mix along with omittees from the Globes like DeLeon and Mulligan. I assume there'll be some bandwagon-jumping, to say Bassett is now on her way, after her win last night and this citation. And she may well end up with the nomination. But I get a slight Stallone-in-Creed vibe from it: her competitors will be from films more central to either the best picture or lead acting slates, and that may give them better traction than a sole nominee from a comic book movie. In any case, this category remains the most difficult to parse at this juncture.

[Big Magilla]

Breaking down the nominees:

Best Actress

Blanchett, Yeoh, and Deadwyler should have no problem repeating at the Oscars, the latter despite her unfortunate snubbing at the Globes.

Williams can still get in despite her snubbing here but, yes, she's in the wrong category and I don't see a lot of support for putting her back in the right one.

Ana de Armis, or maybe it's the never nominated Marilyn Monroe she is playing, seems to be a thing. Ironic, because the only actress previously nominated for playing Monroe was Williams.

Viola Davis is the new Meryl Streep. She makes a movie, she's in the conversation. Whether she makes it to the finish line remains to be seen. Either Olivia Colman or Emma Thompson, both of whom are always in the conversation as well, could pull a last-minute surprise though it seems doubtful this late in the game.

Best Actor

Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighty are all virtual certainties. What Sandler is doing in this group, I have no idea. Paul Mescal, Hugh Jackman, Jeremy Pope, Harris Dickenson and Gabriel LaBelle in a resurgent Fabelmans, could all take his place.

Best Supporting Actress

Women Talking seems to be dead and all but buried. Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy are out. It's between critics favorite Kerry Condon, veterans Bassett and Curtis, and three Asian women - Hong Chao, Stephanie Hsu, and Dolly de Leon. Anyone else at this point would be a surprise.

Best Supporting Actor

Gleeson and Keoghan continue their ascent, Paul Dano pulls ahead of early favorite Judd Hirsch, though both could easily be nominated by AMPAS. They and presumed winner Ke Huy Quan would be by guess to fill Oscar's five slots. I still have no idea why Eddie Redmayne is getting traction for his lead role in The Good Nurse. I can see Ben Whishaw getting in here as he did on the BAFTA short list despite none of the women from his otherwise all-female cast of Women Talking getting in, but who would he replace?

[Sabin]

Fun math: the following performances picked up SAG and Globe nominations but didn't get Oscar nominations in the last few years:

2021:
*Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
*Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
*Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
*Ruth Negga, Passing

2020:
*Jared Leto, The Little Things
*Helena Zengel, News of the World

2019:
*Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
*Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

2018:
*Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
*Timothee Chalameet, Beautiful Boy
*John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

2017:
*Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
*Hong Chau, Downsizing
*Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
*James Franco, The Disaster Artist

So on average between 2-4 matchups don't make it to an Oscar nomination.

What do these films have in common? Well, at least half of the performances were in the running as sole nominees (Affleck, Negga, Leto, Lopez, Chalamet, Carell, Chau). This would seem to apply to Ana de Armas and Eddie Redmayne. There are probably some other assumptions I could make like "performance + tech" or "comedy performance" but that seems to be a good place to start. It's possible that Bill Nighy and Danielle Deadwyler could fall into this category as well but their films have a decent chance at pulling in another nomination (Song and Screenplay).

[Sabin]

Sonic Youth wrote
No Michelle Williams feels like a stumble for Fabelman’s after its big night last night, especially compared to Banshees and EEAAO both achieving their best case scenarios here.

Pushing her for lead was a bit mistake. It's not a leading performance and this is a crowded year.

But Judd Hirsch not getting in over Eddie Redmayne for The Good Nurse is a bit of a slight. For a while, I thought he'd be the film's only acting nomination.

[Sonic Youth]

No Michelle Williams feels like a stumble for Fabelman’s after its big night last night, especially compared to Banshees and EEAAO both achieving their best case scenarios here.

[Sabin]

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
*Austin Butler, Elvis
*Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
*Brendan Fraser, The Whale
*Bill Nighy, Living
*Adam Sandler, Hustle

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
*Ana de Armas, Blonde
*Cate Blanchett, Tár
*Viola Davis, The Woman King
*Danielle Deadwyler, Till
*Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
*Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
*Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
*Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
*Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
*Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
*Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
*Hong Chau, The Whale
*Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
*Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
*Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast:
*Babylon
*The Banshees of Inisherin
*Everything Everywhere All At Once
*The Fabelmans
*Women Talking

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble:
*Avatar: The Way of Water
*The Batman
*Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
*Top Gun: Maverick
*The Woman King