Degree of Certainty
Re: Degree of Certainty
We basically have no way of knowing who is going to win Best Actress.
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Degree of Certainty
With BAFTA and DGA in the books, only ACE and ASC remain of the precursors that might affect our choices. Looking over the 20 main categories (leaving out the three shorts slates, which to me are always variable), here's how I see the relative difficulty, put into three rough groups:
Pretty much locked
This doesn't guarantee a win -- as supporters of La La Land or Glenn Close/The Wife can attest -- but I pretty much figure everyone's going to be predicting the same, with confidence, in all these categories:
Leading Actor
Supporting Actor
Director
Cinematography
Production Design
Achievement in Sound
Music Score
Animated Feature
Someone may be ahead, but the race isn't over
Picture
Supporting Actress (had anyone but Youn won today, I'd have bumped this down a notch)
Original Screenplay
Costume Design
Visual Effects
International Film
Documentary Feature
Up in the air
Leading Actress
Adapted Screenplay (today's result pushed this down from the middle category)
Song
Film Editing
Make-up & Hair Styling
I'll (hopefully) explain my thinking on some of these in One-by-One threads this week.
Pretty much locked
This doesn't guarantee a win -- as supporters of La La Land or Glenn Close/The Wife can attest -- but I pretty much figure everyone's going to be predicting the same, with confidence, in all these categories:
Leading Actor
Supporting Actor
Director
Cinematography
Production Design
Achievement in Sound
Music Score
Animated Feature
Someone may be ahead, but the race isn't over
Picture
Supporting Actress (had anyone but Youn won today, I'd have bumped this down a notch)
Original Screenplay
Costume Design
Visual Effects
International Film
Documentary Feature
Up in the air
Leading Actress
Adapted Screenplay (today's result pushed this down from the middle category)
Song
Film Editing
Make-up & Hair Styling
I'll (hopefully) explain my thinking on some of these in One-by-One threads this week.