Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!
Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:25 pm
I have liked Wright's past films and I think he's a cleverer craftsman and more auteuristic filmmaker than people give him credit for, but I can't say Darkest Hour looks interesting on paper - that being said, it's a revered actor who only got his career due in a (surprise) nomination quite recently after being first off the tongue when you'd ask people who one of the best non-nominated actors was, loaded up with prosthetics playing one of the major figures in recent history and a British icon and doing it at another pivotal time in British and world history. It'll clean up at the BAFTAS and in any usual year would haul in heaps of Oscar nominations regardless of its quality. Best Actor looks like a strong slate this year but I'll eat my hat if Oldman isn't nominated and I'd put money on him winning, sight unseen. I'm afraid to say he looks to be 'anointed'. There's gonna be lots of twists and hills to die on in what looks like a strange year (and judging from this year and last year's membership shakeups and their clear effect on last year's slate of nominees) but an Oldman snub is astronomically unlikely to be one of them.
The Globes nominating him, on the other hand - that's a wager
Edit: I'll be hesitant to drop him as my winner's prediction unless the film truly is a massive bomb, but I think his only competition for the gong are Day-Lewis (retiring for the millionth time) in a film that from what I've heard - though I've heard contradictory plot details - might be a tough sale for the Academy even if it wasn't directed by PTA, who they seem to have fallen out of love with. Friends who have read the Downsizing script say that Damon's role is very much straight-man to the lunacy going on around him and Hong Chau's role is the best bet for major contention, but if the film's a hit I'd predict him as a nominee though not a winner. Who else? Whichever Last Flag Flying actor is the lead, possibly, or Andrew Garfield (Breathe) or Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman), though I'm not personally confident in either film's wider chances. Other than them I don't see anyone on the horizon, unless the Washington-Gilroy film gets a release this year - a lot of people were angry that he lost last year and with the new membership I can see that bloc growing.
The Globes nominating him, on the other hand - that's a wager
Edit: I'll be hesitant to drop him as my winner's prediction unless the film truly is a massive bomb, but I think his only competition for the gong are Day-Lewis (retiring for the millionth time) in a film that from what I've heard - though I've heard contradictory plot details - might be a tough sale for the Academy even if it wasn't directed by PTA, who they seem to have fallen out of love with. Friends who have read the Downsizing script say that Damon's role is very much straight-man to the lunacy going on around him and Hong Chau's role is the best bet for major contention, but if the film's a hit I'd predict him as a nominee though not a winner. Who else? Whichever Last Flag Flying actor is the lead, possibly, or Andrew Garfield (Breathe) or Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman), though I'm not personally confident in either film's wider chances. Other than them I don't see anyone on the horizon, unless the Washington-Gilroy film gets a release this year - a lot of people were angry that he lost last year and with the new membership I can see that bloc growing.