Post-Globe Predictions

[criddic3]

What about Matt Damon? I can't believe that Mark Wahlberg is getting more traction for Oscar than he is. He's really the second lead in The Departed, but they could make a case for nominating him in supporting along with Nicholson. I think if Damon isn't nominated, then only Nicholson will get the supporting nod for this film. Why Wahlberg? He was good, sure, but is he really one of the top five of the year?

[mashari]

I'm hoping a late surge for someone, anyone, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil perhaps, will bump Streep from her presumed umpteenth nod for The Devil Wears Prada, a nothing performance in a nothing movie.

If that is the case, will it be the first time in the history of Oscars that all Best Actress nominees are non-Americans (with Mirren, Winslet, Cruz, Dench)?

On the other hand, I'm personally all for Mirren to win but let's look at a different scenario: In case the nomination pattern of 1997 repeats (sole American nominee - Helen Hunt), will this year's sole American nominee win?

That didn't work for Kathy Bates in the supporting field the following year. And Streep, whom I normally feel indifferent towards, I thought was divine in Prada. She could have easily taken the screaming-I-am-Diva route which would have been the choice of a lesser actress(Bette Midler perhaps), but surprisingly showed great restraint and still was just as menacing. Her nod this year will be deserved.

[inky]

I'm hoping a late surge for someone, anyone, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil perhaps, will bump Streep from her presumed umpteenth nod for The Devil Wears Prada, a nothing performance in a nothing movie.

If that is the case, will it be the first time in the history of Oscars that all Best Actress nominees are non-Americans (with Mirren, Winslet, Cruz, Dench)?

On the other hand, I'm personally all for Mirren to win but let's look at a different scenario: In case the nomination pattern of 1997 repeats (sole American nominee - Helen Hunt), will this year's sole American nominee win?

[Big Magilla]

I'm hoping a late surge for someone, anyone, Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil perhaps, will bump Streep from her presumed umpteenth nod for The Devil Wears Prada, a nothing performance in a nothing movie.

[flipp525]

I forgot to mention Djimon Honsou as a potential upsetter.

What about Jackie Earle Haley? He seems like just the kind of out-of-the-blue Marcia Gay Harden type contender to swoop in and win the award in an upset if there are so many strikes against those you've already listed.

Others that could potentially fill in that last nomination spot in a "surprise development": Bill Nighy (Notes on a Scandal), James McAvoy (The Last King of Scotland), Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Daniel Craig (Infamous)

You're right, though. Best Supporting Actor does seem to be the category with the most open possibility at this point in terms of nominees and eventual winner.

[dws1982]

So now I'm keeping my eye on two other guys: Mark Wahlberg and Michael Sheen.

Assuming that Leo is nominated for The Departed (and this would be his 3rd nomination), it would seem rather bizarre that Marky Mark would win an Oscar before him, especially from the same movie.

This is true. But I'm still afraid that Leo's Blood Diamond thing will leave him without a nomination at all. Especially since both performances are pretty well-regarded (so there's no clear weaker to abandon), and the studio isn't trying to sneak him in the back door for a Supporting nomination for one of them.

Therefore, I should think Sheen would have a stronger chance of winning, tho his failure to place in precursors would tend not to support this.

Supporting performers seems to be able to win without much precursor support fairly often. (James Coburn only showed up at the SAG awards and at the Indie Spirit Awards; Marcia Gay Harden won New York and was nominated for the Spirit Award.) Sheen probably has the BAFTA in the bag at least.

-----------------
I forgot to mention Djimon Honsou as a potential upsetter.

[Penelope]

So now I'm keeping my eye on two other guys: Mark Wahlberg and Michael Sheen.

Assuming that Leo is nominated for The Departed (and this would be his 3rd nomination), it would seem rather bizarre that Marky Mark would win an Oscar before him, especially from the same movie. Therefore, I should think Sheen would have a stronger chance of winning, tho his failure to place in precursors would tend not to support this.

[dws1982]

A few thoughts:
- If Dreamgirls ends up as a Picture-but-not-Director entry (I'm not predicting it'll happen, but just entertaining the possibility), what becomes our Best Picture frontrunner? The Queen has performed really well with critics (especially since, as Damien mentioned, it seems like the kind of movie that a lot of critics would see as middlebrow), but it seems a little small for Best Picture. Not just small as in low-budget, but small as in small. Crash last year was low-budget, but it was a big movie--wide scope, big confrontations, car wrecks, shootings. Tonally, The Queen is closer to Brokeback Mountain. (Which almost won, so maybe my point is negated.) The Departed was a big hit, but the Academy doesn't often go for those big, profane genre pieces, and there may be a perception that the movie itself was mostly a $90 million lark for Scorsese and DiCaprio. In other words: Is The Departed important enough for Best Picture? Then there's Letters From Iwo Jima, which seems to have redeemed Eastwoods World War II project. It has Academy-approved names attached (Eastwood, Spielberg, Haggis), but the subtitle thing will always be an obstacle. Those four movies are the only ones I see actually contending for the win; Anything else--Babel (despite the strong Globe showing), Little Miss Sunshine, United 93, et al--seem like they'll be nominated in that no-hope spot reserved for things like Ray or Chocolat.

- Jennifer Hudson looks like a solid frontrunner in Supporting Actress, but what of Supporting Actor? It seems to me the only acting category that might produce a surprising result. Nicholson doesn't really need a fourth award, and Eddie Murphy's getting a few "he's terrible" pans along with raves. (Plus he his this thing called Norbit coming out during voting.) I'd be suggesting Adam Beach as the potential upsetter, but Flags didn't pan out. I've considered Alan Arkin, since he's a veteran character actor who's never won, but Little Miss Sunshine seems to be derailing in terms of Oscar prospects. So now I'm keeping my eye on two other guys: Mark Wahlberg and Michael Sheen.

[the critic]

PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
The Queen

DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Paul Grengrass - United 93

ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Edward Norton - The Painted Veil
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Forest Withaker - The Last King of Scotland

ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland
Jackie Earl Haley - Little Children
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Michael Sheen - The Queen

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Riko Kikuchi - Babel
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Volver

ADAPTED SCREEENPLAY
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Flushed Away
Happy Feet
Monster House
Over the Hedge

[Mister Tee]

Something I thought about last night: If the Oscars end up going with the conventional wisdom line-up of Cruz, Dench, Mirren, Streep, and Winslet for Best Actress, this will be the first time in [I'm not sure how long] that all of the performances are 'modern-day'. Only Mirren's could possibly be noted as a historical performance (from the not-so-distant past 1997) while the other four characters are all clearly living in the present day. Trivia nuts, when was the last time this happened?

My quick/unverified scan says 1) 1986 would be the last time, presuming you count Peggy Sue Got Married as present-day (since that's where it "starts") and don't discount Aliens because it's set in the future; 2) apart from that, 1983 -- though Silkwood, like The Queen, is set in the recent past.

[flipp525]

Something I thought about last night: If the Oscars end up going with the conventional wisdom line-up of Cruz, Dench, Mirren, Streep, and Winslet for Best Actress, this will be the first time in [I'm not sure how long] that all of the performances are 'modern-day'. Only Mirren's could possibly be noted as a historical performance (from the not-so-distant past 1997) while the other four characters are all clearly living in the present day. Trivia nuts, when was the last time this happened?

[Movielover]

Picture:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
United 93

Director:
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
Leonardo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Actress:
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Supporting Actor:
Adam Beach (Flags of Our Fathers)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Brad Pitt (Babel)
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Supporting Actress:
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration)

Original Screenplay:
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93

Adapted Screenplay:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Little Children
Thank You For Smoking