Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:37 pm
Now, let's put WGA in perspective. For the last 7 years, only three of their Original Screenplay nominees carried over to the Oscars. Before that was a 4-year streak with 4-for-5. 1996 was the last time there was an exact duplication, with 1991, '92 and '93 as the only other times since 1977 that has occurred. Four used to be more common in Original Screenplay until these last 7 years, so either we'll see a similar fate this year (in which case, I wouldn't doubt if The Visitor and Burn After Reading failed to make the list and were replaced by WALL-E and Happy-Go-Lucky). Then again, what about Rachel Getting Married? Could it replace The Wrestler? or will it make it in ahead of Vicky Cristina Barcelona. There are too many films in this category to really say for sure who goes through.
Adapted Screenplay has been less static with a mostly four-for-five correlation in the last 20 years with 1990 and 2005 as the only perfect matches they've had. 3-out-of-5 has occurred a little more frequently in 1993, '96 and '01 in addition to the last two years.
So, it's more common to have 4-out-of-5 which certainly works against Dark Knight simply because I can't imagine any of the other four (maybe Doubt) being dropped. But what to take its place? Revolutionary Road and The Reader might have seemed like strong contenders had their guild support not been so abhorrently weak. The Scripters have a terrible track record matching up to the Oscars, but they picked Iron Man over Dark Knight, so they obviously have no bias against "super hero" movies. But even they can't help in this situation as they nommed both The Reader and Revolutionary Road and left out both Doubt and Frost/Nixon, the latter of which I'm seeing a strong chance at nomination.
I would then have to go by the critics which seem to favor Revolutionary Road far more than The Reader. None of the critics groups cited either film for a win, The Reader made it in at the Globes, but not at the Broadcast Critics (Where Road wasn't a nominee either) and both got Satellite nominations.
So, gut instinct would suggest Revolutionary Road over The Dark Knight, but if the Globes do pick The Reader as the winner, then it could make for a chance of Dark Knight getting a nom after all.
Adapted Screenplay has been less static with a mostly four-for-five correlation in the last 20 years with 1990 and 2005 as the only perfect matches they've had. 3-out-of-5 has occurred a little more frequently in 1993, '96 and '01 in addition to the last two years.
So, it's more common to have 4-out-of-5 which certainly works against Dark Knight simply because I can't imagine any of the other four (maybe Doubt) being dropped. But what to take its place? Revolutionary Road and The Reader might have seemed like strong contenders had their guild support not been so abhorrently weak. The Scripters have a terrible track record matching up to the Oscars, but they picked Iron Man over Dark Knight, so they obviously have no bias against "super hero" movies. But even they can't help in this situation as they nommed both The Reader and Revolutionary Road and left out both Doubt and Frost/Nixon, the latter of which I'm seeing a strong chance at nomination.
I would then have to go by the critics which seem to favor Revolutionary Road far more than The Reader. None of the critics groups cited either film for a win, The Reader made it in at the Globes, but not at the Broadcast Critics (Where Road wasn't a nominee either) and both got Satellite nominations.
So, gut instinct would suggest Revolutionary Road over The Dark Knight, but if the Globes do pick The Reader as the winner, then it could make for a chance of Dark Knight getting a nom after all.