Last Predictions of the Year

[Big Magilla]

I got my idea from the AWFJ (Alliance of Women Film Journalists) Nominations which came out after my 12/21 predictions which I just posted in a separate thread.

Aside from nominating Jamie Lee Curtis and Bill Nighy for their 2022 films, their nominations are pretty much along the lines of everyone else's except in Best Actress which surprised me because they didn't nominate Mulligan though they nominated her film in other categories.
Their nominees are Gladstone, Hüller, Lee, Robbie, and Stone, which is identical to my list except for Robbie in lieu of Mulligan.

I thought that if women could give her performance the cold shoulder, then her chances may not be as strong as everyone seems to think they are. Aside from the Thanksgiving Day Parade scene and her illness/death scenes near the end of the film, she isn't given a lot to do other than play the standard supportive wife.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I'm tempted to replace Mulligan with Margot Robbie in my predictions, but I'm not quite ready to do that.

I could see Maestro not making the cut but I'd be surprised if that happened to Mulligan. She's a two-time nominee and this is as good as I've ever seen her. I think Sandra Huller and Greta Lee are more vulnerable with Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman in the wings. I'm currently predicting Margot Robbie but I'm not at all sold on her chances. She's wonderful but I think it's very easy to take her perfection for granted. It just seems like the film is going to crossover in a big way.

You wrote: "I feel bad for Annette Bening but like DiCaprio and Domingo; this isn’t her year. Any one of these five could win although the smart money is Gladstone."

You could be right but I don't think Huller, Lee, or Mulligan are going to win. I think the race is pretty firmly Lily Gladstone vs. Emma Stone with Gladstone out in ahead.

[Big Magilla]

I'm tempted to replace Mulligan with Margot Robbie in my predictions, but I'm not quite ready to do that.

[Sabin]

Mostly agree.

Best Picture
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
--Welcome to the time of year where 40% of the lineup are question mark, where everything has become a game of tea leaf reading: the Golden Globes, the AFI, even Obama's list. Did you know there's always 3-4 nominees in his list? I could be wrong but I feel like uncertainty about 40% of the list is pretty common this time of year. I'm going with The Color Purple and Maestro for the same reason Women Talking got in last year (and why it made Obama's list): because Hollywood is a small place and having your film produced by big names matters. I'm going with May December because even if it's divisive, it's being talked about. And I'm going with The Zone of Interest because I suspect both sides of this horrible Middle East conflict one is on, it registers timely and powerfully. In a few weeks, any of these could trade places with Air, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Iron Claw (with an "A" Cinemascore, I don't think that one's out), or even Saltburn.

Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
--I don't trust my instincts with Oscars anymore. I remember thinking Green Book wasn't emotionally affecting enough to go all the way as a script. American Fiction is just a weird film that doesn't deliver what it promises (from the trailer at least). Beyond that, Oscar voters are just weird about actors playing writers. I see nothing but parallels between Wright and Michael Douglas (Wonder Boys) and Paul Giamatti (Sideways).

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor
Willem DaFoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
--Tee's method probably favors DaFoe over Melton due to Willem DaFoe's perennial candidacy, that he's in stronger Best Picture contender, and that Melton is newly graduated from television. He's on stronger ground than Sterling K. Brown and Dominic Sessa.

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
America Ferrara, Barbie
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
--same thing. Race still isn't in shape for me. Danielle Brooks has The Color Purple but she's pretty new and I wasn't convinced I had seen acting nominations in the film. I think what works in Pike's favor is despite being divisive Saltburn seems like a hot ticket all around. Unlike Nyad or Ferrari, I think there's interest in it. That only benefits Pike. Haven't seen All of Us Strangers yet but Foy could join Andrew Scott.

[Big Magilla]

2023 Oscar Predictions – Late December

I don’t see a lot changing between now and the Golden Globes, so this could be it in the top six categories until the Oscar nominations come out.

Best Picture

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

All of Us Strangers could be nominated in place of either American Fiction or Maestro, but I don’t see anything else changing unless one of the Christmas Day releases, most likely either Ferrari or The Color Purple, develops legs.

Best Directing
Barbie – Greta Gerwig
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Past Lives - Celine Song
Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos

This is still a volatile category so other than Scorsese or Nolan; I wouldn’t count anyone as safe.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

I like DiCaprio and Domingo as much as anyone, but neither one has a chance of winning this year. Any one of these five could and will.

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things

I feel bad for Annette Bening but like DiCaprio and Domingo; this isn’t her year. Any one of these five could win although the smart money is Gladstone.

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Charles Melton – May December
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

As Leo goes, so does Bobby. De Niro has no chance of winning this year. It’s going to be Downey, Gosling, Melton, or Ruffalo. Sessa could be overtaken by either Sterling K. Brown or Paul Mescal for the fifth slot.

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Julianne Moore – May December
Rosamund Pike - Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

There’s still a chance for either Penélope Cruz or Claire Foy to make it in, but this seems pretty much set now.