Kicking Off the Fall Season

[anonymous1980]

-You have a pretty weak showing for Poor Things. I'd like to know your reason why.

It's just pure speculation, really. Among the 10 I'm predicting, I'm probably fairly somewhat certain/confident of maybe 6 or 7 of them. Poor Things has yet to be officially seen and based on what I know about the plot and the teasers I've seen, this movie is gonna be WEIRD. Weird movies need to have rave reviews AND be somewhat of a mainstream hit in order for the Academy to pay attention to them. So it's just a wait and see for me.

-I don't see Across the Spider-Verse getting an adapted screenplay nomination. It probably goes to The Killer, Poor Things, or Air.

I believe Air is an ORIGINAL screenplay.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I think Damon might be analogous to Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards: another guy gets all the initial supporting actor heat (because he's a pretty central character), but gradually people notice, hey, what about this guy, who's got a quite significant role in this big-deal movie, and nails every scene? Why not nominate him, too? (The only negative is how competitive the category seems to be -- but it was in 2017, as well, to Michael Stuhlbarg's everlasting regret.)

And I suppose Armie Hammer's as well. I remained hopeful about Stuhlbarg's chances until the bitter end.

Mister Tee wrote
I'd say Robbie's Golden Globe fate (in Comedy/Musical) rides or dies with how The Color Purple/Fantasia is received. Like you, I remain dubious on a first-time director's big splashy musical (the blogger community ALWAYS overhypes such things). If it clicks, Fantasia probably takes it; if not, Robbie should have smooth sailing.

I don't really track plays. I guess the most recent revival did quite well at the Tony's so it has a fanbase. When I saw the film originally, it never crossed my mind "This should be a musical." The best thing working in Blitz Bazawule's favor is, I mean, he's a Guggenheim fellow. Someone thinks he's a genius. There's a producing team of Quincy Jones, Steven Spielberg, and Oprah Winfrey. The first two are fine. The last one has a very mixed record. Selma and Precious turned out fine. I wasn't much of a fan of either film but they should undeniably be counted as successes.

I guess for all the talk about how woke the Academy is, I don't really see it borne out in the actual nominees. I think at the end of the day they have to like the film. I think The Color Purple benefits from fewer films on the schedule but I think it's going to have a lot of eyes on it for how it performs at the box office. It cost something like $100 mil. Does anyone think it's going to make that?

Mister Tee wrote
Agree on Keoghan (unless all the buzz is undone by critic reaction next weekend), but not at DiCaprio's expense. I've gone broke in the past betting against DiCaprio (for Blood Diamond, Wolf, Hollywood), and, this time out, he seems to be getting genuinely must-nominate reviews. Of anonymous' list, I'd say Domingo is at this moment a pig in a poke -- bloggers want him badly, but there's no word at all yet about the film or performance quality. And, while Maestro seems like a big role, screening reaction has been rather mixed about the film.

I'm out of the conversation on all of this. DiCaprio has been getting must nominate reviews?

All the ones I've seen have focused on Gladstone. Looking at the trailer, it looks like he's done this kind of thing before.

Agree on Domingo but he's going to have a big year and he's certainly due for a spotlight moment.

There are screening reactions to Maestro? With all the (silly IMO) daggers out for the film, if it's mixed, that drops its chances for everyone. It's clear that so far people inside Hollywood aren't entirely warmed to the idea of actor-turned-director Bradley Cooper.

Mister Tee wrote
I think Magaro is the softest of Past Lives' potential categories (apart from song, which, until anonymous cited it it here, hadn't even crossed my mind). But I also think you're letting your own less-than-avid response to the movie cloud your judgment on its overall prospects. This is a film wildly raved by both critics and audiences (90s on Rotten Tomatoes for both, 90s for critics and 8.1 for audiences on the tougher Metacritic). For a film mostly in Korean, its grosses are massive -- not, obviously, at Parasite level, but well beyond most other subtitled efforts of recent decades. I'd be stunned if an Academy -- very much disposed to foreign-language efforts in recent years -- didn't go all in on it.

I think you're right that my bias does affect my judgement but how do you define all in? Best Picture and Original Screenplay? Sure. At this point, probably. Director? Going for a first-timer is always a roll of the dice. Actress? Maybe, depends on the competition. I already listed Magaro. What else? Unless it turns up for Cinematography and Editing (the latter, I think is very deserved), it's a film with a low ceiling.

Mister Tee wrote
For what it's worth, Jordan Ruimy (a right-wing toad, but with decent sources) says word he's heard on Ferrari is "mixed". He says same for Priscilla, Maestro, The Iron Claw, The Royal Hotel, and Dumb Money.

According to him, the films with best advance word -- beyond the already-cited Holdovers and Saltburn -- are Poor Things (especially for Emma Stone), The Killer, and (the sleeper) Haigh's All of Us Strangers.

Well, I'd much rather these films be hits than the ones cited above. I'll factor that into my predictions. Poor Things is a film I'm especially interested in. That trailer looks bananas.

I just saw the trailer for All of Us Strangers. Andrew Haigh is quite a good filmmaker who is due for a breakout moment.

Something I didn't know until now. Did you know he was an apprentice editor on a bunch of Ridley Scott films including Gladiator and Black Hawk Down?

[Mister Tee]

some NGNG picks (Matt Damon for Oppenheimer).

I think Damon might be analogous to Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards: another guy gets all the initial supporting actor heat (because he's a pretty central character), but gradually people notice, hey, what about this guy, who's got a quite significant role in this big-deal movie, and nails every scene? Why not nominate him, too? (The only negative is how competitive the category seems to be -- but it was in 2017, as well, to Michael Stuhlbarg's everlasting regret.)

-I think Greta Gerwig is going to make it in for Best Director. ... I also think Margot Robbie gets in for Barbie. At this point, I think she's probably the favorite for the Golden Globes.

Gerwig is an interesting case. Her career profile makes her someone apt to be director-nominated (she's been a subject of online-rage for being passed over in the past), but her film -- big commercial hit, seen more as entertainment than significant art -- is the sort that has been picture/not director-prone going back to Jaws. I could honestly live with either outcome: she's not undeserving, but neither is she undeniable.

I'd say Robbie's Golden Globe fate (in Comedy/Musical) rides or dies with how The Color Purple/Fantasia is received. Like you, I remain dubious on a first-time director's big splashy musical (the blogger community ALWAYS overhypes such things). If it clicks, Fantasia probably takes it; if not, Robbie should have smooth sailing.

I would probably put Barry. Keoghan in for Saltburn over DiCaprio for Killers.

Agree on Keoghan (unless all the buzz is undone by critic reaction next weekend), but not at DiCaprio's expense. I've gone broke in the past betting against DiCaprio (for Blood Diamond, Wolf, Hollywood), and, this time out, he seems to be getting genuinely must-nominate reviews. Of anonymous' list, I'd say Domingo is at this moment a pig in a poke -- bloggers want him badly, but there's no word at all yet about the film or performance quality. And, while Maestro seems like a big role, screening reaction has been rather mixed about the film.

-
-I'm interested about whether A24 moves on from Past Lives to The Zone of Interest. I'm not one of the film's biggest fans but five nominations seems overly bullish. I'm slowly coming around to John Magaro as a nominee although I'm still skeptical. He plays that part about as well as anyone could. I see him taking critic's prizes but not a Golden Globe or SAG nomination.

I think Magaro is the softest of Past Lives' potential categories (apart from song, which, until anonymous cited it it here, hadn't even crossed my mind). But I also think you're letting your own less-than-avid response to the movie cloud your judgment on its overall prospects. This is a film wildly raved by both critics and audiences (90s on Rotten Tomatoes for both, 90s for critics and 8.1 for audiences on the tougher Metacritic). For a film mostly in Korean, its grosses are massive -- not, obviously, at Parasite level, but well beyond most other subtitled efforts of recent decades. I'd be stunned if an Academy -- very much disposed to foreign-language efforts in recent years -- didn't go all in on it.

-I like how nobody is even starting to take Michael Mann's new film seriously.

For what it's worth, Jordan Ruimy (a right-wing toad, but with decent sources) says word he's heard on Ferrari is "mixed". He says same for Priscilla, Maestro, The Iron Claw, The Royal Hotel, and Dumb Money.

According to him, the films with best advance word -- beyond the already-cited Holdovers and Saltburn -- are Poor Things (especially for Emma Stone), The Killer, and (the sleeper) Haigh's All of Us Strangers.

[Sabin]

anonymous 1980 wrote
With that piece of news, let me post my pre-fall festival predictions:

I'll post mine before TIFF / Venice. Good predictions overall, a mix of what's out there and some NGNG picks (Matt Damon for Oppenheimer). General thoughts:

-I think Greta Gerwig is going to make it in for Best Director. She's a previous Best Director nominee, was probably close in the running for Little Women, and the film has such a unique sensibility. Barbie and Oppenheimer clear double digit nominations. I also think Barbie ends up as Original, although I love a world where they're both up for adapted and those two hives go to war. I also think Margot Robbie gets in for Barbie. At this point, I think she's probably the favorite for the Golden Globes.

-Generally with you on The Holdovers and The Killers of the Flower Moon although I would probably put Barry. Keoghan in for Saltburn over DiCaprio for Killers.

-Best Picture nominations for Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest seems overly Cannes friendly for the Academy but who knows?

-Not sold yet on The Color Purple. The director is very new. I just feel like I've been down this road of December musicals we get hyped about and then they disappoint.

-I'm interested about whether A24 moves on from Past Lives to The Zone of Interest. I'm not one of the film's biggest fans but five nominations seems overly bullish. I'm slowly coming around to John Magaro as a nominee although I'm still skeptical. He plays that part about as well as anyone could. I see him taking critic's prizes but not a Golden Globe or SAG nomination.

-You have a pretty weak showing for Poor Things. I'd like to know your reason why.

-I don't see Across the Spider-Verse getting an adapted screenplay nomination. It probably goes to The Killer, Poor Things, or Air.

-I'm kind of wondering if Dumb Money might have some juice in it. Craig Gillespe isn't my favorite director right now but his career is definitely on an upswing. Maybe a screenplay. nomination or something for America Ferrera.

-I like how nobody is even starting to take Michael Mann's new film seriously. Reasons to be bullish? Pietro Scalia is editing it. Erik Messerschmidt shot it (as well as The Killer this year). Don't know what this means but the script has been bouncing around for so long that the screenwriter died back in 2009.

Mister Tee wrote
This baffles me. Dune, of all Fall releases, is the most pre-sold, to all those anxious to see how the story turns out. The Barbenheimer thing makes clear audiences are happy to go back to theatres right now. This strikes me as dumb corporate timidity.

I now officially have no idea what will win visual effects this year. Some people are touting Oppenheimer, but the occasional brainwave-collage didn't strike me as that impressive.

It probably goes to Oppenheimer. We've seen Interstellar beat Guardians of the Galaxy and whatever Planet of the Apes movie was out that year, as well as First Man triumphing over Infinity War despite Thanos feeling as real as any CGI character I've ever seen. Maybe Napoleon when we see it. Ridley Scott has a track history of winning for this kind of achievement. I'd push for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It's a gorgeous film with plenty of new sights, and that franchise deserves something for introducing us to Rocket and Groot.

[Reza]

What about the remake of Long Day's Journey into Night with Ed Harris and Jessica Lange.....any chance it could get in this year?

[Big Magilla]

And, down the road, there’ll be Joaquin Phoenix tackling Napoleon under Ridley Scott’s tutelage. (Interesting: with all the times Mr. Bonaparte has been portrayed on screen -– by many major actors -– he’s never to date yielded an Oscar nomination.)

Charles Boyer received the first of his four Best Actor Oscar nominations for playing Napoleon Bonaparte opposite Greta Garbo in Conquest (1937).

Whenever I don't do the full laborious check, I get burnt. (I skipped it because I'd already gone the deep route to make sure I was right about 1976 being the last time with two foreign-language actresses.)

It's funny that the one time a Napoleon was nominated, he wasn't the film's central character.

Besides which Boyer was so much better that year in History Is Made at Night and Mayerling.

[Big Magilla]

Dune 2 has officially been pushed to Spring 2024.

This baffles me. Dune, of all Fall releases, is the most pre-sold, to all those anxious to see how the story turns out. The Barbenheimer thing makes clear audiences are happy to go back to theatres right now. This strikes me as dumb corporate timidity.

I now officially have no idea what will win visual effects this year. Some people are touting Oppenheimer, but the occasional brainwave-collage didn't strike me as that impressive.

I think the reason it was pushed back is due to the lack of product due to the writers and actors strikes. Warner Bros. has enough product to get through the end of the year, but nothing major beyond that.

[Big Magilla]

I'm still not convinced that Barbie will be deemed adapted. Movies based on real or imaginary people like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny that are not based on previously published works are considered original. Why should something based on toys be considered adapted?

In my research for my article on Betty Comden for Awards Landscape, I was reminded that The Band Wagon for which she and Adolph Green were Oscar nominated was for Original Story and Screenplay not adaptation even though it was adapted from the 1931 Broadway musical with Fred and Adele Astaire albeit with a completely new story.

[anonymous1980]

With that piece of news, let me post my pre-fall festival predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon) David Thion and Marie-Ange Luciani, producers.

Barbie (Warner Bros.) David Heyman, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner and Margot Robbie, producers.

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) Scott Sanders and Oprah Winfrey, producers.

The Holdovers (Focus Features) David Hemingson and Mark Johnson, producers.

Killers of the Flower Moon (AppleTV+) Martin Scorsese, Daniel Lupi and Bradley Thomas, producers.

Maestro (Netflix) Bradley Cooper, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers.

Oppenheimer (Universal) Christopher Nolan, Charles Roven and Emma Thomas, producers.

Past Lives (A24) Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler and David Hinojosa, producers.

Saltburn (Amazon) Tom Ackerley, Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara and Margot Robbie, producers.

The Zone of Interest (A24) Ewa Puszczynska and James Wilson, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Celine Song, Past Lives
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon, Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
John Magaro, Past Lives

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall
written by Arthur Harari and Justine Triet

The Holdovers
written by David Hemingson

Maestro
written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer

Past Lives
written by Celine Song

Saltburn
written by Emerald Fennell

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Barbie
written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
based on the toys by MATTEL.

Killers of the Flower Moon
screenplay by Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth
based on the book Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI by David Grann.

Oppenheimer
screenplay by Christopher Nolan
based on the book American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin.

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
screenplay by Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Dave Callaham
based on the Marvel comics.

The Zone of Interest
screenplay by Jonathan Glazer
based on the novel by Martin Amis.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and The Heron (Studio Ghibli) Hayao Miyazaki
Elemental (Pixar) Peter Sohn
Nimona (Netflix) Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) Joaquim dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson
Wish (Disney) Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dan Laustsen, The Color Purple
Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Matthew Libatique, Maestro
Hoyte von Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Linus Sandgren, Saltburn

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Nick Houy, Barbie
Kirk Baxter, The Killer
Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
Michelle Tesoro, Maestro
Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sarah Greenwood (production design) & Katie Spencer (set decoration), Barbie
Paul D. Austerberry (production design) & Larry Dias (set decoration), The Color Purple
Jack Fisk (production design) & Adam Willis (set decoration), Killers of the Flower Moon
Ruth de Jong (production design) & Claire Kaufman and Adam Willis (set decoration), Oppenheimer
Shona Heath and James Price (production design) & Zsuzsa Mihalek (set decoration), Poor Things

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Killer
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexandre Desplat, Nyad
Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Gonna Be You", 80 for Brady; music & lyrics by Diane Warren
"I'm Just Ken", Barbie; music & lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
"Quiet Eyes", Past Lives; music & lyrics by Sharon von Etten and Zachary Dawes
"This Wish", Wish; music & lyrics by Julia Michaels
"What Was I Made For?", Barbie; music & lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Color Purple
Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
Holly Waddington, Poor Things
Lindy Hemming, Wonka

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Marvels
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Wonka

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
Maestro
Poor Things
Wonka

[Mister Tee]

Dune 2 has officially been pushed to Spring 2024.

This baffles me. Dune, of all Fall releases, is the most pre-sold, to all those anxious to see how the story turns out. The Barbenheimer thing makes clear audiences are happy to go back to theatres right now. This strikes me as dumb corporate timidity.

I now officially have no idea what will win visual effects this year. Some people are touting Oppenheimer, but the occasional brainwave-collage didn't strike me as that impressive.

[Mister Tee]

And, down the road, there’ll be Joaquin Phoenix tackling Napoleon under Ridley Scott’s tutelage. (Interesting: with all the times Mr. Bonaparte has been portrayed on screen -– by many major actors -– he’s never to date yielded an Oscar nomination.)

Charles Boyer received the first of his four Best Actor Oscar nominations for playing Napoleon Bonaparte opposite Greta Garbo in Conquest (1937).

Whenever I don't do the full laborious check, I get burnt. (I skipped it because I'd already gone the deep route to make sure I was right about 1976 being the last time with two foreign-language actresses.)

It's funny that the one time a Napoleon was nominated, he wasn't the film's central character.

[Sabin]

Dune 2 has officially been pushed to Spring 2024.

[Sabin]

I don't care what anyone says, this post announces the arrival of the Oscar season. I mostly appreciate your spotlighting The Killer. I've barely been tracking that film, which is ridiculous. It's David Fincher re-teaming with Andrew Kevin Walker (Seven, Fight Club). The only area of concern is Netflix which has a pretty light grip of the creative reigns. That didn't work out (IMO) for Mank... but it did get what? Ten nominations? But what makes me most excited about the project is that I generally think Fincher does pretty well with this kind of material, where he can just focus on mood, atmosphere, and set-pieces. Here's hoping it's something special.

The biggest question mark for me is probably Poor Things. Yorgos Lanthimos is such an exciting filmmaker who seems to be a favorite for actors to work with. He keeps working with the same people again and again. Half the cast of Poor Things is coming back for his next film too. This concept sounds fascinating but it also sounds like it could really go in either direction: folly or masterpiece. So, I looked at The Favourite and I asked myself why did that film crossover with Academy voters so well? I'm not asking why "The Favourite and not his other films?" But what was it about that film that made it so accessible. It has a lot of areas of interest, but at the end of the day, it's a film about a pretty basic dramatic question that they got audiences to care about: who's going to be "The Favourite." You watch the film to find out the answer and everything else in the film basically supports that strong thread. (reason #213 why it should've won Best Screenplay over Green Book). I don't know much about the source material but if it's got something like that going for it, it'll probably do well.

[Big Magilla]

And, down the road, there’ll be Joaquin Phoenix tackling Napoleon under Ridley Scott’s tutelage. (Interesting: with all the times Mr. Bonaparte has been portrayed on screen -– by many major actors -– he’s never to date yielded an Oscar nomination.)

Charles Boyer received the first of his four Best Actor Oscar nominations for playing Napoleon Bonaparte opposite Greta Garbo in Conquest (1937).

[Mister Tee]

I see I used to do posts under this title each year. Then COVID hit, and the fallout from that -– its crippling of the movie and Oscar business -– resulted in three years of my waiting for The Post-Festival Thread to make first observations on the race. I’m opting here to resume pre-2020 m.o., for two reasons: 1) I expect to be travelling the week post-Labor Day, so will be delayed writing up festival reaction; and 2) there’s so much to discuss already, I’m itching to jump into the fray. For the past two years, I’ve hoped/had hopes dashed for a classic/high-calibre Oscar competition. Knock wood, but it feels like we might be finally on our way toward one.

The reason for this is, mostly, the Barbenheimer thing -– a phenomenon I truly didn’t see coming. You can go back a ways on this board, find me groaning how suicidal Hollywood was, pitting its two most promising summer-titles-for-grownups against one another; I genuinely thought they’d cannibalize themselves. Instead –- miraculously -- the same-date release created a wild synergy, for that weekend and beyond: bringing both films to extravagant levels of commercial success; seemingly, in the process, ending older-audience-aversion-to-theatres that’s plagued the industry the past two years. It’s not as if these two films were underdogs coming from nowhere –- one’s the work of a director with a loyal audience comparable to Hitchcock/Spielberg in their heydays; the other’s centered on the toy-universe’s longest-lasting phenomenon. Even so, the level of success the two films have achieved is staggering. We can’t know for sure, till more smart-audience-films come along and achieve comparable success levels –- but, at this moment, I view this tandem performance as the most promising event the movie business has seen in a very long while.

I think both movies should easily be on the Oscar best picture ballot next January. They’re exactly what Oscar voters have been craving/missing over the past few years: well-reviewed movies that audiences love. Oppenheimer in particular checks every box to secure nominations across the board, but Barbie isn’t far behind, at least in terms of the best picture slate.

And they’re not the only reason this year’s Oscar race crackles, where none have since before we learned about social distancing and ZOOM meetings. Past Lives had already established itself as a major player, eliciting outstanding critical response and (by foreign-language standards) blockbuster grosses. Pre-2009, with a year of only five nominees, it might have missed best picture, been limited to actress/director/screenplay. But in this era, where overseas entries have been regularly crashing the best picture slate, I don’t see how it fails to score.

And even that’s not all. Though it’s jumping the gun a bit, since the film won’t be released till October, there’s no reason to doubt Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will join these others in the main category. The film has already run the gauntlet of major US critics and emerged with a stellar Metacritic score (currently 89, one tick above Oppenheimer), and it stars DiCaprio, who’s brought in big audiences for every collaboration with Scorsese. Killers is another film I could see inching up toward double-digit nominations. In fact, I’d say these four films noted here –- Oppenheimer, Barbie, Past Lives and Killers -– could well, among them, corral 35-40 of the 90 or so nominations available. When was the last time we had such an early-days situation? 1972, when The Godfather/Cabaret/Deliverance all debuted pre-September?

And, you know, there are other movies that aren’t exactly automatic dismissals. I mentioned, when talking about Air last Spring, that I thought, with its solid reviews and grosses, it would have easily notched a spot in any of the past three best picture vintages. That it now seems a deep long shot is further evidence of what an interesting year this is turning out. Some will also advocate for the latest Spider-verse film -- though I suspect that will be limited to the animated field (where it’s a big front-runner). And, lest we forget, there were other strong films at Cannes – Palme winner Anatomy of a Fall, Grand Prix awardee The Zone of Interest – which will certainly figure in critics’ voting, and may carry over to AMPAS.

And, in the first few days of September, we’ll hope to add to this field, with films screened at the assorted festivals, most notably Venice/Telluride. A pair of these –- Saltburn and The Holdovers -– come with sizzling buzz attached, which we’ll either confirm or deny when they play Telluride. Of the others, I’m most interested (by pedigree) in The Killer and Poor Things, but will also look forward to hearing about Ferrari, Hit Man, Priscilla and Maestro (though Priscilla’s advance word is unpromising, and Maestro is off to a stumbling start with that oh-so-Twitter nose brouhaha). And I’m open to smaller/less-heralded items like Haigh’s All of Us Strangers, Nichols’ The Bikeriders, Wolfe’s Rustin, and Nyad, Annette Bening’s latest bid for a best actress prize.

Later on, The NY Festival will bring (amidst a lot of repeaters) a Saoirse Ronan/Paul Mescal pairing, Foe, said to be based on an interesting novel (though with the uninspiring Garth Davis at the helm).

The slate after that is somewhat murky, with some studios still threatening to pull films. But, at least for the moment, Dune Part Two, Napoleon and The Color Purple are scheduled for release by Christmas. This should all add up to, at worst, an above-average best picture roster; maybe one of the best of recent years.

On to the performance categories.

Last year’s best actor slate was notably thin -– Nighy and Mescal did fine work, but in films that would likely been passed over in a strong vintage. This year seems unlikely to repeat that. It’s hard to imagine either Cillian Murphy or Leonardo DiCaprio being passed over for their heavyweight entries. Much of that hot buzz surrounding The Holdovers and Saltburn centers on their leading men, Paul Giammatti and Barry Keoghan -– either of whom could, from past Academy history, assemble a potential winner profile. Some major names are involved with those other festival offerings: Michael Fassbender in The Killer, Adam Driver in Ferrari, Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Paul Mescal has two entries -– Andrew Haigh’s movie along with the Davis film. Austin Butler has his chance to demonstrate Elvis wasn’t a one-off, if The Bikeriders connects. Colman Domingo has been inching his way into prominence, and Rustin gives him a front-and-center biopic to try and make the all-in leap. And, down the road, there’ll be Joaquin Phoenix tackling Napoleon under Ridley Scott’s tutelage. (Interesting: with all the times Mr. Bonaparte has been portrayed on screen -– by many major actors -– he’s never to date yielded an Oscar nomination.) A solid line-up, perhaps the best in several years, seems likely.

Best actress –- which in recent years has largely dwarfed its male counterpart –- seems a bit shakier. It’s not there aren’t contenders: Greta Lee/Past Lives and Margot Robbie/Barbie make solid cases for themselves, and, assuming she’s campaigned in lead (I’m not sure that’s set in stone), Lily Gladstone would seem certain for Killers of the Flower Moon. And Sandra Huller was highly hailed at Cannes for both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, suggesting she’s prime candidate for at least critics awards. (Note, though: it’s close to half a century since two foreign-language performances were nominated in a lead acting category.) And I suppose Natalie Portman is a candidate for May/December -– though I’m forever wary of how Todd Haynes films will perform with Oscar voters.

Honestly, none of those candidates feel like a plausible winner to me (the way several on the male side do). Possibly Gladstone could be narrative-d into a front-runner, but that’s pending the lead/support decision, and maybe not even then (though it worked for Olivia Colman). Because of this, there’ll be a lot of festival entrants I’ll be watching over these next weeks. The chief contenders:

Former winner Emma Stone will have the most high-profile vehicle, Poor Things -- but it remains to be seen if Lanthimos has permanently moved to Oscar-friendly status, or if he’ll slide back to “just too weird” territory.

Annette Bening, as noted, is pushing bio-pic Nyad. But she has a director untried outside of documentaries, and, according to the gossips at AwardsWorthy, some are alleging the late-in-life feat displayed wasn’t fully kosher –- i.e., blogger controversy, the bane of campaigns.

Suddenly there’s buzz that Carey Mulligan’s role is fully equal to Cooper’s in Maestro –- she’s even pictured alone on the first poster. Mulligan can certainly make a case for being Oscar-overdue. Might we have a Walk the Line scenario, where the bio subject’s wife wins the top prize while he falls short?

The role of Priscilla Presley via Sofia Coppola compels attention for Cailee Spaeny, though initial screening reactions aren’t especially promising.

Kate Winslet has a biopic called Lee, about a (new to me) World War II photographer, Lee Miller. The film has a first-time director, but it’s playing Toronto and, you know: it’s Kate Winslet -– so, attention must be paid.

No early buzz (positive or negative) to speak of, but a bunch of prominent actresses also have films playing the festivals, and one or more might pop: Rosamund Pike in Saltburn, Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders, Claire Foy in All of Us Strangers, and Saoirse Ronan in Foe.

And, late in the year, Fantasia Barrino will play Celie in the musicalized Color Purple. She’s an untested actress, to put it mildly, working with an equally green director, but the AwardsWorthy children have decided she’s the front-runner. Which suggests they’re as clueless about this category as I am.

Supporting contenders rarely fill in early, which makes this year’s stellar male roster-to-date all the more remarkable. Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling are close to indisputable nominees, and, by all reports, Robert DeNiro should join them for his Killer Moon work. Would anyone be surprised if John Magaro’s Past Lives work also made the cut? (He has the solid advantage of all his scenes being in English.) Imagine a supporting slate almost fully set before Labor Day. For precedent, I think you’d again have to go back to 1972, where three Godfathers and Joel Grey were already about locked in. Other candidates, we presume, will present themselves at the festivals, but I can’t say anyone jumps out at me as more likely to score than others. Perhaps someone else has an instinct or two?

Supporting actress is, by contrast, moribund at this point. Emily Blunt is, at this point, the only likely nominee, and I don’t think she’s a cinch -- without her testimony scene, I don’t think she’d make it at all, and even that is snipped so short it fails at giving her the big number the character wants. Lily Gladstone could, of course, join the group, and she’d be formidable, but that’s not how buzz is leaning. And Viola Davis could hold on, for Air. Of those upcoming, Da’Vine Joy Randolph –- whom many of us praised in Dolemite –- appears to have strong advance word. After that, it’s a mystery. One hopes some entries appear from the thicket of festival films, or from the late arrivals. (The AwardsWorthy folk are betting on the same two roles from the original Color Purple getting Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson nominated, but that remains to be seen.)

Under best director, I’d be stunned to see either of Scorsese or Nolan omitted. Greta Gerwig is another matter. Barbie is on-the-surface more lightweight than what’s typically nominated by this branch –- especially in this era of expanded rosters including many foreign-based directors. Greta Lee seems to me a more likely choice, though there may be room for both. There’s also the Cannes pair, Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer.

After that, from the festivals, you have a ton of previously-cited folk -– David Fincher, Alexander Payne, Emerald Fennell, Yorgos Lanthimos, Richard Linklater, Sofia Coppola, Michael Mann -– as well as first-time hopefuls Bradley Cooper, Andrew Haigh, Jeff Nichols and Garth Davis. Further down the road, three-time nominee Ridley Scott will return with Napoleon, and Denis Villeneuve will debut part two of Dune. Some at AwardsWorthy think he’ll get the Peter Jackson “we were waiting for you to finish it” treatment, but it may be too crowded a year for that.

Barbie’s chances under screenplay are, thanks to ten slots, greater than in directing, but it might depend on whether it’s deemed adapted or original (I could argue either way). Adapted appears it’ll be highly competitive, with both Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon seemingly locked, The Zone of Interest writers’ branch catnip (98 on Metacritic, classy source novel, plus the Holocaust) and a number of promising festival items –- The Killer, Poor Things, Ferrari, Priscilla, Hit Man, All of Us Strangers, Foe, The Bikeriders, Nyad. With, of course, Dune Part Two and The Color Purple to follow.

Celine Song’s Past Lives work easily leads the less-densely populated original for now. This is where Anatomy of a Fall will get placed (and likely cited). May December, if voters get past their Haynes-phobia, would also show here. If buzz is correct, Saltburn and The Holdovers should join the slate. And both Rustin and Maestro -– despite being just as much biopics as Oppenheimer or Ferrari –- somehow qualify there, too. So, it’s not like Barbie would be the only contender manipulating the system.

Below the line, all three big-ticket items could snap up multiple nominations –- Oppenheimer and Killers up and down the categories, Barbie minimally for production design, costumes, make-up and multiple songs. Of the films to come, Saltburn stills suggest opulence, Dune has already triumphed in techs, and Napoleon and The Color Purple also seem likely to draw design interest.

Animated feature, as noted above, is certainly led by the Spider-verse at the moment, with the Ninja Turtles and Elemental perhaps strong enough for nomination.

Okay, I’m exhausted. I offer this for the delectation and response of all.