PGA Nominations

[Okri]

Sorry Tee, I think Maverick takes it.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
But it's not majority rule, is it? They do the same preferential ballot as AMPAS, I thought.

You are correct. I had no idea.

Well, now I'm substantially more interested in assessing what ends up winning, especially considering this is the group that nominated Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Top Gun: Maverick.

[Mister Tee]

I think it'll be Everything Everywhere All At Once. Simple majority rules play to its strengths.

Outside shot it goes to Top Gun: Maverick.

But it's not majority rule, is it? They do the same preferential ballot as AMPAS, I thought.

[Sabin]

I think it'll be Everything Everywhere All At Once. Simple majority rules play to its strengths.

Outside shot it goes to Top Gun: Maverick.

[Mister Tee]

I really wish there were some way to skip the remaining run-up awards. Right now, we have a decent muddle in the majority of categories, but every one of these upcoming prizes will swing predictions one way or another. I'm recalling 1991, where I had thought from the outset that Silence of the Lambs was the logical best picture choice. Pundits of the day screamed a loud "No way!" -- until Demme took DGA, at which point they all swung around to predicting it. Nowadays, we have a DGA for practically every damn
category, and it's taken so much of the fun out of things.

As far as what PGA can do tonight:

Least interesting possible outcome: Everything Everywhere gets back on the horse, and rides to sweeping victory

Most interesting possible outcome: One of the other non-sequels wins. It's not likely to be TAR or Banshees, but The Fabelmans or Elvis would throw a wrench into things. (Elvis too ridiculous a possibility? Remind me, whose 8-nomination-film-without-director-or-screenplay won PGA in 2001?)

Worst possible interesting outcome: Top Gun 2, which would muddle things, but also put the fear of god into me, and the trade-off isn't worth it.

Everything Everywhere seems the bet, but this group might just come through for Spielberg.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
I'm not really sold on Black Panther in production design. Never have been. While the costumes are certainly very new and flashy, the production isn't...and then I remember Talokan and think maybe that's where it gets the nomination is for those unique creative details. Avatar's are mostly in the detail of the flora, fauna, and coral of the underwater landscape more than anything else. But you have the climactic battle sequences and the two boats, underwater sets, and it also makes sense.

I think some might also be sleeping on Everything Everywhere All at Once. While not as flashy as the costumes, there are a lot of unique sets and those set piece are a key element to the film's success, not just an environment in which the action takes place. That could help get it the nomination. It's more flashy. Then what about The Northman? I know that film has basically disappeared, but creating an entire Viking village seems like one of those feats the department loves. Did Power of the Dog, Lincoln, or There Will Be Blood have exciting and visually resplendent sets? Lincoln even won.

I don't disagree with you about Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I've gone back and forth on it.

Everything Everywhere All At Once is currently my sixth choice for Production Design and Costume Design. It does have a lot of both.

I'd probably cite The Northman in this category. I just think it's too under-seen and there are too many other more seen contenders that voters will be looking at.

[OscarGuy]

I'm not really sold on Black Panther in production design. Never have been. While the costumes are certainly very new and flashy, the production isn't...and then I remember Talokan and think maybe that's where it gets the nomination is for those unique creative details. Avatar's are mostly in the detail of the flora, fauna, and coral of the underwater landscape more than anything else. But you have the climactic battle sequences and the two boats, underwater sets, and it also makes sense.

I think some might also be sleeping on Everything Everywhere All at Once. While not as flashy as the costumes, there are a lot of unique sets and those set piece are a key element to the film's success, not just an environment in which the action takes place. That could help get it the nomination. It's more flashy. Then what about The Northman? I know that film has basically disappeared, but creating an entire Viking village seems like one of those feats the department loves. Did Power of the Dog, Lincoln, or There Will Be Blood have exciting and visually resplendent sets? Lincoln even won.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
I think what hurts Martin's chances is that while the costumes in Elvis are very flamboyant, is the production design really? What helped Martin the last two times was that the production design in those films was really sensational and Elvis doesn't seem like that kind of movie and I could easily see it missing out on the nomination altogether.

Agreed. I've gone back and forth on whether to even include Elvis in the nominees. What's kept it in there is that it's one of those movies that just feels like it has more production design than it does.

At this point, I think the likeliest nominees are:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will suffer from the fact that they're sequels that already won, and none of their new contributions really feel like triumphs of new production design. They can be honored elsewhere (certainly, Avatar; possibly Wakanda Forever).

Similarly, Babylon benefits from the fact that Damien Chazelle's last two films were nominated (First Man) or won (La La Land). And on paper, it sounds like a production design winner. The problem again is that in actuality it doesn't have a lot of big, memorable sets. What I end up remembering is the sound stage, the outdoor production, that party scene which looks like any number of Hollywood scenes.

The Fabelmans has a period design that is very well-integrated into every scene of the film. But it's an attention to detail that quietly impresses and doesn't astonish.

And everything you said about Elvis.

[OscarGuy]

I think the showiness of the Elvis costumes will probably carry the day. That said, I agree that Wakanda Forever's costumes are an improvement over the first film. And there was also a time when more costumes meant more people to win and no one will watch that opening funeral scene with all the unique and interesting designs all in a single color, white, and not say "wow." Add to that the entire batch of new costumes for everyone in Talokan and it could win again.

I think what hurts Martin's chances is that while the costumes in Elvis are very flamboyant, is the production design really? What helped Martin the last two times was that the production design in those films was really sensational and Elvis doesn't seem like that kind of movie and I could easily see it missing out on the nomination altogether.

[Reza]

Wakanda Forever has incredible costume design (especially for the Takalonians) but it already won.

I think the sequel will also win the Oscar. The costumes are incredible, more diverse and even more detailed than in the original. The film was shockingly boring (loved the original) but one couldn't look away from the screen as the costumes truly dazzled. In fact Basset's hats were more memorable than her performance.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Quick thought on the Production Design/Costume Design awards. Catherine Martin has been nominated only 6 times. She's won 4 times. Those four times were years she was nominated in both categories and thereby won both. Trends are made to be broken, but if Elvis is up in both, it's possible she'll win both again.

I think this is possible. If Austin Butler doesn't win, I've been wondering where Elvis might show it. It seems unlikely that it would win nothing. All Oscar season, I've been assuming that Babylon is the likeliest to take home Production and Costume Design but neither are remotely showstoppers. Currently, I have Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for Production and Costume, respectively. I originally thought that Avatar: The Way of Water was a sure thing to win Production Design much as the first film won but increasingly I'm wondering if the fact that most of it takes place either in the original location or out in the ocean will affect its chances. While everybody seems to agree that it's a stunning visual achievement, nobody seems to cite the oceanic huts as a marvel of ingenuity. Wakanda Forever has incredible costume design (especially for the Takalonians) but it already won.

[OscarGuy]

Quick thought on the Production Design/Costume Design awards. Catherine Martin has been nominated only 6 times. She's won 4 times. Those four times were years she was nominated in both categories and thereby won both. Trends are made to be broken, but if Elvis is up in both, it's possible she'll win both again.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I could see it - Spielberg missed out for Lincoln and WSS (but was nominated for best director for Bridge of Spies) and it wouldn't be super shocking for the Spielberg origin story to not ring as deeply with BAFTA.

Now it's my turn to look up and find out. Lincoln missed out on Best Director but it still got ten nominations, which is shy of the Academy's honoring the film with twelve but not by much. That was ten years ago though. West Side Story only got five nominations: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (win), Casting (win), Production Design, and Sound. It couldn't shoulder past Don't Look Up or Licorice Pizza into Best Film. If modern day BAFTA isn't enamored with Spielberg's recent career chapter, The Fabelmans really might miss out with this group.

Okri wrote
They aren't the fondest of the uber British indies - The Souvenir matched Aftersun's achievement of winning the yearly Sight and Sound poll and couldn't crack the British film line-up let alone the main stem (though it's been over-performing everywhere); Ken Loach got his first best film nomination in 2016 (!) - so I suspect that's as far as Living and Aftersun go. I also have doubts about Top Gun - BAFTA has been under enthusiastic about blockbuster type best picture nominees before (Black Panther, Mad Max)

I think you're right about Aftersun = The Souvenir.

Okri wrote
All Quiet on the Western Front is such a stealth attack film for me. That it showed up at BAFTA in something like costume design really suggests that people really like it. But I could also see it underperforming - is it going to make the top of a lot of ballots?

That's a good question. Another way of framing it is whether it's going to be higher on ballots than Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Babylon, or Women Talking? Looking at the three major groups that have come out, I think we can assume that The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick are pretty locked in. Elvis and The Whale are pretty safe IMO as well. This honestly strikes me as a year where they might ordinarily just go to eight but we have to go to ten.

So... I made a list of movies that made it onto a Best Picture lineup without a DGA, SAG, or PGA nomination in a field of ten (2021, 2010, and 2009). Those movies are Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley, Winter's Bone, The Blind Side, and A Serious Man. That's one or two a year. None of them got a BAFTA nomination for Best Film. The films that those films "replaced" on the PGA include Being the Ricardos, Tick Tick... Boom!, The Town, Invictus, Star Trek, and on the SAG they replaced Nine and House of Gucci. The first observation that leaps to my mind is that the latter films are pretty lightweight. Although I wouldn't call The Blind Side anything deep, the question is just "Do I believe voters could have it higher on their lists than Invictus, Nine, or Star Trek?" That's really the only question. The answer is, uh yeah. These films lost out to three independent/international films with presumably deeper affection (Drive My Car, Winter's Bone, A Serious Man) as well as Nightmare Alley, a strong tech achievement by a previous winner. The latter film would seem to describe something like Babylon although I'm not sold on Babylon as a production design-costume design foregone conclusion. Those elements aren't as flashy. It might actually describe Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I don't presume a lot of voters will have that film high on their list but it's possible that voters who were moved by the loss of Chadwick Boseman might rank it quite high, as well as costume designers. I should probably include Avatar: The Way of Water but I'm still not sure how loved it is across the board. I get a more admired sense. As for the independent/foreign film, that could mean All Quiet on the Western Front, but I'm still loathe to write off RRR or Triangle of Sadness. For me, no film benefits from this more than RRR. I just have such a hard time imagining it not at the top of ballots.

But in any event, I bet we're going to see one or two movies not up for any of these awards up for Best Picture.

Oh, the other movies to make Picture without a SAG, DGA, or PGA are The Father, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, Room, Selma, Philomena, Extremely Loud & Incredible Close, and The Tree of Life.

[Okri]

But Baz is their boy.

I was curious about this comment and .. holy shit. He got nominated for best screenplay for Moulin Rouge. I mean, I love(d) the movie twenty years ago, but best screenplay? He won best adapted screenplay in 1997 for Romeo and Juliet over LA fucking Confidential. It's been a long time, of course, but wow.

It could be The Fabelmans. It missed out on long list mentions for Best Director, any male acting nominations, and all down ballot besides Production Design. Only five listings.

I could see it - Spielberg missed out for Lincoln and WSS (but was nominated for best director for Bridge of Spies) and it wouldn't be super shocking for the Spielberg origin story to not ring as deeply with BAFTA.

All Quiet on the Western Front has sixteen, The Banshees of Inisherin has fourteen, Elvis and Everything Everywhere All At Once have twelve, Aftersun, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick have eight, Triangle of Sadness has seven, and Living has six.
...
I think Top Gun: Maverick will do quite well at the BAFTAs.

I'm also wondering if someone of us have been overrating All Quiet on the Western Front's chances based on how often it's showing up.

They aren't the fondest of the uber British indies - The Souvenir matched Aftersun's achievement of winning the yearly Sight and Sound poll and couldn't crack the British film line-up let alone the main stem (though it's been overperforming everywhere); Ken Loach got his first best film nomination in 2016 (!) - so I suspect that's as far as Living and Aftersun go. I also have doubts about Top Gun - BAFTA has been under enthusiastic about blockbuster type best picture nominees before (Black Panther, Mad Max)

All Quiet on the Western Front is such a stealth attack film for me. That it showed up at BAFTA in something like costume design really suggests that people really like it. But I could also see it underperforming - is it going to make the top of a lot of ballots?

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
I'm not saying Fabelmans won't be an issue for them. If they don't like Spielberg as a director (and it's clear they are heavily biased against him), then I wouldn't ever count Fabelmans as a sure thing with them, but the Academy loves Amerocentric, so it and Top Gun are sure things at the Oscars, but strugglers at the BAFTA. If Top Gun gets nominated at BAFTA, then we might be looking at the beginning of the end.

I think Top Gun: Maverick will do quite well at the BAFTAs.

I'm also wondering if someone of us have been overrating All Quiet on the Western Front's chances based on how often it's showing up.