Re: NBR Winners
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:26 pm
Sonic wrote about whether or not there's been an internet narrative but deleted it. I don't think that's exactly what's been happening. The strongest narrative has been centered around The Fabelmans, sight-unseen. But there's been rumblings that it could factor into the Best Picture race. Mister Tee has very much been dismissive of it, saying it's the same chatter that we hear about every blockbuster, whether it's The Dark Knight, Marvel, or what have you.
Ever since I saw Top Gun: Maverick, I've been somewhat positive on its chances both as a very likely nominee and having an outside chance at winning. It's massively successful, almost everybody likes it (good for a preferential ballot), but what sets it apart from other blockbusters is people speak about it in the industry as the movie that saved movies. This is a film that spiked to number one after its third or fourth month. That never happens. But more so, it managed to do that among countless franchise fatigues. And pretty much everybody likes it.
There's been a lot of conversation about Hollywood being too "woke" and insular and how they need to change. I'm not really going to delve into that (I do think it's a mistake to think of the industry as operating primarily as anything other than risk averse), but this is a movie with sensibilities that I think Hollywood will take marching orders from for a little bit.
It's also going into the awards season as an underdog. Not a bad place to be.
I'm not going to say it will win but in a weak year with no strong frontrunner, who knows?
Ever since I saw Top Gun: Maverick, I've been somewhat positive on its chances both as a very likely nominee and having an outside chance at winning. It's massively successful, almost everybody likes it (good for a preferential ballot), but what sets it apart from other blockbusters is people speak about it in the industry as the movie that saved movies. This is a film that spiked to number one after its third or fourth month. That never happens. But more so, it managed to do that among countless franchise fatigues. And pretty much everybody likes it.
There's been a lot of conversation about Hollywood being too "woke" and insular and how they need to change. I'm not really going to delve into that (I do think it's a mistake to think of the industry as operating primarily as anything other than risk averse), but this is a movie with sensibilities that I think Hollywood will take marching orders from for a little bit.
It's also going into the awards season as an underdog. Not a bad place to be.
I'm not going to say it will win but in a weak year with no strong frontrunner, who knows?
