Fall Predicitons

[Penelope]

Does anybody else think it's probable that Pitt would go Lead and Bernal Supporting so as to avoid competing with each other?

[Big Magilla]

Time for an update. No "locks" yet, but it's still looking good for four of my five early best picture predicitons:

Best Picture
Babel
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Children

Dreamgirls and Flags of Our Fathers are as to locks as any films not yet officially seen or reviewed. The Blood Diamond and The Queen are viable alternatives to any of the other three.

Best Actor
Richard Griffiths, The History Boys
Toby Jones, Infamous
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Patrick Wilson, Little Children

O'Toole and Whitaker are the only sure bets at thsi point, though Griffiths and JOnes look good. Wilson is vulnerable with both Leonardo DiCaprio (The Blood Diamond) and Christian Bale (Tescue Down) vying for the young dude vote. Richard Gere could receive career recognition for The Hoax.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Renee Zellweger, Miss Potter

Substituted Cruz for Streep. Mirren and Winslet are solid, with Cruz likely at this point. Dench and Zellweger are always threats.

Best Supporting Actor
Samuel Barnett, The History Boys
Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed

I hestiated to include Haley because I have a difficult time anticipating four acting nods from such a little film, but stranger thigns have happened. Brad Pitt, and not Gael Garcia Bernal as I had thought, seems to be the most likely male nominee for Babel though Adriana Barraza has been getting most of the critical kudos. In a tight race, he falls to sixth place.

Best Supporting Actress
Sandra Bullock Infamous
Jennifer Connelly, Little Children
Frances de la Tour, The History Boys
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Vanessa Redgrave, Venus

A wide open race with no clear front-runner. Adriana Barraza could be a contender as well.

Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Irarritu, Babel
Nichoals Hytner, The History Boys

I'm as convinced of this line-up as anyone can be this early in the game. I don't see the Academy nominating Scorsese for The Departed or anything else unless he has a really good chance of winning. I don't see that happeneing this year, which is why I still think he's a likely special award winner this year either for career achievement or more likely, his efforts on behalf of film preservation.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1158759942

[rudeboy]

I'm not saying she will win, but I'm saying she's not only going to be in the top five, but she will be one of the two or three frountrunners. And I can't imagine the Academy not honoring anyone from the cast with a Tony. It seems to me that de la Tour is the best option. People who thought Brokeback acting was good, step aside. The Londoners have come to Hollywood!

Frances de la Tour is a very familiar face in Britain, largely thanks to the enormously successful seventies sitcom Rising Damp in which she played Miss Jones, eccentric object of lecherous landlord Leonard Rossiter's desires. She fits into that class of British actor very much at home in the theatre, who onscreen can be exceptionally good or infuriatingly bad depending on the role. I'd stick Richard Griffiths in the same category.

I haven't seen The History Boys, but I have heard a radio broadcast of the play and both actors fit their roles like a glove. The boys, too - Barnett is the obvious standout (and has been justly rewarded in the British theatre awards) but the rest of the young cast were all remarkably good.

I have a very good feeling about the oscar prospects of this film. The critics are going to lap it up, and I suspect it's going to be a major contender in the top categories.

[dreaMaker]

Some of you guys think Ben Affleck is going to get a nod, especially after winning at the Venice Festival. I m clearly doubt it, actors and others don't respect Affleck that much.

[Movielover]

I know some people think it will be a walk in the park for Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls, but beware of Frances de la Tour. You non-New Yorkers have no idea what your stepping into when you walk into that movie theatre this winter. And for anyone who thinks Dreamgirls has an easy ride for Best Picture, I say to you "Beware The History Boys." I personally think The Departed will take both Best Picture and Best Director. I'm guessing Griffiths won't beat out O'Toole for Lead. Barnett, while magical, may not win for Supporting, but de la Tour is elegant, eloquent, sophisticated, and navigates her way through the Bennett script with suave and ease. She clearly has a love of language. It is like a great Shakespearean performance.

I'm not saying she will win, but I'm saying she's not only going to be in the top five, but she will be one of the two or three frountrunners. And I can't imagine the Academy not honoring anyone from the cast with a Tony. It seems to me that de la Tour is the best option. People who thought Brokeback acting was good, step aside. The Londoners have come to Hollywood!

[criddic3]

There are many movies that have been nominated without cast members, but I think that if Bernal is nominated with both director and picture it would be strange not to nominate Pitt. He is prominently displayed in all the magazine fall previews for the film and is a major part of the advertising for the film. Bernal is not going to be mentioned as much, and I just don't see a scenario where the film is that popular without Pitt getting swept along (unless he underwhelms voters in his role). I am hoping he is getting back into real-acting mode.

Has anyone else thought of another scenario for this year's Oscars? I'm thinking about the possible Ben Affleck nomination for Hollywoodland. Wouldn't it be amusing if Matt Damon also got nominated for one of his movies, in the lead category probably?

[VanHelsing]

If Pitt is in the running, he would most likely be supporting since Babel is essentially an ensemble piece. Well, he could be this year's Matt Dillon. But even if no one from Babel gets nominated, the film itself could still land a Best Picture nod. Example being Munich.

I think, based on current buzz, only Barraza & Kikuchi have the best chance. Pitt might still get in due to name recognition alone.

[criddic3]

I don't know if I can imagine all that support for "Babel" without a nod to Brad Pitt, who has the lead male role. Maybe if they nominate it for director and screenplay, but not picture. Otherwise, I think this could land him a second nomination.

[VanHelsing]

So far, the reviews for The Last King Of Scotland hardly mention Anderson. I really really think she has a small role. So I doubt she's in the running.

[Movielover]

Picture:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The History Boys

Director:
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers)
Nicholas Hytner (The History Boys)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Actor:
Leonardo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond)
Jude Law (Breaking and Entering)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Patrick Wilson (Little Children)

Actress:
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Supporting Actor:
Michael Caine (Children of Men)
Richard Griffiths (The History Boys)
Tobey Maguire (The Good German)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Brad Pitt (Babel)

Supporting Actress:
Juliette Binoche (Breaking and Entering)
Frances de la Tour (The History Boys)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Natalie Portman (Goya's Ghosts)

Original Screenplay:
Babel
The Good Shepherd
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Volver

Adapted Screenplay:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The History Boys

[Okri]

I think the misuse of the word "lock" is one of the more bothersome things about predicting the oscar race (right up there with "overdue")

[VanHelsing]

Reviews are in & some people are already saying that O'Toole is a lock!

[Penelope]

If this truly is his best role in years, then he has a shot at a nomination and as I said, if he's nominated he'll win against not especially strong competition.

On the one hand, I'm not entirely positive that O'Toole would win, but I do agree that this is shaping up as a rather bland year for Leading Actor--Richard Griffiths already appears to be the front-runner by default.

Conversely, the Lead Actress race is, for the first time in a long while, shaping up to be genuinely competitive: Meryl Streep, Helen Mirren and possibly Penelope Cruz and Kate Winslet are known quantities; add in Naomi Watts (Painted Veil), Cate Blanchett/Judi Dench (I'm assuming Notes on a Scandal is still skedded for release this year), Ashley Judd (Bug), Annette Bening (if she isn't Supporting in Running with Scissors) and maybe even Beyonce Knowles in Dreamgirls (tho I suspect it'll be Jennifer Hudson who gets the lion's share of acclaim and the resulting nomination for Supporting)...and we have a joyfully full slate of potential nominees, with, really, no clear front runner.

(These Turkish keyboards are a trip, let me tell you!)

[VanHelsing]

Yeah! Blame Bamigboye. But I feel both Alexander & Troy were horrible. Bloom was oh-so-wimpy in Troy yet all the fangirls kept drooling at him. I can't fathom!

[criddic3]

Did anyone notice that the review of O'Toole's Venus film refers to his performance in "Alexander"? He wasn't in that. He was in "Troy," a much better adventure movie.