ACE Eddie nominations
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anonymous1980
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OscarGuy
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The Dark Knight has always been weakest, IMO, but it could also be Frost/Nixon or, shock though it might be, Benjamin Button. Now, Milk could still get knocked out, but it's clear the guilds do love it, which means there is a stronger possibility that that love will carry through. The BAFTA nominations may be able to shed further light on the matter.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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rolotomasi99
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in all sincerity, you have no idea how happy it makes me feel to hear you say that.OscarGuy wrote:Look at the guild nominations. Milk is one of the safer bets now...
so oscarguy if one of the annointed five were to fall, do you think it would be THE DARK KNIGHT or one of the other three?
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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rolotomasi99
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i am just terrified the spoiler is going to be GRAN TORINO. if MILK (which people still do not feel is safe) is to fall, it should be to something somewhat good -- WALL-E, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, THE WRESTLER, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED -- rather than a piece of crap like GRAN TORINO.
i will hate eastwood with a passion i reserved only for paul haggis if he knocks MILK and van sant out of the picture and director line-ups. it might not be eastwood's fault, but he would be dead to me.
:p
i will hate eastwood with a passion i reserved only for paul haggis if he knocks MILK and van sant out of the picture and director line-ups. it might not be eastwood's fault, but he would be dead to me.
:p"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Mister Tee
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As BJ says, it took grit to oppose the predicted five in '97 as well, but I never thought Amistad was going to carry over to the Oscars, and had the rare going-against-the-crowd-and-winning satisfaction of predicting The Full Monty to replace it. (What I'd never have predicted -- and can't believe to this day -- was the Cattaneo directing nod)
Someone pointed out one of the other sites that in the three previous times PGA and DGA have been in agreement ('94, '97 and '06), the Oscar picture/director line-up has had not just single but mutiple dissents from that consensus -- Allen and Kieslowski as "lone" directors in '94 (though best picture did match), Full Monty as both film and director and Egoyan knocking off Brooks in '97, and Letters/Eastwood as well as Greengrass kicking out Dreamgirls and the Sunshine directors. So precedent, limited thought it be, would actually argue for greater surprise, especially under director.
And once again, Wall E is somehow shunted off here, under Musical/Comedy, so we can't know if it would have eliminated one of these five sure-shots in direct competition. It's as if the whole season were designed to provide no preview of Wall E's strength.
I may be mistaken, but it seems to me that, since the deadlines have been moved up to right after New Year's, the guild have come more into conformity with one another. And, the last two years anyway, AMPAS, with just that extra week or two to contemplate, has begun to diverge more from that early consensus (even down to screenplay, as in '06, when they cited late arrivals like Children of Men, Notes on a Scandal, Iwo Jima and Pan's Labyrinth which had been omitted by WGA).
Someone pointed out one of the other sites that in the three previous times PGA and DGA have been in agreement ('94, '97 and '06), the Oscar picture/director line-up has had not just single but mutiple dissents from that consensus -- Allen and Kieslowski as "lone" directors in '94 (though best picture did match), Full Monty as both film and director and Egoyan knocking off Brooks in '97, and Letters/Eastwood as well as Greengrass kicking out Dreamgirls and the Sunshine directors. So precedent, limited thought it be, would actually argue for greater surprise, especially under director.
And once again, Wall E is somehow shunted off here, under Musical/Comedy, so we can't know if it would have eliminated one of these five sure-shots in direct competition. It's as if the whole season were designed to provide no preview of Wall E's strength.
I may be mistaken, but it seems to me that, since the deadlines have been moved up to right after New Year's, the guild have come more into conformity with one another. And, the last two years anyway, AMPAS, with just that extra week or two to contemplate, has begun to diverge more from that early consensus (even down to screenplay, as in '06, when they cited late arrivals like Children of Men, Notes on a Scandal, Iwo Jima and Pan's Labyrinth which had been omitted by WGA).
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The Original BJ
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Also, in '97 the PGA and DGA nominees matched, and those were by far the most widely predicted Oscar five...and they were neither the Best Picture nor the Best Director Oscar nominees. I'm completely aware that consensus is likely against me, but when I read articles like today's LA Times piece which explain why everything but this year's Big Five didn't make it to the Oscar finish line...I have to wonder if the news/blogosphere have ever experienced an Oscar nomination morning before.
But I'm fully willing to admit I'm full of hot air should I eat crow next Thursday.
But I'm fully willing to admit I'm full of hot air should I eat crow next Thursday.
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The Original BJ
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Rolo, you very well may be right regarding this year's Best Picture line-up. (Though I agree with Mister Tee that we still haven't really seen the test of WALL-E's strength yet -- for instance, wouldn't it have been a slum-dunk Best Comedy/Musical Globe winner last night in the era when animated films were eligible for that prize?)
Still, just to to keep hanging on to my devil's advocate example...in 2006, the "annointed five" were all ACE nominees...and Letters From Iwo Jima was not.
It certainly wouldn't shock me if those WERE the five Oscar nominees at this point, I just don't think the case is closed just yet (especially given that two of those films weren't nominated for Globes...and one is still a comic book movie.)
Still, just to to keep hanging on to my devil's advocate example...in 2006, the "annointed five" were all ACE nominees...and Letters From Iwo Jima was not.
It certainly wouldn't shock me if those WERE the five Oscar nominees at this point, I just don't think the case is closed just yet (especially given that two of those films weren't nominated for Globes...and one is still a comic book movie.)
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rolotomasi99
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once again the same five films we have been seeing over and over again. i know the guilds and the academy are not exactly the same people, but it would just be very surprising to me if the oscar best picture line-up was not these same five films.rudeboy wrote:BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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OscarGuy
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Even with 10 nominees each year, ACE has a decent track record as far as matching to Oscars.
The last two years have been a relative exception with only 3 of their 10 nominees making it to Oscar's big night. The last time that few carried over was 1995 and before that '92 and quite frequently before that. As a frame of reference, they went to 10 nominees in 1999.
Twice since then have they sent 5 straight through: 2001 & 2004. The rest of the time it's been four of five.
Walk the Line, Ray, Chicago, Moulin Rouge & Almost Famous are the only Comedy/Musical nominees to carry over. And Almost Famous is the only strictly non-musical film in the bunch, though it has decidedly musical elements. So, in this list, Mamma Mia is the only one with a considerable chance to shift over to an Oscar nod, but if any film could break that tradition, it's WALL-E, but what this shows is WALL-E does have strong support from the guilds, but the caveat is this group (like others that have recognized WALL-E this year) also gave The Incredibles and Ratatouille to nominations.
From the Drama side, I find it surprising that both Frost/Nixon and Milk made the list here. It means strong possibilities for both as Best Picture nominees, but not as Editing nominees. In previous years, the ACE have generally selected at least one non-Best Picture contender to push towards Oscar recognition. In one of their two recent 5-for-5 years, 2004, one of the films was also a non-Best Picture contender (Collateral), though the 2001 list had all Best Pic contenders, Cold Mountain didn't pick up a Best Picture nod.
So, either they will be perfect 5-for-5 with Best Picture for the first time ever or one of those five is going to miss out on an Oscar nod. I would guess Frost/Nixon to be the weakest followed by Milk. But, if these are the nominees for Best Picture and one or more of them don't make Editing nominations at the Oscars, those films will be dead in the water, so they probably all hope this to be a director mirror year.
The last two years have been a relative exception with only 3 of their 10 nominees making it to Oscar's big night. The last time that few carried over was 1995 and before that '92 and quite frequently before that. As a frame of reference, they went to 10 nominees in 1999.
Twice since then have they sent 5 straight through: 2001 & 2004. The rest of the time it's been four of five.
Walk the Line, Ray, Chicago, Moulin Rouge & Almost Famous are the only Comedy/Musical nominees to carry over. And Almost Famous is the only strictly non-musical film in the bunch, though it has decidedly musical elements. So, in this list, Mamma Mia is the only one with a considerable chance to shift over to an Oscar nod, but if any film could break that tradition, it's WALL-E, but what this shows is WALL-E does have strong support from the guilds, but the caveat is this group (like others that have recognized WALL-E this year) also gave The Incredibles and Ratatouille to nominations.
From the Drama side, I find it surprising that both Frost/Nixon and Milk made the list here. It means strong possibilities for both as Best Picture nominees, but not as Editing nominees. In previous years, the ACE have generally selected at least one non-Best Picture contender to push towards Oscar recognition. In one of their two recent 5-for-5 years, 2004, one of the films was also a non-Best Picture contender (Collateral), though the 2001 list had all Best Pic contenders, Cold Mountain didn't pick up a Best Picture nod.
So, either they will be perfect 5-for-5 with Best Picture for the first time ever or one of those five is going to miss out on an Oscar nod. I would guess Frost/Nixon to be the weakest followed by Milk. But, if these are the nominees for Best Picture and one or more of them don't make Editing nominations at the Oscars, those films will be dead in the water, so they probably all hope this to be a director mirror year.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
From their website.
Same old, same old...
NOMINEES FOR 59TH ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith, A.C.E.
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
In Bruges - Jon Gregory, A.C.E.
Mama Mia - Leslie Walker
Tropic Thunder - Greg Hayden
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Alisa Lepselter
WALL-E - Stephen Schaffer
Same old, same old...
NOMINEES FOR 59TH ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith, A.C.E.
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
In Bruges - Jon Gregory, A.C.E.
Mama Mia - Leslie Walker
Tropic Thunder - Greg Hayden
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Alisa Lepselter
WALL-E - Stephen Schaffer