New Predictions

[OscarGuy]

I'll be posting my nominations this evening, probably.

[rolotomasi99]

here are my predictions. nominees are listed alphabetically in all categories, except acting nominees are listed in order of liklihood.


BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

DIRECTOR

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Milk

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

The Wrestler

ADAPTED

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Doubt

Revolutionary Road

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

ORIGINAL

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Synecdoche, New York

Wall-E

The Wrestler

L. ACTOR

Sean Penn -- Milk

Frank Langella -- Frost/Nixon

Mickey Rourke -- The Wrestler

Leonardo Dicaprio -- Revolutionary Road

Richard Jenkins -- The Visitor

L. ACTRESS

Meryl Streep -- Doubt

Anne Hathaway -- Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie -- Changeling

Kate Winslet -- Revolutionary Road

Melissa Leo -- Frozen River

S. ACTOR

Heath Ledger -- The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Doubt

Emile Hirsch -- Milk

Josh Brolin -- Milk

Michael Shannon -- Revolutionary Road

S. ACTRESS

Kate Winslet -- The Reader

Viola Davis -- Doubt

Marisa Tomei -- The Wrestler

Amy Adams -- Doubt

Taraji Henson -- The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

EDITING

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Defiance

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Australia

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Revolutionary Road

SET

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Valkyrie

COSTUME

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

The Other Boleyn Girl

Revolutionary Road

SCORE

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall-E

SOUND

The Dark Knight

Defiance

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

Wall-E

SOUND EDITING

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

Wall-E

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

MAKE-UP

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Hellboy 2

The Reader

[FilmFan720]

It's December 1, time for my first predictions.

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
James Franco, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Gran Torino
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

[Eric]

I'd lose Australia and Frost/Nixon from that list completely.

[Penelope]

On that EW list, I would move The Dark Knight and Milk up to positions 4 and 3, respectively, bumping Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon down.

[rolotomasi99]

entertainment weekly's take on the oscar race so far.

Oscars: 8 Best Picture Favorites

By now, nearly every awards-baiting film has screened for the media and members of the Academy. And it appears that the Best Picture contest has narrowed to an octet of contenders: two that have already been released (The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire), two that hit theaters this week (Australia and Milk), and four that are set to debut in December (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/ Nixon, and Revolutionary Road). As of now, there's no true lock à la No Country for Old Men or The Lord of the Rings from years past; in fact, any combination of five seems perfectly feasible at this point. Here's how each of the eight unofficial semifinalists — listed in order of likelihood — could make it into the final five...and what might leave them on Oscar's cutting-room floor.

8. AUSTRALIA
How it gets in -- If the epic-loving Academy members (likely older and female) who voted Atonement in last year need another old-fashioned, visually impressive weepie to get behind, it'll be Baz Luhrmann's sure-to-be-divisive love story.
How it gets left out -- If critics trash it, then Benjamin Button may fill the visually impressive weepie quota.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT
How it gets in -- With the economic climate becoming more dire every day, recognizing a movie that made over half a billion dollars domestically (and earned quite strong reviews) might be very appealing for some.
How it gets left out -- It's the Oscar equivalent of the Bradley effect: With ballots in hand, will voters really check off a popcorn movie?

6. MILK
How it gets in -- Anchored by Sean Penn's phenomenal turn as gay politician Harvey Milk, Gus Van Sant's moving biopic has become all the more relevant in the wake of the passage of California's Proposition 8, banning same-sex marriage. It'll surely earn more No. 1 votes now.
How it gets left out -- Unlike Brokeback Mountain, the film doesn't have many straight characters. For a segment of the Academy, there's still such a thing as ''too gay.''

5. DOUBT
How it gets in -- A quartet of fantastic performances (from Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, and Viola Davis) could make the Catholic-school morality play the 35th film ever to earn four or more acting nods. Thirty-one of the previous 34 also received Best Picture noms.
How it gets left out -- Should one of the four not make the cut (Adams, who has the least showy role, is the most vulnerable), all bets are off.

4. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
How it gets in -- An Oscar-winning director (Sam Mendes), working with the two stars of perhaps the most celebrated film of all time (Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet). More than any other contender, this movie drips with prestige.
How it gets left out -- It's essentially a film about miserable people being miserable. Will voters find it more of a turnoff than a treasure?

3. FROST/NIXON
How it gets in --Ron Howard's take on the smash Broadway play could be perceived as the Good Night, and Good Luck of this year: a film that manages to be educational and entertaining.
How it gets left out -- Detractors are already grumbling about how writer Peter Morgan mixed fiction with fact. That didn't derail Howard's A Beautiful Mind in 2002, but Mind was about a mathematician, not a president.

2. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
How it gets in -- Three months ago, no one had even heard of it. But Danny Boyle's Dickensian fairy tale — the most ''indie'' film with a real shot at a nomination — is on track to become the ''discovery'' film of the year.
How it gets left out -- Fox Searchlight, which steered Little Miss Sunshine and Juno to the big dance, just needs to be careful not to over-campaign. Best to let the movie speak for itself.

1. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
How it gets in -- David Fincher's star-studded fable boasts jaw-dropping special effects combined with a hankie-worthy romance. Even if leading man Brad Pitt gets squeezed out of the tight Best Actor race, it still should earn at least 10 nods.
How it gets left out -- Viewers may deem the film cold or find the technological wizardry too distracting to focus on the film's weighty issues of love and death.

[abcinyvr]

Best Supporting Actress:
Samantha Morton, Synecdoche, New York

Samantha Morton should be lead, there is no other actress with more screen time than her. Plus, her character is one of the few to appear throughout the film - even following her replacement by an 'actress' portraying her character. I thought her performance was the best in the film, even more than PSH's.

[rolotomasi99]

awardsdaily compiled the current 2008 highest metacritic scores, and compared them to 2007.
it is interesting to see all but 2 films from 2007 that had a score of 80 or higher were nominated for at least one oscar. from the current list, i would say PARANOID PARK and HAPPY-GO-LUCKY are the most likely to be left off -- though they could still make it in with an adapted screenplay and lead actress nomination respectively.

2008

93 WALL-E
86 Milk
85 Slumdog Millionaire
84 Happy-Go-Lucky
83 Paranoid Park
82 The Dark Knight
82 Frozen River
82 Rachel Getting Married

2007

96 Ratatouille
92 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
92 There Will Be Blood
91 No Country for Old Men
88 Once
88 Away from Her
85 Atonement
85 The Bourne Ultimatum
85 The Savages
85 Knocked Up
84 Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
82 Michael Clayton
81 Juno



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1227711942

[rolotomasi99]

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
*Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

yay! streep!

[flipp525]

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
*Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Runner-up: Doubt

Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight seem like the safest bets.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Runner-up: Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
*Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Runner-up: Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

This line-up seems entirely possible. Penn will win on the strength of his performance and the topical nature of the film.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
*Kate Winslet, The Reader

Runner-up: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I think voters might see through the category fraud this time and vote for Winslet in the proper category, even if she gets beat out for the fifth spot by her own performance in Revolutionary Road. Jolie could be out to make way for any number of indie darlings (Melissa Leo, Frozen River or Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy). The statue goes to Streep or Winslet.

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Emile Hirsch, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
*Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Runner-up: Josh Brolin, Milk

Franco gets in as the "suffering wife" role so often nominated in female support. This is Ledger's to lose.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
*Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Samantha Morton, Synecdoche, New York

Runner-up: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Morton is certainly a dark horse choice, but I think critics awards could revive her chances and this category has been known to surprise.



Edited By flipp525 on 1228146294

[rolotomasi99]

if you thought diane lane's performance was the third best of the nominees that year and THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY is one of streep's best, then we clearly do have different standards for a good performance.

By the way, I didn't say that Lane's performance was the "the third best of the nominees that year". I said that it probably came in at #3 in the voting for nominations.

I'm not the consummate lister, ranker, tabulator, box office total predictor that you are, so I don't feel like ranking Streep's performances. If I did, Bridges would definitely be towards the top of the list.

lane had the third most votes for a nomination that year? really? the first two being who? moore and kidman? lane had more than zellweger, even though her film was the favorite for best picture? interesting.

sorry about the obsessive lists. that is just how my brain works. i guess i need to reassess streep's performance in that film. i feel like the little old lady from IN & OUT. "alright. i'll say it. outloud, in front of everyone. i hated the bridges of madison county." :p

[Penelope]

And she HATED making Death Becomes Her. Has gone on record that it was one of her least favorite filmmaking experiences.

[flipp525]

if you thought diane lane's performance was the third best of the nominees that year and THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY is one of streep's best, then we clearly do have different standards for a good performance.

I'll go flipp one better. Streep's performance in Death Becomes Her was better than any of Streep's Oscar-nominated turns that I've seen so far (Madison County possibly excepted).

"NOW a warning!?"

[Eric]

if you thought diane lane's performance was the third best of the nominees that year and THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY is one of streep's best, then we clearly do have different standards for a good performance.

I'll go flipp one better. Streep's performance in Death Becomes Her was better than any of Streep's Oscar-nominated turns that I've seen so far (Madison County possibly excepted).

[flipp525]

if you thought diane lane's performance was the third best of the nominees that year and THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY is one of streep's best, then we clearly do have different standards for a good performance.

By the way, I didn't say that Lane's performance was the "the third best of the nominees that year". I said that it probably came in at #3 in the voting for nominations.

I'm not the consummate lister, ranker, tabulator, box office total predictor that you are, so I don't feel like ranking Streep's performances. If I did, Bridges would definitely be towards the top of the list.



Edited By flipp525 on 1227559762