Big Magilla wrote:Unlikely. Crowe isn't getting any buzz at all. I think they'll go for broke with Washington.
Oprah produced The Great Debaters and is showcasing it on her show a la Crash and Dreamgirls. It will be enough to get people into theatres. Like Mr. Holland's Opus and similar films, it may be critic proof.
I just saw American Gangster on Monday and, though Crowe was good, Washington definitely takes the cake for that picture. I don't know about The Great Debaters, but I can see them pushing Washington for this one.
"It's the least most of us can do, but less of us will do more."
OscarGuy wrote:I haven't seen posters yet touting American Gangster for awards, but what about this scenario?
They push Crowe for lead and move Washington to support so he doesn't have to compete against himself? It's been done and what meatier role for a Supporting nomination could there be. Now, before anyone jumps on me for saying it, I don't think he's supporting...I'm just throwing out there the very real possibility.
It all depends on how Great Debaters performs with critics and audiences.
Unlikely. Crowe isn't getting any buzz at all. I think they'll go for broke with Washington.
Oprah produced The Great Debaters and is showcasing it on her show a la Crash and Dreamgirls. It will be enough to get people into theatres. Like Mr. Holland's Opus and similar films, it may be critic proof.
Fair point about The Savages. My best picture line-up was looking heavy and it's more appealing to me personally than Sweeney Todd, so I gave it the benefit of the doubt.
I think Affleck is just too talked-up at the moment to be discounted. He seems virtually guaranteed to show up in the critics awards somewhere, and they may not be able to ignore him, particularly as he is the latest victim of the lesser-known lead shovelled into support travesty.
Don't know much about the other Denzel film but hard to imagine it's less appealing than a Ridley Scott movie co-starring Russell Crowe.
The fact that you don't have Blanchett included in your predictions is enough to win me over.
I don't despise her as much as you do, but I can't think of anyone from any era in film history who has been so disappointing in so many high profile proects.
The only thing I genuinely liked her in was Notes on a Scandal.
I haven't seen posters yet touting American Gangster for awards, but what about this scenario?
They push Crowe for lead and move Washington to support so he doesn't have to compete against himself? It's been done and what meatier role for a Supporting nomination could there be. Now, before anyone jumps on me for saying it, I don't think he's supporting...I'm just throwing out there the very real possibility.
It all depends on how Great Debaters performs with critics and audiences.
Someday, I'll find the time to revise...but it may be a week or so.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
I don't know about The Savages. It's probably not strong enough for a best picture nod, though Linney is always a threat. I'm not as confident about Bosco as I once was. I'm less confident, though, about Casey Affleck. I've got a sneaking suspicion most AMPAS members won't sit through their screeners probably having seen more Jesse James movies in their lifetimes than they've ever wanted to.
I'm beginning to think Denzel Washington will draw support for The Great Debaters than American Gangster, but probably not enough votes for either to make the cut.
• Atonement
• Into the Wild
• No Country for Old Men
• The Savages
• There Will Be Blood
Others: Sweeney Todd, Love in the Time of Cholera, Michael Clayton, Charlie Wilson’s War, Jesse James, Juno
Best Director
• Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
• Andrew Dominik - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• David Fincher - Zodiac
• Sean Penn – Into the Wild
• Joe Wright – Atonement
Best Actor
Apart from Day-Lewis this is tough to pin down. There must be twenty or more viable candidates at this stage, which is quite refreshing.
• Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
• Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
• Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
• James McAvoy – Atonement
• Denzel Washington – American Gangster
Others: Benicio del Toro, Josh Brolin, Sam Riley, Gordon Pinsent, Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Philip Seymour Hoffman etc etc
Best Actress
..whereas best actress is already thinning down to a mere handful (sigh). Rueda is my one stab in the dark.
• Helena Bonham Carter – Sweeney Todd
• Marion Cotillard – La vie en rose
• Julie Christie – Away from Her
• Laura Linney – The Savages
• Belén Rueda – The Orphanage
Others: Ellen Page, Keira Knightley, Anjelina Jolie
Best Supporting Actor
• Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
• Robert Downey Jr - Zodiac
• Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
• Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Others: Ben Foster, Max von Sydow, Paul Dano, Philip Bosco, Alan Rickman
I suspect Holbrook could be the sentimental victor of the night but Bardem seems to have a lot of support.
Best Supporting Actress
Hope for Redgrave here but I am genuinely concerned that the Academy will see her role as too small. Romola Garai would also be a worthy contender but Ronan seems to have the support at the moment. I could see any of these five winning.
• Ruby Dee – American Gangster
• Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot at the Wedding
• Samantha Morton - Control
• Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
• Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Others: the other two Brionys, Catherine Keener, Olympia Dukakis
Best Original Screenplay
• American Gangster
• Margot at the Wedding
• Michael Clayton
• Ratatouille
• The Savages
Best Adapted Screenplay
• Away from Her
• Atonement
• Into the Wild
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood
Precious Doll wrote:Though I doubt Samantha Morton will be nominated for Control. She was good but like everyone else in the film she was out acted by Sam Riley who deserves a Best Actor nomination that he will not receive.
It may be an extreme long-shot but I have faith that Riley is at least in the running. It's not a typical oscar-friendly musical bio role, Ian Curtis being somewhat less glam of a subject than Ray Charles or Johnny Cash, but Riley is so good that the critics awards might not be able to overlook him. Fingers crossed, for his is a magnificent performance.
The fact that you don't have Blanchett included in your predictions is enough to win me over.
Though I doubt Samantha Morton will be nominated for Control. She was good but like everyone else in the film she was out acted by Sam Riley who deserves a Best Actor nomination that he will not receive.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
Good predictions Magilla. I'm slowly accepting Sweeney Todd as a strong contender. I have a hunch it's box office is going to be rather boffo round Christmastime and that could swing it.
One catch - you have Amy Ryan listed for Into the Wild rather than Gone Baby Gone.
I like your supporting actor line-up, although I don't see Philip Bosco nominated without co-star Laura Linney. Either The Savages goes down a storm, or not at all. I'd currently lean towards the former. I certainly don't see the forgettable Jolie and hardly there Knightley as ahead of Linney. Bardem and Holbrook look solid and I'll hold out hope for a long overdue second stab at it for von Sydow.
Glad to see someone else has faith in Morton. The Academy likes it's music bios glossy and feelgood and Control aint that, but her performance might just be too good to pass over.
Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There will Be Blood
This is my first predition for Sweeney Todd. I'm still not completely sold, but with American Gangster, Michael Clayton and others just not looking like best picture candidates, there isn't much else to hold out hope for.
Best Actor
Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement
Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cottilard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno
Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Bosco, The Savages
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Supporting Actress
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Samantha Morton, Control
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel & Ethen Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joe Wright, Atonement
I did not mean to diminish the quality of Diving Bell as a film, I merely was handicapping its chances at actually receiving a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards which has to be less than zero...hopefully along those same lines as Hairspray...and thus my worry for Assassination's chances out the window completely with those 2 films listed ahead of it (in EW's preview at least)
At this point, Affleck is actor of the year hands down I feel, but I am holding out hope greatly for that to be recognized by people outside of the 10 or 20 of us who were lucky enough to see the film, and I am 100% with Penelope that it should be Best Actor push all the way and I think I would prefer going down without a nomination but in the correct category, the thing with Scarlett Johansson was too much
If Casey Affleck doesn't receive a nomination I will put my foot through the television. I understand how the film (best of the year for me) is not included in the BP list but Andrew Dominik should have at least been mentioned for Direction.
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly is mentioned for good reason. Don't know if it's exclusion in the Foreign Language category will help or hurt. But, it is a very excellent film, and I expect it may surface in Direction, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay.
