SAG Thoughts/Winners to be Added

[Sonic Youth]

Can we agree the problem with awards shows isn’t the commercials?

[Sonic Youth]

Well, I'll start

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Now THERE’S a surprise!

[Big Magilla]

This show is torture to sit through.

I was interrupted with a phone call that took me out of it for a good half hour, so I missed the two film awards handed out so far.

I came back to more backstage jabbering with the TV winners. Turned off the TV. May not watch another one until the Oscars.

[Sabin]

Well, I'll start

Outstanding Performance by a Cast Ensemble: Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

[Mister Tee]

I had a few thoughts about tonight's show, so I thought I'd share them, and set up this thread as a spot to post the winners.

Last year, SAG upended the apple cart, picking four acting winners different from the BAFTA choices -- I'm not even sure when that had last happened. Because all the SAG winners repeated at the Oscars, this has convinced people with Memento-brain that SAG is now the be-all/end-all -- wiping 2020 from their minds entirely (not to mention Olivia Colman, Mark Rylance, Casey Affleck...)

However, it does remain the fact that, with the exception of the Regina King oddity (not nominated at either BAFTA or SAG, but won Globes/Broadcasters and swept critics), no actor has won the Oscar without either a SAG or BAFTA since George Clooney in 2005. For best actor and supporting actor, it's 2002.

So, to make it interesting...

Paul Giamatti needs to win tonight. He could well win the Oscar if he does, but a Cillian Murphy trophy would pretty much seal the race for him. A Bradley Cooper win would be pretty hilarious -- putting the race back to the December pundit consensus -- but most unlikely.

Lily Gladstone, like Giamatti, NEEDS to win here. The fact that Killers is an Ensemble nominee where Poor Things isn't might help, or might not. The Annette Bening Hail Mary hopes also live and die tonight. Whoever wins, Emma Stone is clearly in the Oscar hunt, but if she triumphs here, it's over.

As I've said elsewhere about supporting actor, SAG is our last hope of turning a coronation into a contest. People seem to have decided on Downey as juggernaut, but Gosling might have the slightest shot at an upset.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph is so locked there's no point in discussion.

Ensemble has a remote chance of being interesting. Oppenheimer seems like the obvious choice, and, were it to win, no one would be surprised. SAG has shown, of all the Guilds, the greatest propensity to honor largely black casts (The Help, Hidden Figures, Black Panther), but they have two films -- two very different films -- splitting the demographic. And what about Barbie? Given the mild level of political resentment over AMPAS' treatment of the film, and the general populist bent of the Guild, is it possible the year's biggest grossing film takes home the prize?

We'll discuss all this at a later hour.