New Developments III

[Big Magilla]

Apparently, Barbara Lee's district is safe for Dems, but Katie Porter's is a swing district so it could be a problem.

The strategists aren't too worried about the "uncommitted" protest votes against Biden over Gaza. They expect the majority of those folks to vote for him in the general - they aren't going to vote for Trump, and they know staying home would be a vote for Trump.

The 2024 vote should mirror the 1964 election when Johnson trounced Goldwater, but somehow the world has gotten dumber since then, not smarter.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.

What? Oh, that's fucking stupid. I didn't know that.

I saw about that campaign Garvey ran, "boosting" him. I think it's super danger to do what Schiff and Democrats do when they boost the dangerous right-winger... except every time they do it, it turns out in their favor.

Nikki Haley has withdrawn. She has 89 delegates which puts her above Elizabeth Warren's 79th for second highest delegate total for a female Presidential candidate. The leader being Hilary Clinton with 4,820. I expect that total to be overcome... never.

Finally (man, I don't want to open up a can of worms here), there's been considerable conversations in online spaces about voters choosing "Uncommitted" in protest to the President's age and his policy in the Gaza War. The primary isn't over yet but the numbers do not bear that out. Biden is performing about on par with Barack Obama in 2012 and with less fringe competition. While I would definitely consider Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips fringe, they've got nothing on John Wolfe, Jr., Darcy Richardson, Keith Russell Judd, and of course Vermin Supreme. Now that is some good ol' fashioned fringe! All of those candidates racked up higher percentage totals in states against Barack Obama than Phillips, Williamson, or Uncommitted have against Joe Biden. Also, Uncommitted is roughly the same in both elections as well.

Joe Biden is going into the election with the weirdest slate of negatives I've ever seen. "He's too old. I want someone else. I don't have a favorable opinion of him... what? No, of course I'll vote for him."

[danfrank]

FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.

[Sabin]

Well, it's going to be Adam Schiff vs. Steve Garvey. I strategically cast my vote for Katie Porter at the last moment but even if you combine Porter and Lee's votes it probably wouldn't have been enough to get past Garvey. I don't really have a problem with Adam Schiff on the whole. I just thought a Schiff vs. Porter or Schiff vs. Lee race might better serve the people of California. But now I guess all that money can go to other races. Maybe to Orange County to help Katie Porter.

So inevitable congratulations to Senator Adam Schiff. And good luck to Katie Porter on surviving another race in Orange County.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
That's the concern I have about most of the races this year.

The good news is that mail-in voting remains a thing. Also, right-wing lunacy is in full swing like I've never seen before. Every time I think we've lost, the right-wing does crazy shit like going after IVF. Wildly outside the mainstream stuff.

[Big Magilla]

Sabin wrote:
The only concern I have about Kari Lake is if Democrats just don't vote.

That's the concern I have about most of the races this year.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
Yes, and let’s hope that Ruben Gallego runs a strong campaign because Kari Lake would be far worse than Sinema.

I think Gallego is going to win. I'm hearing a lot about how "progressive" he is but he's not nearly as far to the left as Lake is to the right. She is the worst of all worlds. She's been to the far right on every issue and reversed all of them at some point. She's also a previous loser for governor. The only concern I have about Kari Lake is if Democrats just don't vote.

[danfrank]

Krysten Sinema has bowed out of the Senate race in Arizona. Good riddance.

Yes, and let’s hope that Ruben Gallego runs a strong campaign because Kari Lake would be far worse than Sinema.

[Sabin]

Krysten Sinema has bowed out of the Senate race in Arizona. Good riddance.

[Big Magilla]

The election results in New York and Pennsylvania special elections last Tuesday sent shock waves through the Republican Party, or what there is left of it. The New York vote reduced Republican control of the House to just two representatives. The Pennsylvania vote retained control of the State House for the Democrats.

The Trump supporters are talkers, the Biden supporters are doers.

Shame on Jon Stewart and all the rest of these talking heads for making fun of Biden's gaffes whether they compare Trump's to his or not.

Everyone misspeaks, saying a wrong word here or there, getting a name wrong, not remembering the year someone close to them died. They may not remember the date, but they don't forget the situation. And, yes, the longer you are around, the more often you will make a mistake, sometimes the same one over and over.

There are real issues at stake in this election. Let's not be distracted by inconsequential nonsense.

[Sabin]

Last week went about as poorly for Biden as a week could go. His cleanest line to knocking Trump off the ballot dissipated, the Hur report dropped, and Biden's immediate response (while not IMO pointing to senility) did nothing to help him. And the return of Jon Stewart didn't spare Biden an inch save for saying "Hey, Trump is an old forgetful guy too."

This week... Trump has to pay $350m (!) and gave Biden a clip we are going to see non-stop ("I'll encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want.") the same week that Navalny died in prison. We don't know for sure if Putin killed him ("for sure" is doing a lot of heavy-lifting) but it makes Trump look dangerous at worst, recklessly naive at best.

Have we been here before? Of course, although I don't recall Trump's comments ever been so tragically rebuked in real time. And of course, we're long past the point where anyone can get through to his people. Truly, we're just going to have to cycle through them. But this week is a good reminder that it ain't over till it's over.

[Sonic Youth]

Once I built a tower up to the sun.
Brick and rivet and lime.
Once I built a tower. Now it's done.
Brother, can you spare a dime?

[Sabin]

I'm posting this because literally months ago, a friend asked me under what circumstances at this point would someone other than Biden be the nominee and I basically laid out these scenarios.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... e-00140790

I'm a bit mixed on the "Biden's losing it" issue. I definitely think he's lost a few steps, but I don't think he's senile or anything. On the other hand, there's a perception out there that he is. I think part of that has to do with the fact that Biden doesn't think the President needs to be front and center every minute of the day and wants to go back to a pre-Trump/pre-social media presidency. That's not going to happen. Sadly, a President has to be some kind of a present messenger. He's not fantastic in that regard. So, if Biden wants to stay in, he's going to have to fight that perception.

If not, then he releases his delegates and it goes to a blue state governor.

There is only reason why I think Biden would go this route if he wasn't intending on being the nominee and that is that he and folks in Washington don't think that Kamala is up for it.

If this happens, it'll be messy as hell, almost unprecedented... and kind of exciting. Except for the nomination contest key, right?

[Sabin]

Congratulations to Joe Biden for winning South Carolina with an estimated 96.5% of the vote. That's an insane victory and yet it's also a total non-event. But more importantly, the Democratic path to the nomination has now changed today. It's easy to speculate on how the primaries might have shook out differently in races prior (and how different today's political landscape might look) but starting this year we're probably going to see less raucous Democratic primaries moving forward.

[Greg]

The U.S. Supreme Court will start hearing oral arguments this coming Thursday on whether or not Donald Trump should be barred form the ballot this November. This involves the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution barring insurrectionists from holding office and Trump's involvement with the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.