New Developments III

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
While it was nice to have the occasional vote of Joe Manchin, I think it's probably better to rip the band-aid off now rather than in November next year. Maybe we can get another Democrat who won't completely whiff the state. That said, This puts enormous pressure on Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego to win their contests. If we could pick off Rick Scott or Ted Cruz, that would help, but we're defending more than they are and in unfriendly territory, so things could get dicey.

This is the revenge of the 2018 map, a midterm in which we generally over-performed but still lost seats in the Senate. Our biggest hope has to be abortion on the ballot, Chuck Schumer's strength as a fundraiser and organizer, the lack of popularity of their opponents (Brown's seat should be gone as well but he's running against a uniquely unpopular opponent), and the lack of organization on McConnell's end, however long he remains the Senate Majority Leader.

I think Rick Scott is possible to knock out (though unlikely) depending on who's running against him. That said, it's so frustrating that when all is said and done, the best we can possibly get is 50 seats plus our two independents. Senate math is bullshit.

[OscarGuy]

While it was nice to have the occasional vote of Joe Manchin, I think it's probably better to rip the band-aid off now rather than in November next year. Maybe we can get another Democrat who won't completely whiff the state. That said, This puts enormous pressure on Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego to win their contests. If we could pick off Rick Scott or Ted Cruz, that would help, but we're defending more than they are and in unfriendly territory, so things could get dicey.

[Sabin]

I watched the Republican debate so you don't have to...

The previous debate was the crappiest debate I think I've ever seen. I knew that with the Israel-Hamas War, this wouldn't be as bad. Also because Mike Pence dropped out. He joins a distinguished list of Indiana Vice Presidents including Charles Fairbanks and Dan Quayle who ran for the Presidency and utterly failed. Let it be known that if you are a Vice President from 1900 onward and you make an actual run for the Presidency (not a half-step like Allen Barkley), you will get the party's support at least once unless you are from Indiana, in which case fuck you you don't exist to us.

But more so, this debate felt irrelevant in contrast to larger events. It felt irrelevant in contrast to Trump, who leads them by 50 points but also now leads Biden in critical swing states (we'll see how that looks next year). But it also felt irrelevant next to the night before's special elections where Republicans got draxed across the board. More important than anything at the debate was earlier than day when pro-life/anti-choice leader Lila Rose acknowledged their defeat on the abortion issue and said they had to change strategies. They had to find "new ways to educate Americans on their stance on abortion," which is exactly what Glenn Youngkin tried to do in the weeks before and failed. Democrats up for re-election must be like "No... don't keep finding new ways to talk to voters about abortion... don't do that..." [NOTE the hits of how this debate didn't matter keep coming; as I wrote this, Joe Manchin announced he's not running for re-election. Significantly more important.)

Anyway, the debate was basically Ramaswamay attacking everyone -- including the moderators -- as someone dipping in the polls would; while he did, Christie and Haley sounded the war drums. I read a debate that said they gave an excellent Republican debate from 2004. I don't disagree, although I think Haley generally came off well. Like, if you're looking for a candidate who has the qualifications to hold a job like the President, she most fit the bill. That said, I don't think the issue is that Republicans don't want that in a candidate anymore; I think they hold it in contempt. Nikki Haley had to explain to Ramaswamay and the audience that sometimes when you have to deal with international entities you might refer to them as a friend when they budget an inch. But no, for them that makes her The Swamp.

(EDIT) ...yeah, I just don't think this warrants much conversation. I thought about calling Nikki Haley the winner because she continues to surpass my limited expectations. I didn't think she'd carve out any lane for herself in this party in 2024 and also she benefits from someone less likable (Ramaswamay) mentioning her daughter on the debate stage. But I think the girl-bossification of Nikki Haley hit something of a brick wall when she clarified that she doesn't wear three inch heels. She wears five inch heels and only if she can run in them (what?) and they're not a fashion statement, they're ammunition (huh?). Also, Ron DeSantis continues his strategy of just surviving debates. He didn't have to address "Bootgate" so that's a win. He also had the only soundbite that will do anyone any good (about winning in Florida; keep saying that).

The loser of the debate is probably Tim Scott. We won't be seeing him against. If he had an ounce of charisma, I would find his theocrat rhetoric alarming. Instead, I just kinda worry about him. And his girlfriend reveal was... yeah, just drop out.

--

The debate was about discussing losing. Lots of "loser" rhetoric. Why are Republicans losing? How do they win? The elephant in the room (Trump) was barely brought up but that's really the reason we're having these debates. If Trump's support among Republicans dips when he's convicted, who picks up enough support to deadlock the convention and form a compromise ticket or something. Or does it not dip significantly enough for that to happen? Right now, Trump is sitting at 45%-ish in both Iowa and New Hampshire in 2-3 months; DeSantis and Haley are at 17% & 13% and 11% & 15% respectively. It's basically a race for second between these two. I don't pretend to know who gets whose support when they drop out but I would imagine DeSantis need Scott and Ramaswamay's while Haley needs Christie's. They're not in the same position that they were in 2016 but it's close. I expect Scott to drop out yesterday. His support will port between Trump and DeSantis. And then the next question is whether Chris Christie drops out before or after Trump gets sentenced. I honestly don't know what's going to happen there. Nobody can really offer him Christie the Vice Presidency because he's the most unpopular Republican out there and he can't be stupid enough to take the offer (again). Does he hold out for AG? Or does he just hold out in general under the assumption that maybe when Trump gets sentenced that's his big moment?

[Big Magilla]

I don't think there was a lot of polling on yesterday's races, but most were seen as toss-ups. Youngkin, for instance, was sure things were going his way until the Virginia results came in.

[Sonic Youth]

Has there been a significant discrepancy between the polls and yesterdays election outcomes?

[Big Magilla]

Trump votes were undercounted in 2016 polling thanks in some part to people being embarrassed to admit that they were voting for him but since then, especially after the Dobbs Decision, it's the Democrats whose votes have been undercounted in polling.

People are concerned about inflation and crime as they always are, but those are not the driving forces behind today's elections, which revolve around the taking away of rights, not just abortion rights but everything from the right to read a book to the right to worship or not worship as you wish. I am hopeful that the Presidency will remain in Democrats' hands, and I am fairly certain that the House will be back in Democrats' hands in the next election as well. The Senate, on the other hand, is a toss-up at least as of now.

I've heard several commentators say today that Biden's message against Trump has to be tougher, and that his campaign has to play and replay Trump's recent message that he "ended Roe".

[OscarGuy]

It's occasionally a factor. Most polling houses are trying to compensate for the loss of landline support and to account for Trump voters who will outwardly lie to pollsters about who they support and why. The secret sauce hasn't been set, but a lot of them are starting to mixing online polls as well. My guess is that it will continue to be an issue until the Baby Boomers start dying en masse since Gen X (not all) and later are generally internet savvy.

[Big Magilla]

Isn't polling still done mostly on landline phones? If so, that could be a major factor in the disparity between polling results and actual voting results as landline usage continues to plummet.

In 2004, 90% of U.S. homes still had landlines. Now it's between 30-40%. The majority of holdouts tend to be both conservative and older just as the majority of Republicans tend to be conservative and older.

[OscarGuy]

The results in Ohio are also great. If we continue to frame the election in terms of abortion access (which is what Dems in Virginia did as well), I think we can pull it out. Sure, Biden has all the legislative successes, but voters seem less interested in legislative successes these days than they do about social issues, which is a very sad state of affairs.

[Sonic Youth]

The strong showing so far in off-year elections is a positive sign and if we can pull out both chambers in Virginia after tonight, I'd say he's sitting in a good spot.

And look what just happened...

[OscarGuy]

Historically, 3rd party candidates always do well in polling up until the election. At that point, most of the people who planned on voting for them realized they weren't going to win and swapped to one of the main party candidates. It's why so few 3rd party candidates have ever come close to picking up electoral votes. RFK is not really picking up steam. He's got the anti-vaxxers singing his praises, but doesn't have the liberal bona fides for the younger folks who will eventually come to realize he's an empty suit. I'm not terribly worried a year out. Once Biden starts campaigning, he'll start carving out a place higher up in the polls.

He just needs to harp on the successes he's achieved and the inability of the Republican Party to elect a speaker, better yet pass any meaningful legislation. That coupled with the continued assault on women's right to choose, I suspect his base is a lot more solid than some are giving him credit for. The strong showing so far in off-year elections is a positive sign and if we can pull out both chambers in Virginia after tonight, I'd say he's sitting in a good spot.

[Sonic Youth]

I wouldn't necessarily ignore the poll - anything that can motivate Democrats is a good thing - but I would ignore all the commentary surrounding it. Most of it will ultimately prove to be useless.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Please just remember that at this point in 2011, everyone was predicting doom and gloom for Obama as well.

Yes, but then they/we were reminded that despite the economy he had passed the ACA and assassinated OBL. He went into 2012 with only four keys against him on the Lichtman scale.

After 2020, I don't need to be reminded again that you can't predict the future 1-2 years out. If we're to take Lichmtan's model as accurate, then Trump was en route to win with only four keys against him, identical to Obama in 2012. What's COVID? Who knows what's going to happen in the next year. But the difference I see is that Trump lost ground whereas it's still entirely questionable what advantage Biden really holds.

Despite a historically strong midterm for the incumbent it still constitutes a loss... right?
Is RFK Jr. good or bad for him?
Is the economy improving or stagnating?
There's no policy change, but no social unrest, but no scandal.
Is Ukraine a success or a failure? Or a wash? Afghanistan? Israel?
What's... anything?

What are we going to bat with besides an incarcerated opponent? I mean, I'll take it but I'd prefer a better hand.

[OscarGuy]

Please just remember that at this point in 2011, everyone was predicting doom and gloom for Obama as well.

[Sabin]

In other news, voters under 45 are idiots.

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2024/ ... legrounds/