This is the revenge of the 2018 map, a midterm in which we generally over-performed but still lost seats in the Senate. Our biggest hope has to be abortion on the ballot, Chuck Schumer's strength as a fundraiser and organizer, the lack of popularity of their opponents (Brown's seat should be gone as well but he's running against a uniquely unpopular opponent), and the lack of organization on McConnell's end, however long he remains the Senate Majority Leader.OscarGuy wrote
While it was nice to have the occasional vote of Joe Manchin, I think it's probably better to rip the band-aid off now rather than in November next year. Maybe we can get another Democrat who won't completely whiff the state. That said, This puts enormous pressure on Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego to win their contests. If we could pick off Rick Scott or Ted Cruz, that would help, but we're defending more than they are and in unfriendly territory, so things could get dicey.
I think Rick Scott is possible to knock out (though unlikely) depending on who's running against him. That said, it's so frustrating that when all is said and done, the best we can possibly get is 50 seats plus our two independents. Senate math is bullshit.