New Developments III

[Okri]

AP and NBC just called Arizona for Kelly. Just Nevada and Georgia now (technically Alaska, but the top two are both Republicans)

[Sabin]

I want to say one quick critical thing about the Democrats.

I just got an email that read:

"TITLE: There's nothing left to say. Goodbye."

That's like a suicide note! Then you open it up and it's "from" Catherine Cortez-Masto asking for contributions in the final run-up.

That's really emotionally manipulative stuff. Congratulations on over-performing and you do what you gotta do, but find something else for 2024 because it's not going to work every time.

[OscarGuy]

You can chalk up New York and California to minimal campaigning. Schumer and Newsom both felt that they were in like Flynn and so they didn't do the kind of campaign that would support down-ballot races, hence the meager turnout. If we lose several California house districts because Newsom didn't campaign, then we'll have a major issue.

As to Florida, it's entirely the Cuban American population. In spite of them escaping would-be dictators in Cuba, they adore strong men and so they respond well to the machismo of the Republicans lately. Christ was a poor candidate because he just reminded Floridians that he was a RINO and wishy-washy. And what worked against Demings is twofold. She's Black and she's a woman. People wondered why Stacey Abrams got so few votes compared to Raphael Warnock and I'll guarantee a lot of that is gender-related.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Trump will hold a grudge and his acolytes worship the ground he walks on. If De Santis runs, he will be raked over the cult's coals. I suspect that after a bitter and bloody primary that if De Santis somehow comes out on top (which he probably won't knowing the fanatics of Trump), Trump will demand his followers stay home, which would most likely cost De Santis critical states he needs to win, NC, GA, NV, WI, and AZ for sure with IA and OH the next most likely to fall. No one can win the presidency without most of those.

I don't even think it'll come down to Trump's cult raking them over the coals. I think once DeSantis gets on a debate stage with Trump, it's over. I maintain that Ron DeSantis is the most overrated politician alive. I say this knowing that he could still end up being the President, but one thing he isn't is Trump. He has spent the last four years courting so many comparisons to Trump that there's no way he can start to live up to them, and the GOP admires strength above all else. Ron DeSantis is going to look like the smallest man alive on that stage, which will affect him with independents, Republican true believers, and certainly Trump's base. I hope Ron DeSantis is enjoying the high-water mark of his political career because if he chooses to run and Trump jumps in, it is most likely all downhill from here.

Big Magilla wrote
The Democrats' almost giddy celebration, though, is premature. Although common sense prevailed in most key races, some of them were awfully close, meaning that half the country is still nuts. If the Republicans control the House, it will be run by Jim Jordan and his ilk no matter who the Speaker is. Watch for immediate calls for Biden's impeachment on whatever trumped up charge they can think of. Nothing will get done for the next two years for which the Republicans will once again try to put the blame on the Democrats.

With or without Trump, we are in for at least two more years of crazy.

I don't know what you're talking about. There were awful people in this country before Trump and there are going to be awful people in this country after Trump. But what this election proved is that red state or blue state, there are issues that still matter. Overturning Roe v. Wade mattered to people. And gay marriage is going to matter to people too if they try to overturn that next. The Republican Party is just too far to the right and that mattered to people. Which means that the Democratic Party has a shot at pulling together a winning coalition in the future. Yes, they can still try to cheat. But this is the first election that I have lived through where Democratic candidates put their opponents on the spot and got aggressive about their intentions to overturn abortion rights. And they're going to keep doing that. They're going to it for gay marriage, they're going to do it for cutting social security. I have no idea if it will be enough moving forward but I have literally been waiting my adult life to see Democrats get aggressive on center-left issues and they did it and they over-performed.

taki15 wrote
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with Demmings and Crist getting creamed like they were some sacrificial lamb candidates.

I'm also curious why Democrats underperformed in New York. Even Schumer failed to clear 60% for the first time since he unseated D'Amato.

To your first point, I didn't pay much attention to Florida during the midterms because I just assumed it was gone, but I can't imagine Gerrymandering had anything to do with it. It's probably possible for a Democrat to win in Florida at some point but not now.

To your second point, Democrats also underperformed in California. I don't think Rick Caruso is going to end up being Los Angeles' Mayor but he did much better than I thought. I think I know why: the crime message mattered more in blue states because issues like women losing reproductive rights were never as dire a threat. Very disappointing.

[taki15]

The Republican show in Florida was put in place by DeSantis' skilled, albeit crooked, gerrymandering.

Florida has a large population of grumpy old men and women from the Midwest and other states that moved there just so they wouldn't have to pay state taxes. As they die off, they are replaced by even grumpier old men and women from other states. Many of the snowbirds who spend 6 months and a day a year in Florida and one day short of six months a year in their home states, time their moves so that they can vote in Florida instead of their home state.

The primary Spanish speaking radio stations in Florida with their misinformation and disinformation are controlled by the Republicans as well.

If Florida is going to come to its senses, it will take several more election cycles. The same is true of Texas which is even more heartbreaking considering the cruelty of the Republicans in charge there.

What saved democracy, as far as it was saved this time, was Gen Z which voted like their lives depended on it, which it does.

The reason the pollsters continue to get these things wrong is that they rely on calls to people who answer their phones no matter who is calling. Most savvy people, including almost all of Gen Z, do not answer their phones unless they know who it is who is calling.

The Democrats' almost giddy celebration, though, is premature. Although common sense prevailed in most key races, some of them were awfully close, meaning that half the country is still nuts. If the Republicans control the House, it will be run by Jim Jordan and his ilk no matter who the Speaker is. Watch for immediate calls for Biden's impeachment on whatever trumped up charge they can think of. Nothing will get done for the next two years for which the Republicans will once again try to put the blame on the Democrats.

With or without Trump, we are in for at least two more years of crazy.

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with Demmings and Crist getting creamed like they were some sacrificial lamb candidates.

I'm also curious why Democrats underperformed in New York. Even Schumer failed to clear 60% for the first time since he unseated D'Amato.

[Big Magilla]

The Democrats' almost giddy celebration, though, is premature.

This is absurd. It has yet to be seen how this actually shakes out since control of both chambers is still technically pending, but Democrats are poised to have delivered the best midterms to a sitting president in a generation. I don’t see anyone “giddy” about it. Pleasantly surprised and reaffirmed that they have good messages, yes.

Also, your characterization of how the House will act if they have a razor-thin majority is not entirely accurate.

I have enough things to deal with in my life without explaining myself in response to your constant, mean, nasty, putdowns. If you can't respond to someone without hurling insults at them, you are the one who is absurd.

[flipp525]

The Democrats' almost giddy celebration, though, is premature.

This is absurd. It has yet to be seen how this actually shakes out since control of both chambers is still technically pending, but Democrats are poised to have delivered the best midterms to a sitting president in a generation. I don’t see anyone “giddy” about it. Pleasantly surprised and reaffirmed that they have good messages, yes.

Also, your characterization of how the House will act if they have a razor-thin majority is not entirely accurate.

[Big Magilla]

The Republican show in Florida was put in place by DeSantis' skilled, albeit crooked, gerrymandering.

Florida has a large population of grumpy old men and women from the Midwest and other states that moved there just so they wouldn't have to pay state taxes. As they die off, they are replaced by even grumpier old men and women from other states. Many of the snowbirds who spend 6 months and a day a year in Florida and one day short of six months a year in their home states, time their moves so that they can vote in Florida instead of their home state.

The primary Spanish speaking radio stations in Florida with their misinformation and disinformation are controlled by the Republicans as well.

If Florida is going to come to its senses, it will take several more election cycles. The same is true of Texas which is even more heartbreaking considering the cruelty of the Republicans in charge there.

What saved democracy, as far as it was saved this time, was Gen Z which voted like their lives depended on it, which it does.

The reason the pollsters continue to get these things wrong is that they rely on calls to people who answer their phones no matter who is calling. Most savvy people, including almost all of Gen Z, do not answer their phones unless they know who it is who is calling.

The Democrats' almost giddy celebration, though, is premature. Although common sense prevailed in most key races, some of them were awfully close, meaning that half the country is still nuts. If the Republicans control the House, it will be run by Jim Jordan and his ilk no matter who the Speaker is. Watch for immediate calls for Biden's impeachment on whatever trumped up charge they can think of. Nothing will get done for the next two years for which the Republicans will once again try to put the blame on the Democrats.

With or without Trump, we are in for at least two more years of crazy.

[taki15]

What surprised me was how bad Democrats did in Florida compared to the rest of the country. They fielded their strongest candidates possible and yet they were routed by Rubio and DeSantis who aren't exactly widely beloved. It also seems that all the inroads Obama and Hillary made the past decade among Latinos, especially Cuban-Americans, were erased and those Miami-Dade districts have become again as hardcore Republicans as they were before.

[OscarGuy]

Trump will hold a grudge and his acolytes worship the ground he walks on. If De Santis runs, he will be raked over the cult's coals. I suspect that after a bitter and bloody primary that if De Santis somehow comes out on top (which he probably won't knowing the fanatics of Trump), Trump will demand his followers stay home, which would most likely cost De Santis critical states he needs to win, NC, GA, NV, WI, and AZ for sure with IA and OH the next most likely to fall. No one can win the presidency without most of those.

[Okri]

a) I don't think Boebert can moderate her tone, to be honest.

b) I think Musk could actually destroy Twitter. Wow.

c) I think Donald Trump just stated he sent federal agents to interfere in the Florida Gov. election on behalf of DeSantis/against Gwillum.

[Sabin]

Donald Trump has just said that if DeSantis runs he will release dirt on him, and that he knows more about DeSantis than anyone, except maybe DeSantis' wife.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/p ... -2024.html

Look, I know that the future of our country is in a perilous place right now. That being said, I have been promised a goddamn GOP civil war for almost a decade now and it just keeps not happening, but I think it's finally here. I have no doubt that a GOP civil war will have horrible unintended consequences... but I'm also going to eat this popcorn and watch it.

[flipp525]

I know it sounds insane, but I stick with my original prediction that the Democrats retain control of the House (with 220 seats, I predict).

[Big Magilla]

She's a loon. Loons only get loonier.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Can Boebert lose still? She's only 73 votes behind now.

Hope so, but let’s say she wins. What does Lauren Boebert do from here? Does she moderate her tone? Is that possible for someone like her? Or does she keep doubling down on something that clearly her constituency (and America writ-large) isn’t that into.