New Developments III

Big Magilla
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Re: New Developments III

Post by Big Magilla »

OscarGuy wrote:Not sure what you're talking about, Okri? The stroke? It doesn't seem like "Dr." Oz has made any headway in the race with that attack line. Oz hasn't closed the gap at all.
It was all over MSNBC and CNN Wednesday morning.

Fetterman is not fully recovered from his stroke. He is still not able to fully comprehend what people are saying but does fine visually when he can read a monitor which will be provided for him at Friday's debate. This is a common post-stroke occurrence and not something that should be tsk-tsk-ed about on the news. "Dr." Oz should be familiar with the situation and not making jokes about it as he reportedly has been.
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Re: New Developments III

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I don't know if Mehmet Oz has closed the gap but he's absolutely gaining in recent polling. Chalk it up to the GOP suddenly liking their chances in Pennsylvania more than Georgia so they're redirecting over to Oz after somehow magically discovering a candidate who's even more of a lost cause (Walker). Also, Fetterman has been off the stump for quite a while and his recent appearances have demonstrated a clear shift in speaking capacity. None of which should matter because one candidate clearly supports codifying Roe v. Wade and the other doesn't, and one candidate lives in Pennsylvania and the other isn't, but I can’t blame them. But we're seeing stuff like this.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... nitor.html

There is a lack of support from the DNC but that's also a two-way street. Fetterman hasn't done much to cozy up to them. But they want to keep the Senate so they'll send him resources. Fetterman has always been a wild card candidate. The good news is that Josh Shapiro is polling well above Doug Mastriano who is truly a nightmare candidate and hopefully he'll carry Fetterman over the line.
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Re: New Developments III

Post by OscarGuy »

Not sure what you're talking about, Okri? The stroke? It doesn't seem like "Dr." Oz has made any headway in the race with that attack line. Oz hasn't closed the gap at all.
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Re: New Developments III

Post by Okri »

Genuinely shook about how the media is reporting Fetterman to be honest. And given the lack of support from the DNC etc, also worried.
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Re: New Developments III

Post by taki15 »

What's really amazing was that Bernie Sanders' institute had proudly awarded her with a fellowship for her "progressive" policies and repudiated her only today, after years of sucking up to Assad, Putin, and Trump.
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Re: New Developments III

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After thirty (?) appearances on Tucker Carlson, Tulsi Gabbard has announced that she is leaving the Democratic Party, two years after we thought she already left.

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status ... 0696185859

I posted something when Andrew Yang announced his Forward Party and I'll do it here as well. Back in 2020, I thought a few candidates set themselves up to have some sort of political impact in the future. Obviously, Pete Buttigieg inside the party. And both Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard outside the party. It's a bit harder to pin Yang down. Gabbard is easy to pin down. The only question is how and why is she compromised. But she's far more dangerous in my opinion, because she comes off very well on a debate stage and modulates well to whatever platform she's appearing on. She holds a lot of sway over white voters. She's excellent at choosing emotional issues that are easy to remember, even though it always involves criticizing the Democratic Party. Calling out radical Muslims (criticizing Obama). Supporting Bernie Sanders (criticizing Clinton). Ending foreign wars (but then criticizing Biden). But always by saying "she's concerned about" something.

But most importantly, watching her on that debate stage, I just thought to myself "We're not done with this person." The question is what does that look like, especially as she was leaving government? Well, we're going to find out now. She has a short window to capitalize on her "I left the Democratic Party" energy. So, she's not going to mount an obnoxious primary against Biden or Harris. She's going to run third party or within the GOP. I think she could be reasonably effective as a third party spoiler. Regardless of my distaste for her, she's very charismatic. I (sadly) know many people that would vote for her over Biden or Trump. But I suspect the latter (GOP run) where she will rake in a ton of money through interviews, largely avoid criticizing any of them except Liz Cheney, win no states, but end the primary reasonably better liked than the base than anyone else could do who isn't an anti-choice absolutist. But what then? She's either a dark horse for running mate consideration (I say this only because it would be just Kamala Harris' luck), or she joins some Green, Libertarian, or Forward Party ticket in some capacity. And then what? Books? Move to a new state and run for Congress there? Leapfrog from one third party ticket to another every four years?

I think Tulsi Gabbard is destined to be a barely remembered footnote but she has a short window to cause some damage and this is it.
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Re: New Developments III

Post by Greg »

OscarGuy wrote:Unfortunately, most of the big Floridian cities, the Dem strongholds, are coastal, which means if there's a huge hurricane hit, it's more likely to come out of the Dems' hides than the Pubes'.
Fwiw, the area of Florida hardest hit was Fort Meyers/Cape Coral, which is fairly Republican.
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Re: New Developments III

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SCOTUS to rule on Voting Right Act this week. It's getting real dark.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/oc ... -democracy
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Re: New Developments III

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Unfortunately, most of the big Floridian cities, the Dem strongholds, are coastal, which means if there's a huge hurricane hit, it's more likely to come out of the Dems' hides than the Pubes'.
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Re: New Developments III

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The headline in the article you posted reads "Pollster defends survey showing DeSantis trailing Crist", which says it all. (Maybe the headline was different when you posted it?) I cannot see any reason why this stunt would backfire with the average Floridian. But even if it does, if DeSantis does a good job handling the storm it'll be a moot point anyway.

How ironic it would be if those who are cheering these "evacuations" to Martha's Vineyard are the same ones who stay put during the storm. I don't wish death on anyone, but it would be nice if their voting registration statuses just washed away.
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Re: New Developments III

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Although we don't know the impact that DeSantis' gross political stunt, I'd be surprised if it results in him losing. Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to governor this century, and the margin of victory has been close (1%) for the last three elections. I'll just take DeSantis winning by an embarrassingly small margin. Trump will have a field day with that.

Let's just cross our fingers that the DeSantis/Trump war splits the GOP, forcing Trump to run third party MAGA party, and ultimately gives Joe Biden an unprecedented fifty state sweep. I wanted my third party Trump MAGA run back in 2016 and nothing has changed.
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Re: New Developments III

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I wouldn't buy it. One poll is not to be taken as gospel. It's over a month until election day and I would wait for another couple of polls to see if the stunt truly backfired or it's just a blip. Also, the polling firm has no real history and based on prior polls of the Florida Governor's race, only one of them have even had Crist within the margin of error and he was still down vs. De Santis.
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Re: New Developments III

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New poll shows Crist ahead of DeSantis by 6 points in Florida's governor's race in wake of DeSantis' sending migrants to Martha's Vineyard:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ee94a35ddb
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Re: New Developments III

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Two Texans celebrated milestone birthdays in their state yesterday. Beto O'Rourke turned 50 and my sister Kathy turned 65.

There is a parallel. My brother-in-law and youngest nephew, 25, have been campaigning for Beto. They live in Denton, which is a Democratic leaning city north of Dallas. When knocking on doors last weekend, only one resident refused to talk to them without indicating why. Everyone else, despite their party affiliation, said they would vote for Beto even though they didn't particularly care for him. The hate for Abbott is that strong.
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Re: New Developments III

Post by Sabin »

I wonder how ol’ Donny will get out of this one!

Truly, I don’t know if it’s possible.
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