flipp525 wrote
I said from the moment I saw The Eyes of Tammy Faye (in a sneak preview before anyone on this Board had seen it) that the last fifteen minutes of the film as well as Chastain’s scene with the AIDS patient, placed her squarely in win contention and I’ve never faltered from that assertion. I never doubted she would be nominated (her nomination was seen as seriously endangered because of poor box office here and elsewhere) and I have her penciled in as my winner and pretty much have since I saw the film.
So, it’s not like she’s not been talked about here. I still think that ultimately she’ll walk away with this.
Big Magilla wrote
When Sabin says he doesn't see anyone talking about Chastain, I'm pretty sure he means the bloggers/prognosticators on other sites.
Yup, that's what I meant. There are also some friends with whom I have an Oscar discourse and none of them take her chances seriously, but also they haven't seen the film. I have. I did write in my review that I didn't know if she'd get nominated, but I hoped she would and I wouldn't mind her winning. To your credit, flipp, you've been far more confident in this projection and I absolutely haven't taken it to heart. So, I definitely think you deserve credit if it does come true.
Of the Best Actress nominees, I have no strong preference. I like Chastain, Colman, and Cruz about equally for different reasons. I could pick a different one each day for a different reason. But this is the most I've liked her in roughly ten years and whenever she does win her Oscar (if it happens) it's hard to imagine it being for a better piece of work.
I said from the moment I saw The Eyes of Tammy Faye (in a sneak preview before anyone on this Board had seen it) that the last fifteen minutes of the film as well as Chastain’s scene with the AIDS patient, placed her squarely in win contention and I’ve never faltered from that assertion. I never doubted she would be nominated (her nomination was seen as seriously endangered because of poor box office here and elsewhere) and I have her penciled in as my winner and pretty much have since I saw the film.
So, it’s not like she’s not been talked about here. I still think that ultimately she’ll walk away with this.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
Lack of screen time was not a deterrent to Kidman the first time she won, and it wasn't a deterrent to Simone Signoret and Patricia Neal among others, nor should it be, otherwise we would just be anointing the performer with the most screen time as if that meant they had the "mostest on the ball".
On that same note, Dench had one of the shortest roles of any winner ever when she won for Shakespeare in Love. If she wins again for Belfast, as unlikely as that may be, she will be the all-time champion of wins for limited screen time.
This category is indeed the one that will hold the most drama at both the SAG awards and the Oscars.
The large percentage of SAG voters who vote only for nominees also nominated for an Oscar will throw their support behind either Chastain, Colman, or Kidman, to list them alphabetically. Which one has the upper hand? Possibly Kidman whose Globe win would give her a one-two punch leading into the Oscars. If either Chastain or Colman wins, it could give either of them a leg up on Kidman, being the fresher winner. A win for either Gaga or Hudson would rend SAG useless as precursor. I don't see that happening.
If Oscar rubber stamps the SAG choice, it could keep SAG relevant for future races. If they go in a different direction, it could break the precursor spell for years to come.
Kidman and Colman are former Best Actress winners. Cruz is a former Best Supporting Actress winner. Chastain is a former nominee in both categories. Stewart is a first-time nominee. All of them are in films that have failed to set the film world on fire. The only one who is in a film that is more hated than loved is Stewart. The others are in films that people either moderately liked, moderately disliked, or merely shrugged off. I really don't see Stewart winning, which means that the award will likely go to winless former nominee Chastain or make a two-time winner of Colman, Cruz, or Kidman. It might actually come down to voting for who they personally like best. We almost certainly will have to wait until the opening of the envelope to find out.
We could wait until the Screen Actor's Guild announces their choice or the BAFTA, and I'm sure that would clear that up a bit, but I'm convinced regardless of any verdict that the focus of attention for the 94th Academy Awards will remain this race.
But the most interesting thing of this race is how none of the actresses are in Best Picture nominees. It's the first since 2005. But that's not quite fair. Had the Best Picture roster been expanded to ten, there's no way Walk the Line would've missed. Same thing is probably true of 2003's lineup. In America probably would've made that list. But either way, it's a pretty rare occurrence for the two races to completely split like that. I have to wonder what that says about Being the Ricardos and The Lost Daughter. Yes, they arguably had the most cross-Academy industry support with their three nominations each, but what does it say about their level of enthusiasm when they couldn't elbow in past Nightmare Alley as opposed to something like The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, or Spencer, which were never in the race?
Anyway, where do we stand now? It feels like Olivia Colman and Nicole Kidman are the frontrunners but from a top level, their performances have the smallest % of screen-time and feel the least dominant of their fellow nominees.
Nicole Kidman should probably be considered the frontrunner although not for any meaningful reason. The Hollywood Foreign Press has zero crossover with the Academy. I don't think she quite has a personal narrative like the last two winners of this category, but she has a few things working in her favor: it's been almost twenty years since her last win; her performance has been a focal point of attention on social media all year and she defied (most) expectations; and she's playing a real person. There's something else that I think works in her favor: there's a little bit of a personal quality to her take on Lucille Ball. It's the story of a middle-aged actress who has to struggle romantically, professionally, and creatively to be seen and survive, and Nicole Kidman (as beautiful a human to ever step the Earth) conveys that by transforming herself yet again.
Working against her? It's the shortest performance % of the lot. And it's not really a dominant performance. She's part of an ensemble. I think there's a reason why no performance in an Aaron Sorkin film has ever won the Oscar.
If someone is the runner up, I think it might be Olivia Colman. The Lost Daughter probably has the most cross-industry support as a film with writing nominations as well as a surprise nomination for Jessie Buckley. Working in her favor is the fact that everybody in the industry is currently in love with her. I won't repeat a nominations breakdown I did recently for just the vast number of nominations she's received in the last four years but she's picking them up at an insane rate. The ideas within The Lost Daughter about motherhood are likely to have some fans.
Working against her? I suspect that this film will provoke the most divisive reactions among viewers between love it/hate it. It's arguably the most European film nominated and it's in competition with an Almodovar film. I'm also not quite sure it's showy enough. But she might be the best bet for a plurality.
I don't see anyone talking about Jessica Chastain's chances. It might be foolish to count her out. When we talk about Jessica Chastain, it feels like we're describing someone who is nominated every year... but isn't. This is her first since Zero Dark Thirty. Why is that? I'd imagine she was passed over for previous roles because of competition but maybe they just weren't enough of a change of pace. Well, this one certainly is! The Eyes of Tammy Faye probably goes down pretty easy for Academy voters. She undergoes the biggest physical transformation of the group. It's been pointed out online that she would continue a trend of an acting award being coupled with a makeup award. It's also arguably the showiest performance of the group.
Working against her? Whether or not enough voters see the film. I don't get the sense that it's in the conversation. It bombed pretty hard... but these days everything does. The RT score is pretty low... but still better than Being the Ricardos. Do they watch it.
And now we get to two performances that should be out of the conversation but can't be. Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers to start. No Globe nomination, no SAG nomination, and she failed to make the BAFTA long list. But she won more critic's awards for Best Actress than anyone else this year to my count. She certainly did the best with the major groups. And the film is just a gift to the actress. It's a remarkable spotlight. If the race goes through something of a reset and enough voters check it out, that might be enough. It's older Academy friendly for sure.
Working against her? Well, everything I listed above but I also don't get the sense that Parallel Mothers is the international hot ticket of the year. When was the last time the Academy found enough bandwidth for two? While she's already won, I don't sense enthusiasm to give her a second.
Finally, Kristen Stewart for Spencer. This has to be the personal narrative of the category. A divisive performance in a divisive film. A sole nominee. No SAG nomination. No Globe nomination. Working in her favor the most is pretty simple: she has the largest % of screen-time of any other actress by far. (NOTE: apparently not ) That's not warranted per se but that's something she has in common with the last two Best Actress winners.
Working against her? A lot. Maybe the most. But at this point, she's in the race. It doesn't matter if people love her or hate her (both performance and actor). It only matters that she gets more votes than anyone else, which could be 21%. We'll know when the envelope is open.
Last edited by Sabin on Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
