I think this is probably Viola Davis' best nominated performance and possibly the best of the nominees in a good crop. But I don't think Viola Davis is going to win. Yes, Viola Davis won the SAG which is a major predictor of who is going to win but she didn't have to compete with Andra Day and I think that would've changed the vote. Not simply because there are two black actresses competing against each other, but because they're both playing very similar parts: real life singers who struggle valiantly against systems of control. Billie Holiday a bit more tragic as she descends into drugs, doomed love, and death, whereas Ma Rainey is more proud, in control, and confident. But these are not dissimilar roles.MaxWilder wrote
I know the anonymous ballots are pretty much meaningless, but I was pleased to see a couple of people rule out McDormand because she already has two Oscars.
Daniel Day-Lewis won a third just five years after his second, but his performance was so overwhelmingly acclaimed that no one seemed to mind that Meryl Streep (having pre-opened the envelope) didn't bother with the usual 2-3 seconds of suspense.
If McDormand were about to win her third, we’d be seeing think-pieces asking whether she’s the greatest ever.
I think it’ll be Viola Davis. I think Carey Mulligan deserves it but I can’t be upset if Davis wins. I can’t see her retiring with just one best supporting actress prize.
I can't prove that Andra Day hurts Viola Davis' chances but I can't imagine her presence helps her any. The question then becomes who does this benefit, McDormand or Mulligan? We can imagine hypotheticals of how the BAFTA race would've gone if Mulligan were nominated all day but it doesn't change the fact that Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. And over the last ten years, BAFTA has had a pretty good track record of forecasting the eventual winner (save for Riva over Lawrence in 2012). My hunch is that Davis, Day, McDormand, and Mulligan could each take close to a quarter of the vote. More than any vote in recent memory, I want to see the vote breakdown.