Reza wrote
I think you are really underestimating L.A. Confidential and I don't buy the fact that it would have been overlooked for wins in the top two categories just because it was a flop. I think it would have easily won in both categories over the Van Sant bore despite Harvey's efforts. L.A. and Hanson won or were on many critics and awards groups that year as strong second choice nominees for the Academy to ignore.
I think L.A. Confidential is an excellent film and should have won among those nominees (or any in 1997). But just because a film wins every critics award doesn't make it a hit with the Academy. I do think largely the race might have come down to a Good Will Hunting vs. L.A. Confidential hype vs. quality showdown but there's a reason why usually the film that wins the most critics awards (Pulp Fiction, Goodfellas) doesn't always win. It's easy to forget this now but the big knock on the film was that the plot was too confusing to win. This seems insane today but it was the "smart" choice.
That being said, what I think L.A. Confidential has going for it is that without Titanic sucking up all the air out of the room, it's possible that the film gets a second look with Academy voters and who knows? With Titanic out of the way, I think it becomes likelier that L.A. Confidential picks up a couple more nominations, maybe Best Costume Design and Sound Effects Editing, and notches up to eleven nominations, making it the nominations leader and back then the film with the most nominations had a pretty impressive track record of ending up winning.
Full disclosure: Good Will Hunting is a movie that I don't think is a bore nor do I think is a very good film, but I certainly don't think it deserves to get anywhere near winning Best Picture. That said no matter how big a holiday hit it was, As Good As It Gets was bigger. And I suspect an Oscar race without Titanic means that Oscar voters are just a little more open to other possibilities. William Goldman was on record saying that until Oscar morning and James L. Brooks missed out, he was convinced As Good As It Gets could be the movie to beat Titanic. Without Titanic in the race, I think James L. Brooks has a much better chance of getting a Best Director and the film itself becomes a little more viable to win with its eight nominations. Something I forgot until today: As Good As It Gets beat Good Will Hunting at the WGA Awards so perhaps the hype might not have been as widespread as we think. Either way (forgive me for putting it like this) both As Good As It Gets and Good Will Hunting are movies about "people." They're human stories. I think one takes votes away from the other.
Maybe in this alternate reality, you're right.
Reza wrote
Brooks would have been the obvious beneficiary of the empty slot while I think The Sweet Hereafter (over Boogie Nights -too kinky - and Wag - too quirky) would have made the Best Picture list.
You could be right. The Sweet Hereafter clearly had its fans. I had to look up Fine Line Features' list of releases. They do not have many Best Picture nominees to their credit. Only Shine. So, in theory with The Sweet Hereafter they are operating at the top of their power.
Amistad had nominations from the DGA and PGA but it was clearly wasn't connecting like everyone involved had hoped and was plagued by a plagiarism charm that wasn't going away.
Really at the end of the day, the question is if a movie can't get a Best Director nomination over not just Atom Egoyan for The Sweet Hereafter but also Peter Cattaneo for The Full Monty then it has no chance. The Academy wasn't going to honor Amistad, Boogie Nights, or Wag the Dog. They were going to honor The Full Monty and The Sweet Hereafter. The narrative of the indie revolution continues one year after a slate that includes Fargo, Secrets and Lies, and Shine.
Does Titanic's absence open up room for The Sweet Hereafter to pick up a Best Cinematography nomination for Paul Sarossy, who came in runner-up at LAFCAA, or Best Original Score for Mychael Danna, who would end up winning for Life of Pi and also had The Ice Storm out that year?