Golden Globes Predictions Contest

[Sabin]

SOME GENERAL THOUGHTS ON RACES THAT PERPLEX ME:

BEST MOTION PICTURE: COMEDY OR MUSICAL
I think we can all agree that at least from an Oscar-friendly perspective, this has been an underwhelming year. So damn the HFP for not correctly listing either Bohemian Rhapsody or A Star is Born in their correct category! This is basically a three-way race between The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice. I feel increasingly confident in dismissing Vice as too divisive to win here. There will be other chances to honor this film if they do at all. One would imagine that Green Book's directing nomination gives it a lift over The Favourite... Right?

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: DRAMA
Uncle. I concede that it is becoming increasingly easy to see the chink in Bradley Cooper's armor. People love Bohemian Rhapsody. This group loves Rami Malek. And he's playing a real person. I have absolutely no idea who is going to win. All I know is if they love Bradley Cooper, they have two other opportunities to vote for him while this category is it for Malek.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: COMEDY OR MUSICAL
I mostly wish that either Bradley Cooper or Rami Malek were pushed to Comedy or Musical because I'm tired of thinking about this race being between these Bale and Mortensen. Because who cares? Christian Bale does yeoman work in a movie that absolutely lets him down. Actually forget that. Christian Bale gives a performance that starts off by basically apologizing for his performance. Whereas Viggo Mortensen is almost pointlessly inspired. Viggo is quite good in Green Book but it's his fault that our journey through Jim Crowe is seen through the eyes of Joey from Friends. And who really wants to see an acceptance speech where he apologizes for using the N-word? If I had to guess... Christian Bale has already won. Viggo Mortensen hasn't. Can Robert Redford just get up there and say something statesman-like?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is another one that gives me a headache. Then again, it's my goddamn fault I haven't seen If Beale Street Could Talk. It's been a year, fellas. It's been a year. Anyway.

Regina King doesn't have a SAG nomination so that likely means she isn't going to win, right? But she's also nominated for Best Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series. But she's up against Amy Adams and it seems unlikely that she's going to beat Amy Adams there, so she's probably going to win here. Unless Amy Adams wins here and Regina King wins over there. They probably want to give If Beale Street Could Talk something and this is really their only chance. Unless of course they don't. Also, if they want to give Laura Dern or Patricia Arquette the Golden Globe for Best Actress, they're going to want to give Amy Adams something, right? In which case they will honor her here. Unless of course they don't because they've given her two Golden Globes already. And, y'know, she's not that great in Vice anyway. Also, there's no reason on Earth why they wouldn't want to give Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz the Golden Globe because really they have extremely high profile roles in a movie that the HFP almost certainly likes more. Except they've won in the past. Which as we've learned time and time again doesn't matter at all. So... I guess Regina King wins. But here's the thing: I'm going to be wrong. Like, for sure.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron has to win this one, right? It's just like in 2007 when Julian Schnabel beat The Coen Brothers. Unless of course it's just like 1983 when Barbra Streisand beat Ingmar Bergman. Which is funny because Barbra Streisand didn't win an acting award that year. She just won Director and Picture. So... it's Bradley Cooper? Also, what if better movies were nominated? Just throwing that out there.

BEST SCREENPLAY
This could conceivably go to three films. Green Book, The Favourite, and Vice. Green Book has the fact that Tony Lip's fucking kid wrote it. The Favourite has the fact that it's the most writerly film for sure. But Vice has something else going for it. The "superstar screenwriter" factor. Just like Aaron Sorkin won for Steve Jobs, Quentin Tarantino won for Django Unchained, and Spike Jonze won for Her, Adam McKay is the most "known." So, I'm inclined to go out on a limb and say that after winning nothing for The Big Short, the HFP makes amends by honoring him here. Hopefully, he is snubbed by the Academy just like Aaron Sorking for Steve Jobs. Also, what if better movies came out this year? Just throwing that out there.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My initial gut feeling was that Alexandre Desplat would win for Isle of Dogs but he's already been honored by them as recently as last year, so perhaps not. Justin Hurwitz was honored for La La Land a couple of years ago. So, it's between two films and the question which will they let go home empty handed, Mary Poppins Returns or Black Panther? But increasingly I find the question I ask myself is "What headline am I most likely to read on Monday?" "Green Book wins three, Black Panther zero?" Or, y'know... "Black Panther wins only won."

[Big Magilla]

Picture (Drama): A Star Is Born
Picture (Comedy or Musical): Green Book
Animated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Actor (Drama): Rami Malek
Best Actress (Drama): Glenn Close
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical): Viggo Mortensen
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical): Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King
Best Director: Bradley Cooper
Best Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Song: 'Shallow' A Star is Born
Best Score: Black Panther

Standing Ovations: 2

[CalWilliam]

Picture (Drama): A Star Is Born
Picture (Comedy or Musical): Green Book
Animated: Spider-Man: into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Actor (Drama): Bradley Cooper
Best Actress (Drama): Glenn Close
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical): Viggo Mortensen
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical): Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Screenplay: Green Book
Best Song: 'Shallow' A Star is Born
Best Score: Mary Poppins Returns

Standing Ovations: 7

[mlrg]

PICTURE DRAMA: A Star Is Born
PICTURE MUSICAL/COMEDY: Green Book
DIRECTOR: Bradley Cooper
ACTRESS DRAMA: Lady Gaga
ACTOR DRAMA: Rami Malek
ACTRESS MUSICAL/COMEDY: Emily Blunt
ACTOR MUSICAL/COMEDY: Viggo Mortensen
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali
SCREENPLAY: Green Book
SCORE: First Man
SONG: Shallow
ANIMATED FILM: Isle of Dogs
FOREIGN LANGUAGE: Roma

STANDING OVATIONS: 8

[FilmFan720]

PICTURE DRAMA: A Star Is Born
PICTURE MUSICAL/COMEDY: The Favourite (Green Book)
DIRECTOR: Bradley Cooper
ACTRESS DRAMA: Lady Gaga
ACTOR DRAMA: Rami Malek
ACTRESS MUSICAL/COMEDY: Olivia Colman (Emily Blunt)
ACTOR MUSICAL/COMEDY: Christian Bale (Viggo Mortensen)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Rachel Weisz
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali
SCREENPLAY: Vice (The Favourite)
SCORE: First Man
SONG: Shallow
ANIMATED FILM: Isle of Dogs
FOREIGN LANGUAGE: Roma

STANDING OVATIONS: 5

[Sabin]

I'll probably tinker away at this for some time.

Best Motion Picture -- Drama: A Star is Born
Best Motion Picture -- Comedy or Musical: Green Book
Best Animated Feature: Isle of Dogs
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Actor in a Motion Picture -- Drama: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (Bradley Cooper)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture -- Comedy or Musical: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Best Actress in a Motion Picture -- Drama: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Best Actress in a Motion Picture -- Comedy or Musical: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Screenplay: Adam McKay, Vice
Best Song: "Shallow," A Star is Born
Best Score: Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther

Standing Ovations: 8

[anonymous1980]

I'll join my own contest:

MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: A Star is Born
MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL or COMEDY: Green Book
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL or COMEDY: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL or COMEDY: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (RU: Timothee Chalamet)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
DIRECTOR FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (RU: Alfonso Cuaron)
SCREENPLAY FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Nick Villelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book (RU: The Favourite)
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Roma
ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (RU: Incredibles 2)
ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A MOTION PICTURE: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
ORIGINAL SONG FOR A MOTION PICTURE: "Shallow", A Star is Born

Standing ovations: 4.

[The Original BJ]

In recent years, this ceremony has provided some jolts, whether by setting the template that the other groups ended up following (remember how few people predicted Rockwell/Janney last year?) or just going their own way completely (Aaron Taylor-Johnson, La La Land's screenplay, Kate Winslet/Aaron Sorkin, The Grand Budapest Hotel). So, here's hoping to some (pleasant) surprises this weekend.

PICTURE (DRAMA): A Star is Born
PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL): The Favourite
DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuarón
ACTOR (DRAMA): Bradley Cooper
ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL): Christian Bale
ACTRESS (DRAMA): Lady Gaga
ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL): Olivia Colman
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King
SCREENPLAY: The Favourite
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Roma
ANIMATED FEATURE: Isle of Dogs
ORIGINAL SONG: "Shallow"
ORIGINAL SCORE: Mary Poppins Returns

Standing Ovations: 9

[Precious Doll]

As I have absolutely no idea I'll start:

Picture (Drama): A Star is Born
Picture (Comedy or Musical): Mary Poppins Returns
Animated: Spider-Man: into the Spider-Verse (Incredibles 2)
Foreign Language: Roma
Best Actor (Drama): Rami Malek
Best Actress (Drama): Lady Gaga
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical): Robert Redford
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical): Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King
Best Director: Bradley Cooper
Best Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Song: 'Shallow' A Star is Born
Best Score: Mary Poppins Returns

Standing Ovations: 7

Changes: Bit of a problem when the leading lady gets lost in an ensemble. So out with Emily Blunt and in with Olivia Colman.

[anonymous1980]

Here are the rules to refresh your memory.

1. Pick a winner and an optional runner-up in all the FILM categories.

2. A correct prediction with a runner-up earns 2 points.

3. A correct runner-up prediction earns 1 point.

4. A correct prediction without a runner-up earns 3 points.

5. If three or less people get the right prediction, that prediction will earn them double points.

6. If you're the only one with the correct prediction, your prediction will earn you TRIPLE points.

7. Most accumulated points win.

8. Deadline is the moment Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh hit the stage and start their opening monologue.

OPTIONAL BONUS TIE-BREAKER QUESTION (3 points)

How many full standing ovations will there be?