Big Magilla wrote
A few thoughts:
Lol, well you're right about that. These are certainly a a few thoughts!
Big Magilla wrote
Best Picture
Gleiberman has gone nuts. I liked Black Panther. It's a more substantial film than other comic book adaptations, but it's still a comic book adaptation. If there were comic book adaptations once in a blue moon, then maybe the majority of Oscar voters would consider them worthy of their votes but when the marketplace is gutted with their ilk and they're the only kinds of films all but guaranteed to bring in the big bucks, voting one of them a Best Picture award would be tantamount to giving up and throwing in the towel, which is what he's advocating. If it wins it will because more voters liked it than any other film, not because it would be good for the industry.
First of all, saying there's too many of them for one of them to be seen as special is ridiculous. Would ascribe that to any other genre?
Also, he's not exactly saying that it's throwing in the towel. This isn't the resistance, Magilla. He's saying that they're not just a financial boon. They're an era. They're a part of history. Part of what the Academy has done over the ages is honor films that captured the public's imagination and the zeitgeist. Plus, y'know, it has to be good, but good is subjective and this hasn't been a great year for Academy-friendly movies, so why not?
At the end of the day, giving Best Picture to Black Panther is more meaningful than giving one to The Artist.
Big Magilla wrote
Best Actor
Ethan Hawke, like Bradley Cooper, has four previous Oscar nominations. Being shut out at the Globes and SAG is problematic, but if he's nominated, he will have a strong level of support from not just actors, but writers who nominated him twice in the past. He could still win. It's also possible that that Cooper and Hawke will cancel each other out and Malek will emerge the winner. It could be the male version of the 1950 Best Actress race with Judy Holliday triumphing over Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson.
How are Cooper and Hawke like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson? There's no desperate need to honor both of them, or really either one of them if the competition was better. If Darkest Hour came out of this year, does anyone have any doubt that Gary Oldman would prevail? Neither one of them is a previous two-time Oscar winner or star from a bygone era? But wouldn't it make more sense for Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek to be Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson, because both of them were basically playing forgotten legends. Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek are playing doomed musicians. So... wouldn't that make Ethan Hawke... like Judy Holliday (this is the wackiest post).
Big Magilla wrote
Best Actress
Glenn Close will be nominated and she will win. There is no other active performer considered "owed" as much as Close. If she were competing last year against Frances McDormand she wouldn't have stood a chance, but this year with no clear favorite (whichever way you want to spell the word), she is too formidable a force to be denied.
The Academy doesn't really care about who is "owed" like they used to, and Lady Gaga is the clear favorite.
A thought about Glenn Close. I think the person who is really ruining her chances is Olivia Colman. Glenn Close might be The Contender with Gravitas, but Olivia Colman gave The Performance with Gravitas. She's taking all of the awards that Glenn Close needed to say "Hey, look at me!" So far, Glenn Close has won two awards: The New Mexico Film Critics Circle and the San Diego Film Critics Society Awards. Heck, Lady Gaga has more awards, including The National Board of Review. I'd argue that The National Board of Review being comfortable enough with Lady Gaga to give her Best Actress means that Glenn Close is in trouble.
Big Magilla wrote
Best Supporting Actor
The argument that Mahershala Ali is shoehorned into this category because he's black and therefore seen by his film's producers as subservient to his white co-star being campaigned as lead goes away when you are aware that it was Ali himself who started the campaign. If he doesn't win, it will either be because they liked Richard E. Grant or someone else better or because other the dirty tricksters have done their joball too well. Who dug up those meddlesome relatives, anyway?
This is being talked about elsewhere, but one of the people you're talking about is his brother. He, like, didn't need to be dug up.
Personally, I do not in any way shape or form think that the real life people must be consulted to make the production. To wit:
New York Times Arts headline
Ruth Bader Ginsburg reviewed several drafts of the new movie about her, "On the Basis of Sex." As her daughter, Jane Ginsburg, put it, “There wasn’t going to be a movie if my mother wasn’t comfortable with it.”
Well, way to go, guys! Can't imagine why this movie dull as dirt.
But as for Green Book, I have no difficulty believing the brother because I've seen the movie. This didn't happen, at least not like this. It's not a credible piece of storytelling.
Big Magilla wrote
Best Supporting Actress
They've kind of coalesced around Regina King on this one, but if there's an upset, how about Nicole Kidman? She's not someone people really think about giving a second Oscar to, but this year she has a shot at both Best Actress for Destroyer, which is not likely to happen and Supporting Actress for Boy Erased which seems the better bet.
Boy Erased would seem like the better bet if she was turning up anywhere but she's really not. And I have to ask, if in this weak of a category where they're turning to Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, admist the Kidmanissaince, doesn't that speak more to her performance not being that good?
Big Magilla wrote
Best Director
Some may vote for Cooper here and not in the other categories for which he will likely be nominated, but if anyone is considered "due" in this race, it's Spike Lee.
In any case, it would be nice to see someone not being highly touted win in at least of the major categories.
Unquestionably, Spike Lee the most "due" for his career.
Last year, Christopher Nolan was more "due" than Guillermo Del Toro. George Miller was more "due" than Alejandro G. Inarritu. Michael Haneke and David O. Russell were more "due" than Ang Lee. Terrence Malick was more "due" than Michel Hazanavicius. David Fincher was more "due' than Tom Hooper.
It's not about who's due. It's about who's deserving. I'd have an easier time fathoming a Spike Lee Oscar win if BlacKkKlansman was a more visceral achievement, instead of an amiable.
But, look, I'm with you. If Oscar night means watching Bradley Cooper win three Oscars, I will be miserable. I say this as somebody who thinks Bradley Cooper already should have won three Oscars! I like Bradley Cooper.