Steve McQueen
Martin Scorsese
David O. Russell
Alfonso Cuaron
Paul Greengrass
DGA Nominations Tomorrow
Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
My predictions:
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Jean Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Jean Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
A pondering…
Can you believe it was merely one year ago when Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper, and Kathryn Bigelow all got nominated over David O. Russell? He may have been nominated for The Fighter (over Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit) but is it possible people don't like him? American Hustle is well-liked, but tomorrow morning will Russell again be the one sitting by the sidelines?
Can you believe it was merely one year ago when Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper, and Kathryn Bigelow all got nominated over David O. Russell? He may have been nominated for The Fighter (over Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit) but is it possible people don't like him? American Hustle is well-liked, but tomorrow morning will Russell again be the one sitting by the sidelines?
"How's the despair?"
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
And, of course, if Jean-Marc Vallée shows up, I'll throw my hands up in the air and howl Bennett Miller's name in vain.
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
Not only that, but my rule of thumb for DGA as of late has been to take two or three steps back from whatever would represent the most vanguard possible Oscar slate (which would then naturally allow for Oscar to take one step toward "righting the balance," at least among electric youthers). In nearly every year for the last decade and change, the DGA represented a palpably more old-guard/middlebrow friendly entity. (Tom Hooper, anyone?) So, I think once you allow for the two undeniable gimmes -- McQueen and Cuarón -- you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the more reactionary among the remaining candidates. So, yes, I see the exact same slate as you, Tee. Russell (has any other formerly renegade-ish filmmaker been more amply rewarded for playing it safe?), Greengrass and Payne join the other two.Mister Tee wrote:My gut feeling after that is Payne -- I think younger folk here underestimate how much old-timers relate to Nebraska (a film that's pretty consistently over-performed this season).
And, naturally, I'm hoping against hope that the latter two make way for some combination of Jonze, the Coens or even Scorsese at the Oscars. Though I disliked Nebraska as much as anything this year, I'd much rather see Payne get in for staying true to his vision than to see Greengrass snare a nod for ripping every page from out of Kathryn Bigelow's latest playbook (and none too enthusiastically at that).
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
I expect Curaon and McQueen for sure; Russell and Jonze probably and either Grenngrass or the Coens. Anyone else would surprise me.
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
My rule of thumb for DGA is, think in terms of the five most likely best picture nominees; leave lone directors for the directing branch of the Academy. (Though Spike Jonze did manage to snag one in 1999, when we had fonder hopes for that year's Oscars)
So, Cuaron/McQueen/Russell are no-brainers. After that it gets murkier. I think, despite all the "who'll give it number one votes?" distraction, Captain Phillips is next in line (it would be Greengrass' first from the DGA). My gut feeling after that is Payne -- I think younger folk here underestimate how much old-timers relate to Nebraska (a film that's pretty consistently over-performed this season). But the Fincher/Scorsese analogy might pan out, as well.
I doubt anyone beyond that could surprise -- a contention I won't be repeating on Nominations Morning, given last year's chaos.
So, Cuaron/McQueen/Russell are no-brainers. After that it gets murkier. I think, despite all the "who'll give it number one votes?" distraction, Captain Phillips is next in line (it would be Greengrass' first from the DGA). My gut feeling after that is Payne -- I think younger folk here underestimate how much old-timers relate to Nebraska (a film that's pretty consistently over-performed this season). But the Fincher/Scorsese analogy might pan out, as well.
I doubt anyone beyond that could surprise -- a contention I won't be repeating on Nominations Morning, given last year's chaos.
Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
I second mlrg. Spike Jonze and Alexander Payne have decent chances of sneaking in but it's going to be Alfonso Cuaron, Paul Greengrass, Steve McQueen, David O. Russell, and getting his 11th DGA nomination Martin Scorsese.
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Re: DGA Nominations Tomorrow
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Wolf of Wall Street
no gut no glory: Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Wolf of Wall Street
no gut no glory: Blue Jasmine
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DGA Nominations Tomorrow
The DGA announces their nominations tomorrow, which could help to give a lot of focus to some of these Best Picture nominees. In this age of more than 5 nominees, a DGA fail doesn't mean you're out of the game, but it doesn't help a lot.
In the 4 years since the Best Picture expansion, only 1 DGA nominee hasn't led to a Best Picture nominee (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo -- although that film ended up with a surprising 5 nominations). That means that we can assume that all the films cited tomorrow will pick up Best Picture nominees. Assuming that the 3 frontrunners all pick up DGA nods (American Hustle, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave), that means that 2 other films tomorrow should see their Best Picture chances solidify tomorrow.
That said, who do we think is going to show up? Martin Scorsese would seem a pretty strong bet (although his film probably needs this nomination the least), and Spike Jonze would seem like a likely fifth nominee. Alexander Payne seems like a strong alternate to those five. Paul Greengrass has never been nominated by the DGA, but his film feels very much like a directorial achievement that could show up here. The Coen Brothers have never done exceptionally well with the DGA -- they have 2 nominations and a win, but have never showed up here when they weren't "guaranteed" a slot. Dallas Buyers Club has shown up on all 3 other major guild awards so far, but Jean-Marc Vallee is the part of the film getting no real serious consideration. Will Woody Allen solidify his films chances here? Could Lee Daniels mark a return for The Butler?
My guess is that we will see:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
her
12 Years a Slave
With Dallas Buyers Club my dark horse.
In the 4 years since the Best Picture expansion, only 1 DGA nominee hasn't led to a Best Picture nominee (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo -- although that film ended up with a surprising 5 nominations). That means that we can assume that all the films cited tomorrow will pick up Best Picture nominees. Assuming that the 3 frontrunners all pick up DGA nods (American Hustle, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave), that means that 2 other films tomorrow should see their Best Picture chances solidify tomorrow.
That said, who do we think is going to show up? Martin Scorsese would seem a pretty strong bet (although his film probably needs this nomination the least), and Spike Jonze would seem like a likely fifth nominee. Alexander Payne seems like a strong alternate to those five. Paul Greengrass has never been nominated by the DGA, but his film feels very much like a directorial achievement that could show up here. The Coen Brothers have never done exceptionally well with the DGA -- they have 2 nominations and a win, but have never showed up here when they weren't "guaranteed" a slot. Dallas Buyers Club has shown up on all 3 other major guild awards so far, but Jean-Marc Vallee is the part of the film getting no real serious consideration. Will Woody Allen solidify his films chances here? Could Lee Daniels mark a return for The Butler?
My guess is that we will see:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
her
12 Years a Slave
With Dallas Buyers Club my dark horse.
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