Yes. As I've said before, I don't think Adams or anyone else will break through but if they should happen, then...Eric wrote:I mean, we are all in agreement that, despite all this talk of squeezing one out, the list of five names that have been at the top of every Oscar blogger's list for the last four months actually represents the most likely slate, right?
Mid-December Oscar Predictions
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19371
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
- Location: Jersey Shore
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
- Eric
- Tenured
- Posts: 2749
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 11:18 pm
- Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Contact:
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
I mean, we are all in agreement that, despite all this talk of squeezing one out, the list of five names that have been at the top of every Oscar blogger's list for the last four months actually represents the most likely slate, right?
-
- Emeritus
- Posts: 3650
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
- Location: Illinois
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
Kate Winslet in Carnage.flipp525 wrote:It would seem a rare event to me that a Tony-award winning stage role wouldn't at least be nominated (when was the last time that happened, just out of curiosity? Gwyneth in Proof). Meryl has eeked out an iffy nomination in equally stacked years (Music of the Heart in 1999, anyone?) I think it'll Bullock or even your precious Dench who will be bumped should Amy Adams make it in, Big Magilla.Big Magilla wrote:Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
Unless you include musicals, in which case Samantha Banks last year.
But this does feel different, as Streep is considered out greatest actress and Violet instantly became a classic role.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
- Minor Myers, Jr.
-
- Emeritus
- Posts: 4312
- Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
Maybe once people start seeing August: Osage County, they can tell me I'm crazy, but I find it very difficult to believe that actors won't completely eat up what Meryl Streep is doing in that movie. I think there will definitely be some detractors for her performance around here, but it's such a PERFORMANCE, from an actress who virtually has a placeholder spot kept for her on the Oscar ballot any time she does a movie, it's so hard for me to see her as the most vulnerable candidate. (I also think August: Osage County has a spot in the SAG Ensemble lineup.)
But, I've been wrong before, and in a tight race, someone has to get squeezed out, so as we keep saying, who knows.
But, I've been wrong before, and in a tight race, someone has to get squeezed out, so as we keep saying, who knows.
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
It would seem a rare event to me that a Tony-award winning stage role wouldn't at least be nominated (when was the last time that happened, just out of curiosity? Gwyneth in Proof?). Meryl has eeked out iffy nominations in equally stacked years (Music of the Heart in 1999, anyone?) I think it'll be Bullock or even your precious Dench who'll be bumped should Amy Adams make it in, Big Magilla.Big Magilla wrote:Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
Last edited by flipp525 on Mon Dec 09, 2013 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19371
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
- Location: Jersey Shore
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
They'll change their tune if he's nominated for a SAG on Wednesday.ksrymy wrote:Everyone is overlooking the fact that Geoffrey Rush in a Holocaust movie is the definition of Oscar bait.
I know it's not a box office sensation, but it should play very well on screeners, which is how most of the Academy membership views films these days.
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
Everyone is overlooking the fact that Geoffrey Rush in a Holocaust movie is the definition of Oscar bait.
"Men get to be a mixture of the charming mannerisms of the women they have known." - F. Scott Fitzgerald
-
- Emeritus
- Posts: 3650
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
- Location: Illinois
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
Magilla, for a tenth nominee I think Blue Jasmine or Fruitvale Station are both more likely.
I do see August Osage County losing steam pretty quickly, but I think Streep can maybe still hold on.
I would also put Jonah Hill in a pretty secure slot. Gandolfini is the weak nominee, but I don't think Bruhl or Rush has the push behind them to overtake him. They will need some major awards recognition this week.
I do see August Osage County losing steam pretty quickly, but I think Streep can maybe still hold on.
I would also put Jonah Hill in a pretty secure slot. Gandolfini is the weak nominee, but I don't think Bruhl or Rush has the push behind them to overtake him. They will need some major awards recognition this week.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
- Minor Myers, Jr.
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19371
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
- Location: Jersey Shore
Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions
My take on the top six categories.
If there is a tenth nominee for Best Picture it will be between Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club either one of which could bump Captain Phillips which seems to be losing steam from the nine.
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix (Her) could be the one to bump Hanks rather than DiCaprio, although both could make it, but at whose expense?
Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor - I would be shocked if Fassbender, Leto or Hanks are left out, but the other two slots still seem to me to be up for grabs with Daniel Bruhl (Rush) and Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief) poised to overtake Gandolfini and Hill.
Best Supporting Actress - Lawrence and Nyong'o are fairly certain at this point. Margo Martindale has a chance of overtaking Julia "I deserve another Oscar nomination" Roberts if Streep is nominated in lead but the escalating popularity of Her would seem to put Scarlett Johnasson (Her) in serious contention of being the first voice actor to be nominated for an Oscar. Despite the fact that Oprah Winfrey has not placed in any of the critics' groups voting doesn't mean her legion of friends in the Academy won't vote for her, though I think she could be left out especially if Octavia Spencer continues to win critics' awards.
Best Director - quite possibly the five, but never underestimate the Coens. They could get in over either Russell or Scorsese
If there is a tenth nominee for Best Picture it will be between Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club either one of which could bump Captain Phillips which seems to be losing steam from the nine.
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix (Her) could be the one to bump Hanks rather than DiCaprio, although both could make it, but at whose expense?
Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor - I would be shocked if Fassbender, Leto or Hanks are left out, but the other two slots still seem to me to be up for grabs with Daniel Bruhl (Rush) and Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief) poised to overtake Gandolfini and Hill.
Best Supporting Actress - Lawrence and Nyong'o are fairly certain at this point. Margo Martindale has a chance of overtaking Julia "I deserve another Oscar nomination" Roberts if Streep is nominated in lead but the escalating popularity of Her would seem to put Scarlett Johnasson (Her) in serious contention of being the first voice actor to be nominated for an Oscar. Despite the fact that Oprah Winfrey has not placed in any of the critics' groups voting doesn't mean her legion of friends in the Academy won't vote for her, though I think she could be left out especially if Octavia Spencer continues to win critics' awards.
Best Director - quite possibly the five, but never underestimate the Coens. They could get in over either Russell or Scorsese
-
- Emeritus
- Posts: 3650
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
- Location: Illinois
Mid-December Oscar Predictions
Figured I would start a new thread. Here's how things look for right now, in my book:
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Spike Jonze, her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughy, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, The Dallas Buyer’s Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
June Squibb, Nebraska
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
12 Years a Slave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Book Thief
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Monster’s University
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST SONG
“In the Middle of the Night” from Lee Daniels’ The Butler
“Let it Go” from Frozen
“Rise Up” from Epic
“Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
“The Moon Song” from her
BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Pacific Rim
Rush
BEST SOUND EDITING
Captain Phillips
Frozen
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Spike Jonze, her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughy, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, The Dallas Buyer’s Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
June Squibb, Nebraska
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
12 Years a Slave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Book Thief
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Monster’s University
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
BEST SONG
“In the Middle of the Night” from Lee Daniels’ The Butler
“Let it Go” from Frozen
“Rise Up” from Epic
“Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
“The Moon Song” from her
BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Pacific Rim
Rush
BEST SOUND EDITING
Captain Phillips
Frozen
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Star Trek Into Darkness
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
- Minor Myers, Jr.