BJ makes some very valid points and I really think, even without seeing his performance, that Bradley Cooper hasn't a hope in hell of gaining a nomination in such a competitive year. His major handicap is the baggage his carries from a string of awful films, with generally awful performances to match. Though he wasn't too bad in Limitless. In a weak year maybe but this year is far from that. Richard Gere has more of chance of nomination then Cooper and Gere's chances a tiny to none.The Original BJ wrote:Some Best Actor-y thoughts:
Bradley Cooper has the opposite problem. I found him completely delightful in Silver Linings, in a part that shows a good bit of dramatic/comedic range, and made me view him as almost a completely different type of actor than I had in the past. And his movie is undoubtedly a major Oscar player. But it's a lot easier for women to be rewarded the first time they make a serious movie -- not being thought of as an awards-type actor generally hurts the guys as much as it helps the girls.
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One could almost place Hugh Jackman in the same situation except that he has had a respectable stage career including a Tony under his belt and he hosted the Oscars a couple of years for a show which was generally well received (I can't comment personally as I didn't watch it). Les Mis looks like it make play to his limited strengths.
I don't think anyone in this category is a lock and the critics awards probably won't make much difference if there are spread across a number of actors. Just ask Paul Giamanti & Liam Neeson who won New York and LA respectively for Sideways and Kinsey and then failed to gain nominations. Giamanti 's omission was most baffling as the film was a critical and commercial success. Go figure that one.
It's important to remember that whilst Lincoln may resonate with American critics and audiences it's likely to be a very different situation outside of the U.S. and this could hinder Day Lewis.
There will no doubt be a couple of shock omissions in this category.
I would rate the contenders as such:
Locks - none
Very likely to receive a nomination but could miss out - John Hawkes, Daniel Day Lewis
Likely to be nominated would be still be considered a shock omission - Denzel Washington, Jaoquin Phoneix (Phoneix is very vulnerable. The Master has failed at the box office in the U.S. and is not doing any better overseas as it starts it's international roll out. He is really going to need critic citations and even then it could result in no nomination).
Fighting for the final spot or spots if any of the above miss out - Hugh Jackman, Jean-Louis Trintignant (this years Gary Oldman?)
Longshots - will be a surprise to me if they make the cut but anything is possible - Philip Seymour Hoffman, Anthony Hopkins, Richard Gere & Bradley Cooper.