Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Gah. Paramount, not Warners...gah. I don't know why I keep confusing the two.

Paramount sent Selma screeners out to Academy members. Guild members who are also Academy members got them. Non-Academy guild members did not.

I find the case of Unbroken interesting. Here is a film with no big stars in front of the screen. It's populated with people whom I have never heard of before. Somehow against mediocre reviews it's grossed $87 million in two weeks against a $65 million budget before it truly opens up overseas. This film is a hit and yet it has the whiff of death on it like nothing else this holiday season. Coupled with those embarrassing emails that popped up about Angelina Jolie which caused her to cancel her appearances, it seems like a parentless child.

The Academy Award balloting will close in three days, before the Director's Guild of America voting deadline, so perhaps even that will not tell us whether we should start leaving Selma off our prediction ballots. Since they expanded their nominees to ten, more often than not the Producer's Guild of America has been wrong about two of their nominees. But more illuminating is the kinds of movies they've left off: Philomena, Amour, Bridesmaids, The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Winter's Bone, A Serious Man, and The Blind Side. None of those feel like the kind of contender that Selma should be.

It would seem as though Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything are pretty safe. If Winter's Bone can get in without a Prooducer's Guild of America nomination, that should tell you something about Whiplash's chances. That leaves American Sniper and Nightcrawler to compete with Selma for perhaps a ten movie slate.

If Selma's failure to get nominated is due to lack of screeners, I'd say this is a colossal campaign/release date miscalculation on the part of Paramount. I think Selma is a way better movie than more than half of these nominees, and squarely within the kind of historical/inspiring territory that gets far lesser movies (as evidenced by some on this list) in awards territory. There's no reason for it not to be showing up here. Okri's suggestion that DuVernay might be left off the DGA list seems all too probable at this point, and the movie seems to have slipped from Best Picture win contender to fighting for a nomination in startling time. (I'm not one to easily cry "racism!" any time certain candidates don't get awards...but I see no way this conversation doesn't eventually head in that direction, especially if Oscar passes too.)

I also question why Into the Woods hasn't been doing better, given the respectable reviews and now huge box office. You have to wonder if, after numerous musicals were pegged as Best Picture frontrunners (Dreamgirls, Les Mis) only to become non-contenders (literally in Dreamgirls's sake, practically for Les Mis), folks took a lot more hesitant approach towards Into the Woods, ironically costing a candidate that turned out to be far better than many expected. (I think it's light years better than Les Mis, but at this point two years ago people were still talking about Les Mis as a potential winner, despite far worse reviews, simply based on fore-ordained buzz.)

I sort of have to laugh a little at the headlines reading "Unbroken Snubbed at PGA." Are people just refusing to throw in the towel on that one? It's had a disastrous precursor run, and received lousy reviews -- why would it still be in the conversation?

Selma's issue is entirely the fault of Warner Bros. They have screwed the pooch two years in a row. They almost torpedoed Wolf of Wall Street, now they are trying to destroy Selma as well.

Selma may still show up (since the Academy will undoubtedly have screeners), but this is certainly not good at all. American Sniper is sure to get nominated at this point.

Selma is officially in crisis mode.

Other notable items: Unbroken fails with the Guild probably most disposed to push it best picture-ward. Into the Woods as well. American Sniper is the awards season sleeper. Foxcatcher is holding up better than I anticipated. Nightcrawler continues to score almost everywhere -- remarkable for a film that Toronto fans universally viewed as un-AMPAS.

But, repeating: Selma's absence makes one wonder if its awards potential was utter fantasy. If not for the Globe/Broadcasters citations -- and those are based on perception-of-strength, not anything tangible -- we'd have no reason whatever to believe it was a best picture hopeful, and plenty of reason to call it out of the race.

After the ACE Eddie and now with PGA and ADG, are we underestimating American Sniper? And Selma isn't doing well.

Ø American Sniper (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Producers: Bradley Cooper, p.g.a., Clint Eastwood, p.g.a., Andrew Lazar, p.g.a., Robert Lorenz, p.g.a., Peter Morgan, p.g.a.

Ø Birdman (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Producers: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole

Ø Boyhood (IFC Films)
Producers: Richard Linklater, p.g.a., Cathleen Sutherland, p.g.a.

Ø Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Megan Ellison, p.g.a., Jon Kilik, p.g.a., Bennett Miller, p.g.a.

Ø Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Producer: Ceán Chaffin, p.g.a.

Ø The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Producers: Wes Anderson & Scott Rudin, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

Ø The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company)
Producers: Nora Grossman, p.g.a., Ido Ostrowsky, p.g.a., Teddy Schwarzman, p.g.a.

Ø Nightcrawler (Open Road Films)
Producers: Jennifer Fox, Tony Gilroy

Ø The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)
Producers: Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten

Ø Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster