Re: SAG Thoughts
Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:14 pm
I have mostly the same reactions as BJ. Blanchett is doing exactly what many of us thought she'd do from the start -- steamrolling through the season -- and, as if she needed the boost, her speech totally killed. She could conceivably lose BAFTA to hometown girl Judi Dench, but that won't mean any more than the Geoffrey Rush/Helena Bonham Carter blips in 2010.
Leto is also coasting, something that seemed it would happen after his (somewhat unexpected) run of the "real" critics awards. He's not exactly AMPAS' type, but, like Mo'Nique, his performance squelches any objection.
I already did my best actor reaction this afternoon. I stand by what I said -- McConaughey (spelled correctly!) is the front-runner, but not invulnerable -- though I fully expect the Internet crowd to proclaim the race over.
Nyong'o proved she could get a large group to single her out -- albeit a group that was probably averse to giving Jennifer Lawrence back-to-back wins. This definitely undercuts the narrative (promulgated by, among others, me) that people might find her role too small to choose. It was a clear step forward, but I don't think it quite seals the deal.
When Nyong'o won, folks at other sites immediately jumped to the conclusion 12 Years was taking ensemble. That would have been a huge plus for 12 Years -- creating the notion, based on a week's worth of activity, that it may stumble along the way, but in the end it will always take the top prize. That sense of ultimate bulletproof-ness is now gone; we indeed have the start of the 3-way race we've been expecting. In fact, the only way the best picture race can be ruined now is if the two guilds coming in the next seven days both choose American Hustle -- which isn't out of the question (people are widely assuming Cuaron for DGA, but the same people assumed David Fincher), but seems unlikely.
But, as BJ says, it's not as if this vaults American Hustle into any commanding lead; it could just be another Sideways/Little Miss Sunshine (funny how willing SAG is to give what is at least frequently considered their best picture award to a comedy -- maybe they really believe that "Dying is easy, comedy's hard" thing). As one who always roots for these damn prelims not to wreck the Oscars, I'm of course hoping things stay up in the air all season long.
Leto is also coasting, something that seemed it would happen after his (somewhat unexpected) run of the "real" critics awards. He's not exactly AMPAS' type, but, like Mo'Nique, his performance squelches any objection.
I already did my best actor reaction this afternoon. I stand by what I said -- McConaughey (spelled correctly!) is the front-runner, but not invulnerable -- though I fully expect the Internet crowd to proclaim the race over.
Nyong'o proved she could get a large group to single her out -- albeit a group that was probably averse to giving Jennifer Lawrence back-to-back wins. This definitely undercuts the narrative (promulgated by, among others, me) that people might find her role too small to choose. It was a clear step forward, but I don't think it quite seals the deal.
When Nyong'o won, folks at other sites immediately jumped to the conclusion 12 Years was taking ensemble. That would have been a huge plus for 12 Years -- creating the notion, based on a week's worth of activity, that it may stumble along the way, but in the end it will always take the top prize. That sense of ultimate bulletproof-ness is now gone; we indeed have the start of the 3-way race we've been expecting. In fact, the only way the best picture race can be ruined now is if the two guilds coming in the next seven days both choose American Hustle -- which isn't out of the question (people are widely assuming Cuaron for DGA, but the same people assumed David Fincher), but seems unlikely.
But, as BJ says, it's not as if this vaults American Hustle into any commanding lead; it could just be another Sideways/Little Miss Sunshine (funny how willing SAG is to give what is at least frequently considered their best picture award to a comedy -- maybe they really believe that "Dying is easy, comedy's hard" thing). As one who always roots for these damn prelims not to wreck the Oscars, I'm of course hoping things stay up in the air all season long.