Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

I doubted Waltz would be nominated.

But I suck at this.

OscarGuy wrote:Here's the problem with your assertion, flipp. It's not that it doesn't have merit, but you chose someone who is an inappropriate comparison. NO ONE doubted Waltz would be nominated. He was in the conversation for a very long time and no one ever thought he'd miss the cut. The win was what was debatable and he might be a better comparison to Jennifer Lawrence winning a second Oscar than Octavia Spencer skating in by the skin of her teeth after virtually falling off the radar.

There may be better examples for Spencer than Waltz as I don't think the situations are similar enough to warrant comparison.

I would have to go back and look through my stuff, but I think a lot of us doubted Waltz as a nominee last year and had Leo down instead.

rolotomasi99 wrote:Shocking-but-plausible Best Picture nomination:

The Book Thief

I second that.

I could also see

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Her

Supporting Actor
Will Forte - Nebraska

Here's the problem with your assertion, flipp. It's not that it doesn't have merit, but you chose someone who is an inappropriate comparison. NO ONE doubted Waltz would be nominated. He was in the conversation for a very long time and no one ever thought he'd miss the cut. The win was what was debatable and he might be a better comparison to Jennifer Lawrence winning a second Oscar than Octavia Spencer skating in by the skin of her teeth after virtually falling off the radar.

There may be better examples for Spencer than Waltz as I don't think the situations are similar enough to warrant comparison.

62% isn't great, but I don't know how anyone could say Hitchcock was a very good film at all.

Sad to say, yes, that's a stretch:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/hitchcock/

There were plenty of bush-league critics out there who were tickled by this piece of Fan Mag 101.

mlrg wrote:- Hitchcock was universally panned

This is a stretch.

FilmFan720 wrote:In the last two years, we have seen 3 Best Actress contenders with the trifecta of precursor nods (GG, SAG, BAFTA) not get an Oscar nod (Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton). Note that all 3 were previous winners who were in films not overly beloved (2 of those films got no Oscar nods), so things could bode poorly for Emma Thompson or Judi Dench.

Good point, but:

- Hitchcock was universally panned
- Rust and Bone was a foreign language film
- We Need to talk about Kevin was a "difficult film"

Furthermore neither of these three films had any shot of any other major nomination.

I think neither of this applies to either Saving Mr. Banks or Philomena.

No, OscarGuy, I don't think it's a bad comparison. It's just not the carbon copy duplicate situation you're apparently looking for. The analogy I was (I think, successfully) making was the fact that a recent past win doesn't necessarily hamper one's chances at another nomination soon after.

If there's a surprise inclusion in Best Actor, I think it's Christian Bale who makes it in. I think Bruce Dern could be a surprise exclusion.

However, regarding the Christoph Waltz comparison, I think that's a bad comparison Waltz picked up five precursors for his performance (including a Golden Globe and BAFTA). Octavia has, so far, only picked up a nod from NBR. That might be enough, but Waltz was in a huge, end-of-year blockbuster that went on to claim 5 nominations. Fruitvale Station is barely a blip in memory (and isn't really a blockbuster) and has been left off most accolade lists all year. It's entirely possible that Octavia Spencer will be nominated, she's still on my list as a potential. However, I don't think the Waltz comparison is that appropriate at this juncture.

Shocking-but-plausible Best Picture nomination:

The Book Thief

What kind of baggage is winning two years ago anymore? Didn't Christoph Waltz, a relative unknown to American audiences, just win three years after his first gong? I would think that, if anything, the fact that she won two years ago would work in her favor. She in the "club" now and a nomination would be seen as "See! We made the right choice in anointing her."

One of the great things about Spencer's performance in Fruitvale Station is that it isn't set up with your typical big look-at-me Oscar scenes. She's just quietly devastating throughout, even when in the background. I'd say it trumps her albeit excellent work in The Help. I think Oprah will be left off in favor of her. Is anyone talking about The Butler anymore?

As for my surprise inclusion, I'm going with the one I've had a feeling about for quite some time now: Joaquin Phoenix in her for Best Actor.

Octavia Spencer performance even with baggage of winning 2 years ago, massively underloved film expecting 0 other nominatkons is still >>>> Jennifer Garner performance, well liked, extremely benign real life persona, newly Oscar beloved husband in contrastly massively overachievimg film expecting across the board nominations and possibly a sweep of male acting awards

Please, pleaae no Jennifer Garner on Thursday AM

I mentioned in another thread that in the 4 years since the expansion, we have seen at least one movie a year get a Best Picture nomination with no guild support (no PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, WGA or BAFTA nomination). This year, all of the films everyone has on their prediction list has at least one of those guild citations except Inside Llewyn Davis (which did manage a Golden Globe nod and an AFI citation, something some of the other films didn't have).

But here's the thing...everyone of those films got a Picture nod along with either an acting nod (Extremely Loud, Winter's Bone, Blind Side) or a director nod (Tree of Life) or both (Amour). So does Inside Llewyn Davis have to show up somewhere? Is there another nominee that we have been over looking? In such a spread out year, there aren't any major acting possibilities that shown up on some guild lists (August: Osage County; Philomena; Blue Jasmine) except one: RUSH, which only has a GG nod to its name.

So, don't be too shocked if it comes back to grab a Best Picture nomination, a la The Blindside or Extremely Loud...

Other thoughts:

I have a gut feeling that Fruitvale Station may not be as dead as we thought, and I could see a possibility where Octavia Spencer sneaks back in.

For the past three years, there has also been at least one director nominee with no precursor nominations (GG, DGA, BAFTA)...so look for Spike Jonze, the Coen Bros. (who did this in 2009), Jean-Marc Vallee or a bigger surprise to come up.

Speaking of Spike Jonze, he could be the biggest winner on Thursday, with a meaningful shot at 4 nominations (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Song!)

In the last two years, we have seen 3 Best Actress contenders with the trifecta of precursor nods (GG, SAG, BAFTA) not get an Oscar nod (Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton). Note that all 3 were previous winners who were in films not overly beloved (2 of those films got no Oscar nods), so things could bode poorly for Emma Thompson or Judi Dench.

I can see Adele Exarchopoulos in the best actress category.

Also, Jennifer Garner for Dallas Buyers Club or Margot Robbie in Wolf of Wall Street could surprise in the best supporting actress category if they really love the movies.