Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Both Dench and Streep are Harvey's Girls this year. If last year is any indication, his nominating prowess is weakening. He doesn't have the TIFF Audience Award to back him up this year and he's once again ignoring a number of the critics groups that have supported him in the past. What's more telling is that he's usually doing better than expected by this point, but with a weak showing at Spirit and Satellite Awards, I'd say he has his work cut out for him. Streep won't campaign, but Dench has been. As much as critics will undoubtedly love Streep in A:OC, Philomena has a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes (average 7. and while A:OC hasn't opened yet, it's been screened at festivals and has a 75% with a 6.2 average rating at RT. A:OC isn't doing well with critics and unless Harvey really puts himself behind Philomena, The Butler or Fruitvale Station, he may find himself without a pony.

And Tee, don't count Philomena as a mediocre movie (as specified above). And I've seen Saving Mr. Banks. Thompson is definitely in this thing and her film is far better than it has any right to be considering how much of it has been altered from historical evidence.

One thing that makes predicting the 3-4-5 slots for best actress difficult this year is the fact three of the candidates -- Adams, Streep and Thompson -- won't be viewable for another week or two, which is after the BFCA/SAG/Globe nominations are released (and I haven't trundled over to Dench's movie yet, either). So, many of us are stabbing in the dark. It does seem like Streep/Thompson/Dench are drawing from the same pool (mediocre/old-fashioned movie, much-loved former winner in strong role), suggesting the omittee (omittees, if Adams and Exarchopulous both manage to slip in) will come from among them. But you can make good arguments against any of them being omittable.

The Original BJ wrote:Having seen August: Osage County, I find it really hard to imagine that Streep in that role doesn't make it onto the shortlist.

But...I guess I should take my own argument to heart: someone isn't going to make it, and right now there's no real way to know who, so maybe you guys are right that it's at least a possibility.

You might look at what happened to Streep in The Hours for historical back-up. I mean, she's certainly come in "sixth" before. Of course, she had her own co-star Kidman to contend with that year, but still, it seems like a somewhat analogous situation.

Has anyone actually seen Philomena? Is Dench reinventing the wheel here (as Big Magilla keeps saying) or is this one of her always-competent placeholder nominations? As Eric said, she could also be bringing up the rear here.

It's too soon to tell of course, but if critical attention and box-office performance are two of the biggest factors going into the race, Dench and Streep stand to be at the back of the pack.

Having seen August: Osage County, I find it really hard to imagine that Streep in that role doesn't make it onto the shortlist.

But...I guess I should take my own argument to heart: someone isn't going to make it, and right now there's no real way to know who, so maybe you guys are right that it's at least a possibility.

mlrg wrote:

Eric wrote:There's always the chance that August: Osage County's chances get mercy-killed by critics.

This!

Meryl Streep is the weakest link of the 6 considered for best actress

Yes, I'd never thought I'd say so, but of these six Streep may be the one who doesn't make it (if American Hustle proves to be really popular, obviously).

Eric wrote:There's always the chance that August: Osage County's chances get mercy-killed by critics.

This!

Meryl Streep is the weakest link of the 6 considered for best actress

There's always the chance that August: Osage County's chances get mercy-killed by critics.

To just elaborate on what I wrote yesterday re: the Best Actress category, that strong NY runner-up placement from Amy Adams (and the trade reviews for her today) show that she has to be considered in the conversation now, which means we've definitely got six actresses gunning for five Best Actress slots. (I'm assuming we'll have to be content with a critics award or two for Exarchopoulos, as it unfortunately seems impossible that she'll break through a slate of such established actresses with Oscar.)

But...it's hard to come up with any strong reason why one of them would fail. I assume there's zero chance Blanchett or Streep miss. Bullock's performance isn't at that level, but she's got her movie's sensational box office and the solo act nature of the role. Judi Dench is pretty much Judi Dench in a Judi Dench movie...but that isn't something voters usually pass on. I haven't seen Hustle or Saving Mr. Banks yet to get information, but Amy Adams playing against-type in a critics' fave (that seems poised to be a popular hit) and Emma Thompson returning to contention in a biopic (that also seems poised to be an audience success) seem like exceedingly strong candidates as well.

It may well be that whoever gets squeezed out does so like John Hawkes did last year, where you can't really come up with any reason why he WOULDN'T get nominated, but in the end, there are just only five spots, and someone has to come in sixth.

Eric wrote:The Luise Rainer jinx? You mean the same curse that Katherine Hepburn, Tom Hanks, Jason Robards and Spencer Tracy suffered?

Those actors had been established stars, if not legends, when they won their back-to-back Oscars. A more recent example of the so-called Oscar jinx would be Hilary Swank who won two Oscars five years apart and although she keeps working hasn't been a serious awards contender in nine years. Lawrence may have more staying power, but the same industry fans who applaud her today may well consider her old news by her 24th birthday next August.

Yeah, in that respect, his last paragraph is very telling.

This is most likely the last ballot I’ll cast for the NYFCC. In the two years since I parted ways with the Village Voice, I feel less and less obliged to keep up with new releases—although I’m still interested in writing criticism. My journalistic jones will be satisfied once, filling the irreplaceable Dave Kehr’s vacated spot, I start regularly reviewing DVDs for the New York Times in mid-January. That new gig (and a long vacation) means that my contributions to the Movie Journal blog that Artinfo has hosted since March 2012 will be a lot more sporadic in the future.

Eric wrote:J. Hoberman comments and offers his proxy ballot:

http://blogs.artinfo.com/moviejournal/2 ... s-hustlin/

the silence surrounding the new Martin Scorsese film, “The Wolf of Wall Street” (which I also haven’t seen) is deafening.

Those are by and large mainstream choices by Hoberman standards. I remember, back in the day, one of his fellow VV critics saying he felt good about himself if he'd even heard of most of the films on Hoberman's ten best list.

J. Hoberman comments and offers his proxy ballot:

http://blogs.artinfo.com/moviejournal/2 ... s-hustlin/

the silence surrounding the new Martin Scorsese film, “The Wolf of Wall Street” (which I also haven’t seen) is deafening.

The Luise Rainer jinx? You mean the same curse that Katherine Hepburn, Tom Hanks, Jason Robards and Spencer Tracy suffered?

Big Magilla wrote:There are those who seriously think Jennifer Lawrence not only has a strong shot at a nomination this year, but another win putting her in dangerous Luise Rainer Oscar jinx territory.

I would rate Jennifer Lawrence's chances of a second consecutive win higher than Judi Dench's chances in Best Actress this year, not something I necessarily would've said a month ago.