Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Big congratulations to Sabin, who picks the most correct winners under film/directing/acting by correctly naming Bruce Dern.

I finish second, by having Dern as my runner-up.

That's right: not a single one of NBR's other choices in the prime categories turned up in any of our predictions/runners-up. THAT'S how wildly this year is starting out.

After watching the new trailer for Her I made a few last minute changes to my original predictions.

I replaced August: Osage County and Captain Phillips on the ten best list with Her and American Hustle. I also replaced Jennifer Garner with Jennifer Lawrence as the alternate in Supporting Actress and replaced Gravity and Cuaron with Wolf of Wall Street and Scorsese as alternates in Best Picture and Director. I also fixed Foreign Film, substituting The Past for No. However, as these things tend to go, except for Foreign Film, I was probably closer to what they'll do with my original predictions.

Sabin wrote:Special Achievement in Filmmaking – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Damn, I meant to put that one down myself. I don't know why, but it seems just the sort of way they'd honor it.

Reports have been that the group's membership has changed over the last half-decade, which is why you can no longer count on the retro The Hours/Finding Neverland-ish best picture choices (I remember we were all blown away when they picked No Country for Old Men and passed on Atonement). It makes them a lot harder to handicap.

Not wasting much time on these. There's no rhyme or reason to these fucking people. The last five winners were Zero Dark Thirty, Hugo, The Social Network, Up in the Air, and Slumdog Millionaire. What do these movies have in common? With the exception of Hugo, they look like they're going to win Best Picture at the time. In 2011, nothing really looked to me like it was going to win Best Picture so I'll chalk that one up. 12 Years a Slave seems to fit in that company.

National Board of Review
Best English-Language Film – 12 Years a Slave
• All is Lost
• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Lee Daniels’ The Butler
• Nebraska
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Lead Male – Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Best Lead Female – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Male – Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Supporting Female – June Squibb, Nebraska
Best Director – David O. Russell, American Hustle
Breakthrough Male – Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Breakthrough Female – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay – Nebraska
Best Adapted Screenplay – 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature – The Wind Rises
Special Achievement in Filmmaking – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Directorial Debut – Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
Best Ensemble Cast – American Hustle
Spotlight Award – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud, and The Wolf of Wall Street
NBR Freedom of Expression Award – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

It was shown at the 2012 New York Film Festival where most members likely saw it.

No shouldn't have been eligible last year, the only reason they likely included it was because it was on the Academy's foreign language list. It didn't get a release until 2013.

Mister Tee wrote:Her (noted at another site: every Spike Jonze film -- including Where the Wild Things Are -- has made their top ten)

I had Her on my original list, replaced it at the last minute with Wolf of Wall Street. I'm thinking they'll go for one or the other, but not both.

flipp525 wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:(r-u Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club)

Even as a runner-up, this choice makes very little sense to me. Jennifer Garner, while completely competent in Dallas Buyers Club, doesn't really do much to warrant awards recognition, especially when compared to both of her male co-stars. She's perfectly fine, but I wouldn't expect her to pick up any awards traction.

Probably so. I was expecting Lupita Nyong'o to take the NYFCC and NBR to subsequently go in a different direction. I'm still thinking Scarlett Johnassen looks good here. NBR loves to reward performers in multiple films. Johanssen also has Don John this year.

Mister Tee wrote:NOTE TO MAGILLA: I was looking at last year's choices, and No was on that list, so I presume it's not eligible this year

Damn. I thought I checked that. Replace with The Past.

Predictions, with a few explanatory notes.

Best Film: 12 Years a Slave

Additional Top Ten:

American Hustle
August: Osage County (or: How to Get Producer Clooney to Show up)
The Butler
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her (noted at another site: every Spike Jonze film -- including Where the Wild Things Are -- has made their top ten)
Inside Llewyn Davis (they also love the Coens: even Burn After Reading made the list)
Nebraska
Prisoners (random non-Oscar-contending film, from their beloved Warner Brothers)
Saving Mr. Banks (film history is a favorite at this group -- see best picture pick Hugo)

Foreign Film: Wajdja

Additional Top Five:
Blue is the Warmest Color
Gloria
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past

NOTE TO MAGILLA: I was looking at last year's choices, and No was on that list, so I presume it's not eligible this year

Director: Alfonso Cuaron
(ru: Steve McQueen)
Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
(ru: Bruce Dern)
Actress: Cate Blanchett
(ru: Judi Dench)
Sup. Actor: Michael Fassbender
(ru: Jared Leto)
Sup. Actress: June Squibb
(ru: Lupita Nyong'o)
Ad. Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
(ru: August: Osage County)
Orig. Screenplay: Nebraska
(ru: Her)
Ensemble: August: Osage County
(ru: American Hustle)
Animated: Frozen
Breakthrough Male: Michael B. Jordan
(ru: Barkhad Abdi)
Breakthrough Female: Lupita Nyong'o
(ru: Adele Exarchopoulos)
Non-Fiction Film: The Armstrong Lie
(ru: 20 Feet from Stardom)

Big Magilla wrote:(r-u Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club)

Even as a runner-up, this choice makes very little sense to me. Jennifer Garner, while completely competent in Dallas Buyers Club, doesn't really do much to warrant awards recognition, especially when compared to both of her male co-stars. She's perfectly fine, but I wouldn't expect her to pick up any awards traction.

On the other hand, I think Jared Leto will take several of these precursors and deservedly so. He's outstanding.

top categories

Best Film - 12 Years a Slave (r-u Gravity)
Director - Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (r-u Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity)
Actor - Matthew McCoughney, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud (r-u Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave)
Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (r-u Judi Dench, Philomena )
Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (r-u Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave)
Supporting Actress - Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (r-u Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniel's The Butler)

Mister Tee wrote:

Eric wrote:LOL, all in for Dench, are we, Magilla? (That said, I buy it it actually coming to pass via the NBR waaaay more than I do the NYFCC.)

If he predicts her for NSFC, we may have to consider an intervention.

NSFC no; LA no; NBR maybe not considering they went for Mia Farrow in Alice when nobody else did - Joanne Woodward in Mr. & Mrs. Bridge and Anjelica Huston in The Grifters were the critics' faves that year.

As for the NYFC, this is the group that went for Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea, not the group that went for Cameron Diaz in There's Something About Mary.

Best Film - 12 Years a Slave (r-u Gravity)
Director - Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Colour (r-u Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity)
Actor - Matthew McConnaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (r-u Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave)
Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (r-u Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha)
Supporting Actor - Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (r-u Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club)
Supporting Actress - Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Colour (r-u Scarlett Johansson, Her)
Foreign Language Film - Blue is the Warmest Colour (r-u The Hunt)
Animated Feature - The Wind Rises (r-u Frozen)
Original Screenplay - Frances Ha (r-u Before Midnight)
Adapted Screenplay - 12 Years a Slave (r-u no clue)
Directorial Debut - Ryan Coogler, Frutivale Station (r-u Josph Gordon Levitt - Don John)
Ensemble - 12 Years a Slave (r-u Saving Mr. Banks)
Breakthrough Performance: Actor - Michael B. Jordan, Frutivale Station (r-u David Oyelowo, The Butler)
Breakthrough Performance: Actress - Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (r-u Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color)

By that time, I expect the Blanchett steamroller will have dashed any lingering hopes.